OPINION: The US-Dollar is ... SO STRONG !!!

The US-Dollar is ... SO STRONG !!!

US-Dollar:

SILVER:

Crude-Oil:

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OBSERVATIONS-n-OPINIONS:

The US-Dollar is ... SO STRONG ... that if it begins to show any signs of weakness ...

I'm now beginning to suspect to soon ( 3-months? ) see some (potentially) Big-Whop'n-Inflation.

Silver ( and gold not shown ) is beginning to show some signs of rebounds ( even in the eye of a strong dollar ) causes me to suspect Crude-Oil ( and most commodities ) is not far from a rebounds.

Where do I think Crude-Oil could rebound ???

North of ... 120.

( it's time for the ATS Financial-Boys-n-Gals to speak-out )
.
Real Time Futures Chart

You could be very right...but not for a while on the oil I thinks....maybe by fall or late summer itll rise to that.....
Silver looks to be taking a run though....AND I THINKS ILL GET SOME MORE....

a reply to: FarleyWayne

The dollar is strong, for now.

I believe you are right though.

Crude will rebound big as soon as the fracking industry in america shuts down cpmpletely.

That is when opec will cut production, the price will skyrocket.

Your $120 a barrel mark is probably close to the mark.

At the same time the dollar will begin to fall as inflation, that should have already kicked in from the mass printing of money for quantitative easying, and huge inflation will hit.

The great recession will look like a hichup.....

Too bad for the little guy.

SA recently said we will not see $100 a barrel ever again. I dont know how much credence to put into that, but I have never heard them say that before. The rich have already invested their money in clean energy.

a reply to: FarleyWayne

Economic forecasting is incredible difficult, and even more so when there`s massive manipulation going on.

At the moment there`s also economic warfare going on and really a lot of imbalances in the whole system.

Even without the manipulations, imbalances and the economic attacks (no idea how long that is going to take) you have to be really, really skilful...so you won`t hear any prediction coming from me.

originally posted by: thesmokingman
SA recently said we will not see $100 a barrel ever again. I dont know how much credence to put into that, but I have never heard them say that before. The rich have already invested their money in clean energy.

In MY-OPINIONs:

1. Clean-Energy dried up with ... The Rivers.

2. Clean-Energy doesn't even come close to the amount of power (10 times) stored in petroleum.
( unless you have a 90% reduction in demand? )
.

Really guys? I believe this whole show is totaly manipulated. The decline in the euro can't account for all of the increase this fast. The feds probably have there hand in this as well. How often do you see gold go up at this rate when the dollar is high?

Its been a long time ATS

THe oil situation brought me back.

Up front I am no expert, but just did some internet searching.
This is my take

If I understand the below chart correctly. The dollar is not that strong relatively speaking in Historical context. It is just strengthening. The thing is economic growth in china is slowly slowing down, so less and less suport from asia to mask economic weaknes in the rest of the developed nations, and a Greece exit of the euro zone although unlikely is stil on the table after everything that has happened. Not to mention midle eastern instability, cooling relations with euraisa bloc, oil nations being less attractive investment due to oil price volatility ect. The only reasonable thing to do is to invest in the largest economy in the world which holds the reserve currency and shows some superficial signs of economic strengthening compared to the rest of the world. It feels more like a natural correction reafirming American Hegemony at least of the top 1 %.

U.S. Dollar Index Historical Chart

Seeing as the euro slides rapidly and the dollar rising rapidly it makes for a nice show. It doesnt realy matter though how much they fortify the United States. Failing world economics wil eventually drag down annual growth compared to the forecast and the whole house of cards wil fal down all over again. Their underlying income inequality gap and lack of inflation adjusted income growth combined with their overwhelming debt wil at some point flush it all down the drain. They can board up the house, but that is not going to stop the flood gates.

Deflationary pressures due to oil are only temporary. So yes inflation in america could be on its way, and if Greece worries subside and the oil starts seriously rising you could well see the Dollar slide back, but if Greece does exit, you can be sure that the dollar wil remain strong even in the face of strong inflation at least for a while.

Personaly I believe Europe would economically be better of without greece in the long run, but in the short term the economic and political fallout wil be severe.

American oil price wil rise fast as production reductions slowly snowbal. I get the feeling the saudis are willing to sacrifice quite a big chunk of currency reserves in exchange for larger oil market share. Looking at long term survivability. So who knows how long they wil wait with limiting production to spike prices. 6 months to a year after US prices have spiked? Even now WTI stands higher than Brent.

Why would the rebound of sliver and gold upwards be a sign that commodities wil be rising as well. As I understand it people are seeking the safety of precious metals to minimise risk and limit their exposure to oil and stock volatility. There are reasons why oil wil rebound, but dont really see how rising precious metal demand is part of that.

Oill really seems to be a vicious cycle. Have high oil prices and the majority of the world suffers due to inflation and lower relative income, but increased consumerism makes the energy sector and the rich very happy. And when oil prices are low. Consumers are happy due to the extra income and deflationary pressures that may lead to buffering and saving money, but the macro economic slows down and companies dont grow as much, and unemployment rises ect,

Oil economics is responsible for its own predicament Mainly due to peak oil. Yes there is endles oil, but no truly cheap ways to extract and refine it as it was in the past. The high price opened up this new opportunity to extract oil in greater quantities, but at higher price, lower returns and a lot of borrowed money. In the end no matter how much volatility oil prices wil go up higher and higher in the end. Unles we make a dramatic switch of some kind, yeah right. In the mean time price volatility wil destroy a lot of capital and keep unbalancing the markets in a way that makes endles growth even less feaseable than it already was.

The early rockeffeler oil pioneer already realised how economic competition doesnt really bring balance or structure or benefit to the world, thats why he made a monopoly with standard oil, way back when and why most big buisnes today are monopolies. They need the cooperation or things get really unstable as seen now by Saudie Arabia not playing along anymore due to economic competition instead of acros the board cooperation.

People here may frrown upan a World Order, but a new economic system that is globally integrated and does not base itself on debt creation or economic competition is inevitable, no matter how long it wil take. It is the only way to steer global policy if everyone jumps on the band wagon in an orderly and harmonious fashion. We al benefit if the greater good takes precedent over greed.

Please correct augment or refute or agree with whatever I have said. I am no expert and I always like to be challenged and grow.

Kind Regards.

originally posted by: GamleGamle

THe oil situation brought me back.

This is my take ...

American oil price wil rise fast as production reductions slowly snowbal. I get the feeling the saudis are willing to sacrifice quite a big chunk of currency reserves in exchange for larger oil market share.

I can see that you've been dipping into the asprin-bottle ... more than a time or two!

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It's been said that Crude-Prices are artificial due to an attempt to bring Russia into alignment for whatever reason someone wishes to make up.

$48.00 is artificial alright because offshore production costs are $95.00 or more. ( forget the shale-oil; the bigger honey-pot for the federal-government is offshore-production ).

For the last 4-(or more)-years, the U.S. has been producing most everything it consumes. Oil-Freighers weren't needed and had just about come to be a thing of the past ... ( and/or oil-freighers being turned into sand-haulers or plainly just sitting-n-rusting-n-harbour ).

Now, all of a sudden we're suppose to believe that OPEC can supply the U.S. with all the oil the U.S. isn't producing anymore ???

I say 'hogwash' ... because Oil-Tankers can't be built fast enough to Re-Supply the Shortfall of the Missing (or lack of) U.S. Crude-Oil-Production.

The only way this can be pulled off for this amout of time is:

IF the Strategic-Petroleum-Reserve is being used to offset the settling-in of production-shortages due to ... Too Low of a Crude-Oil Price to Produce.

-
OPINION-of-THEREFORE:

It's ONLY a Matter-of-Time before ... The S.P.R. Hole Runs Dry.
.

originally posted by: GamleGamle
Its been a long time ATS

THe oil situation brought me back.

Up front I am no expert, but just did some internet searching.
This is my take

If I understand the below chart correctly. The dollar is not that strong relatively speaking in Historical context. It is just strengthening. The thing is economic growth in china is slowly slowing down, so less and less suport from asia to mask economic weaknes in the rest of the developed nations, and a Greece exit of the euro zone although unlikely is stil on the table after everything that has happened. Not to mention midle eastern instability, cooling relations with euraisa bloc, oil nations being less attractive investment due to oil price volatility ect. The only reasonable thing to do is to invest in the largest economy in the world which holds the reserve currency and shows some superficial signs of economic strengthening compared to the rest of the world. It feels more like a natural correction reafirming American Hegemony at least of the top 1 %.

U.S. Dollar Index Historical Chart

Seeing as the euro slides rapidly and the dollar rising rapidly it makes for a nice show. It doesnt realy matter though how much they fortify the United States. Failing world economics wil eventually drag down annual growth compared to the forecast and the whole house of cards wil fal down all over again. Their underlying income inequality gap and lack of inflation adjusted income growth combined with their overwhelming debt wil at some point flush it all down the drain. They can board up the house, but that is not going to stop the flood gates.

Deflationary pressures due to oil are only temporary. So yes inflation in america could be on its way, and if Greece worries subside and the oil starts seriously rising you could well see the Dollar slide back, but if Greece does exit, you can be sure that the dollar wil remain strong even in the face of strong inflation at least for a while.

Personaly I believe Europe would economically be better of without greece in the long run, but in the short term the economic and political fallout wil be severe.

American oil price wil rise fast as production reductions slowly snowbal. I get the feeling the saudis are willing to sacrifice quite a big chunk of currency reserves in exchange for larger oil market share. Looking at long term survivability. So who knows how long they wil wait with limiting production to spike prices. 6 months to a year after US prices have spiked? Even now WTI stands higher than Brent.

Why would the rebound of sliver and gold upwards be a sign that commodities wil be rising as well. As I understand it people are seeking the safety of precious metals to minimise risk and limit their exposure to oil and stock volatility. There are reasons why oil wil rebound, but dont really see how rising precious metal demand is part of that.

Oill really seems to be a vicious cycle. Have high oil prices and the majority of the world suffers due to inflation and lower relative income, but increased consumerism makes the energy sector and the rich very happy. And when oil prices are low. Consumers are happy due to the extra income and deflationary pressures that may lead to buffering and saving money, but the macro economic slows down and companies dont grow as much, and unemployment rises ect,

Oil economics is responsible for its own predicament Mainly due to peak oil. Yes there is endles oil, but no truly cheap ways to extract and refine it as it was in the past. The high price opened up this new opportunity to extract oil in greater quantities, but at higher price, lower returns and a lot of borrowed money. In the end no matter how much volatility oil prices wil go up higher and higher in the end. Unles we make a dramatic switch of some kind, yeah right. In the mean time price volatility wil destroy a lot of capital and keep unbalancing the markets in a way that makes endles growth even less feaseable than it already was.

The early rockeffeler oil pioneer already realised how economic competition doesnt really bring balance or structure or benefit to the world, thats why he made a monopoly with standard oil, way back when and why most big buisnes today are monopolies. They need the cooperation or things get really unstable as seen now by Saudie Arabia not playing along anymore due to economic competition instead of acros the board cooperation.

People here may frrown upan a World Order, but a new economic system that is globally integrated and does not base itself on debt creation or economic competition is inevitable, no matter how long it wil take. It is the only way to steer global policy if everyone jumps on the band wagon in an orderly and harmonious fashion. We al benefit if the greater good takes precedent over greed.

Please correct augment or refute or agree with whatever I have said. I am no expert and I always like to be challenged and grow.

Kind Regards.

Nice work for not being a professional. You factored in a lot of information. That's why I really come to ATS. That and to blow off some steam. Thanks.

a reply to: LOSTinAMERICA

Thank You for the apreciation. I needed that after the personal attack of the previous poster.

The saudis may not gain american market share, but they wil not lose any market share either like the last time they played along with OPEC in the 80s. At least not so severly. That saudi would gain market share was a bit of a presumption. They say they could theoretically hold out for 8 years living of their reserves and cutting spending from their budget. Doesnt mean it is going to happen, but an interesting thought nonetheless. OPEC and other big oil producers and exporters may not like cutting back on their oil production unanimously to stabilise price and so protect saudi market share, but the alternative is being sqeeuzed as they are now. Russsia can not afford to appear weak, but here they are because they were unwilling to play along.

Is this oil volatility a one time fluke brought on by an unlucky convergence of circumstance or iis it something hardwired in the nature of oil and its economics itself. I think the latter and people like to think the former. If lower oil prices wil be here to stay for a while it wil impact oil production world wide and prices wil inevitably rise as demand catches up. Straining global economic growth. If the oil price rebounds oil production wil be maintained longer and macro economic growth wil continue more steady, but a new ceiling wil be hit eventually as demand catches up with supply and another shock wil occur due to even higher oil prices that wil burst the bubble of ecnonoic growth once again. Yes we can effectively postpone the end of oil for quite a while, but the growing world economy is going to have that much harder of a time to kick the habit once it becomes clear that one of the biggest growth curbers is oil as much as it is a growth increaser.

Interesting times.

Once again. I am no expert, I just proces the information given to me to the best of my capabilities. This could mean I am ful of it, but instead of berating me or any other nastynes. Please refute me step by step in a courteous, but logical matter, and I shal oblige.

Kind Regards

Reading back this thread. I may not have been well enough aware of
A the technological advancement in oil procurement
B how much oil stock is actually available
C how much demand would be lacking.

Wonder if we will diversify enough energy wise to avoid extremely high oil prices in the future.

The American dollar is strong but the English pound is 1.5x in value last time I checked. The Swiss franc is around the same value as the American dollar.

I don't really watch silver values but the simple explanation for the gas drop is supply and demand. Many countries are producing surplus oil at record rates. Economical recession could also contribute with consumers not able to afford to fill their tanks like they did before.

Interesting to say the least. Although oil prices went down the oil companies continue to profit, if not to a degree as high as before, it's a huge chunk of money nonetheless.

originally posted by: SurfinUSA

The American dollar is strong but the English pound is 1.5x in value last time I checked.

That is where it historically has been when the dollar is strong.