I have been interested in military strategy since I was a child, so much so that I made the decision to pursue this interest at the university level.
I have been exposed to a variety of opinions on many different military subjects, and I must say that my least favorite topic is the modern world. I
much prefer the simplicity of historical conflicts, lol. History has a way of becoming less convoluted as time goes on and the picture becomes a bit
clearer. The allies had no idea of the extent of the Holocaust as it was occurring, and history operates this way whenever there are people to protect
and maintain a specific story. But then again, the winners write history, although eventually the truth usually comes out. Anyway, modern conflicts
are too confusing for my tastes, and we will not know the extent of things until well into the future.
I have considered the idea of revolution within the US, and have studied the potential outcomes to the best of my abilities, and I have concluded that
things are not so obvious. What I mean is that there are so many potentialities that it is impossible to predict the course of events. You claim that
revolution within the US would weaken the nation, and there is no disputing this fact. It would basically open up an entirely new war if the divided
US were invaded by a foreign power, and the federal government would have to deal with fighting two enemies. But then again, the rebellious side would
also have to fight these invaders. It is not out of the realm of possibility that the warring parties within the US would actually stop fighting one
another in an attempt to repel the invaders. But this is assuming an invasion occurs, and I do not think this is inevitable.
One thing history teaches us is that when a revolution occurs within a nation, many other nations around the world will throw their hat in with one
side or the other, or will stay out of the conflict. What will likely occur is that the main US allies will side with the federal government, while
other nations will indirectly, not directly, support the rebellious faction. But they will only do this after squeezing certain concessions out of the
rebels, ensuring that if they win the supporting nation will get something in return. Often times this will be a military alliance, or the
establishing of good diplomatic and economic relations. I've never seen nations establish sexual relations, but we should try that. It would be cool.
So like I said, it is not a given that other nations would automatically invade. They are much more likely to support one side or the other.
A rebelling force will face some of the same problems the Confederacy faced during the Civil War. The Confederate Navy was so useless that it might as
well have been non-existent. A rebelling force would have to seize a wide variety of government materiel and hardware to even put up a conventional
fight. If the rebellious forces were partisan, then you have essentially got the entire power of the federal navy with little to do. That means that
you've got the entire might of the US Navy that would be prowling, and could be used to put an end to any invasion attempt. Because any invasion
attempt, in lieu of the position of North America in relation to potentially dangerous countries, would come by sea. It is not like Europe, were
ground forces can be sent in across land. It would be totally impractical to fly a large invasion force in to the US. Plus, you would have to have
ships to supply these forces, and these ships would be decimated by the US submarine fleet alone.
It should be noted that the only chance of success a revolutionary force would have is to be a guerrilla or partisan force. Unless there was a
significantly large portion of the US that revolted, but even then the federal government will retain the majority of military power, which basically
forces the rebelling forces into a partisan force, no matter how much they try to be conventional. I cannot stress enough how useless it would be for
a rebelling force to attempt to go toe to toe with the US military. They are too strong and too technologically superior. Even if the rebels could
seize some federal supplies and hardware, this will make little difference. And nowadays it costs so much money to produce the high-tech war machines
that a rebel force would be stressed economically. Look at what happened to the South in the Civil War. It would probably be worse than that in
economic terms, again because it costs so much more to field a modern military force. But if you've only got partisan forces, which again is the most
likely scenario, then it is difficult to establish an entirely new government as the South did. Plus, forces move a whole lot faster, and it would be
virtually impossible for a rebel government to avoid capture, since they would be a technological disadvantage. If the federal government wants to
find you, and will use their resources, they will find you. Just look at how they caught Escobar back in the 90's. And we have much better technology
now. What I mean is that simply talking on a phone will give away your position, meaning you have to have lots of technical personnel. Basically, you
would have to have half of the country's job force just to function conventionally.
My main point is this: a rebelling force would be wiped out before they got fully mobilized. An all out civil war within the US will NOT happen
anytime soon. It is virtually impossible for a rebel force to succeed. The only hope is to go underground, but this means there are fewer federal
troops tied down, meaning that the federal military would essentially be at the same strength, since there are no massive battles going on. So you
would not have sheer chaos, which another nation could take advantage of. And let's say another nation did invade. You would have UN troops, or allied
troops, coming to the aid of the US. Just look at how many countries were willing to send troops into the Middle East. You can be sure that these same
nations would jump to the defense of the US, especially when the US made promises, which they would do, if they needed aid. So I just do not see any
revolution amounting to much. There are ways that a revolution could succeed, but it would take time, and it would consist of roving bands of
guerrilla forces, making locating them difficult. When you use larger or more conventional forces, your signature is much larger, meaning it is easier
for such groups to be found and then destroyed. Those who talk of revolution today do not realize what they are saying. They do not realize that there
would probably never be enough people willing to fight. Then they do not take actual military matters into consideration. I can guarantee you that the
Pentagon is not worried about a revolution in the US, at least not anything akin to the Civil War. I'm sure they've developed plans for such, but that
is just because that is part of their job. They probably have plans for invading Canada as well, but that will never happen. That is what government
do. So I can say with extreme confidence that if a revolution ever breaks out, it will be over before it has achieved anything meaningful. Unless
there is a significant portion of the population behind it, which is unlikely to happen.
edit on 1/21/15 by JiggyPotamus because: (no reason