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originally posted by: CaticusMaximus
originally posted by: lostbook
What says ATS?
I think Ive been on ATS long enough to sum up the things 99% of it will say, in one form or another, in generally descending order of both... ahem... "ignorance", would be the nice way to put it... and commonality:
Anyway...
This is why every estimate is being revised upwards constantly. Scientists, though knowledgeable and some, even intelligent, as they may be, are not likely to be any more well equipped to think in exponential terms than an ordinary person would be. Their projections are linear projections, and the system being modeled is in full on exponential
The situation is not reversible at this point though. So many positive feedbacks have been triggered, that its pretty much over. Even with a global concerted effort, with a 100% immediate reduction to all emissions, its still too late because some of those emissions (sulfates) are actually keeping the planet cooler than it should be, and dont last long in the atmosphere (days). Stop emissions, the planet warms past 2C immediately. Keep the emissions going, and the planet is on course for catastrophic warming (upwards of 10C) in just a few decades.
All I can say now to people really, is to make peace with death while you still have time. If you are relatively healthy and under... 75, you probably have a good chance of seeing the full blown effects of whats to come. At least the earnest beginnings of them. And when that happens, you will most likely die before your natural expiration date due to either starvation, or violence over resources at some level, local or national.
Heat will, and has, come out of the ocean in large quantities very quickly. Typically those years are called "el nino" years. Its when a lot of heat stored in the ocean is dumped back out into the atmosphere.
originally posted by: pheonix358
a reply to: Greven
No.
CO2 increases lag behind temperature increases.
That is, the increased temperatures cause CO2 to increase.
P
You're wrong. Or at least, you're imprecise. Temperature lags behind CO2 increase in the Northern Hemisphere.
What happened to the southern hemisphere? CO2 doesn't like spicy food?
originally posted by: Greven
a reply to: pheonix358
The Vostok ice cores - which is what that chart you posted claims to use - are from Antarctica, so what are you talking about?
And if you haven't heard that CO2 leads temperature in the Northern Hemisphere before, you need to look harder.
originally posted by: Bilk22
Gee who-da-thought? SHOCK STUDY: Carbon dioxide emissions help rainforests GROW FASTER...
So many people are still in denial of the current phenomenon of acute climate and weather change.
Are you still in denial?
originally posted by: lostbook
a reply to: CaticusMaximus
Heat will, and has, come out of the ocean in large quantities very quickly. Typically those years are called "el nino" years. Its when a lot of heat stored in the ocean is dumped back out into the atmosphere.
So, when is the next El Nino happening? Does it happen at regular intervals or is it an irregular event?
I even have trouble reading through online forums such as this one because people truly can never realize that "the future" doesn't exist, & that nonexistent future is literally a few mere years away.
It's a pretty basic science experiment to add CO2 to an atmosphere, say, in a bottle.
originally posted by: rickymouse
It's one degree below zero F here today. How long before this takes effect?
I think Ive been on ATS long enough to sum up the things 99% of it will say, in one form or another, in generally descending order of both... ahem... "ignorance", would be the nice way to put it... and commonality:
1: "Herp derp, it was (something really low) temperature here today, hurr durrrrrr, sure be nice ifn that heat came over my way!"
2: "They dont know what they are talking about. Despite my non-existent credentials against their life-times of knowledge, something tells me they are wrong and I am right!"
3: "Its a hoax! Carbon tax! Koch Brothers!"
4: "Its natural, theres nothing to worry about!"
5: "Its happened before, nothing to worry about!"
6: "Its happening, but by god WE had absolutely nothing to do with it whatsoever! AGW is a hoax! Tax! KOCH!!!"
7: "The world is COOLING, We are actually going into an ice age!" (Ok thats actually the dumbest one, but its not very common)
The remaining 1% of ATS will try to inject some type of intelligence to the reply section, but will be heckled and attacked by a crowd from the above who dont realize just how foolish they actually look to people who understand the predicament we are in even on a rudimentary level.
Anyway...
The situation is dire. No... in fact it is now irreversible, which I dont think "dire" describes very well. "Dire" implies there might be some chance to turn things around, but the momentum of the system is nigh incomprehensible. Humans are looking at something that they are not physiologically very capable of comprehending: exponential functions. Humans are mentally designed to think in linear terms. When a system becomes non-linear, as in exponential, the human mind does not cope well with it on it a fundamental level.
This is why every estimate is being revised upwards constantly. Scientists, though knowledgeable and some, even intelligent, as they may be, are not likely to be any more well equipped to think in exponential terms than an ordinary person would be. Their projections are linear projections, and the system being modeled is in full on exponential mode.
Heat will, and has, come out of the ocean in large quantities very quickly. Typically those years are called "el nino" years. Its when a lot of heat stored in the ocean is dumped back out into the atmosphere. Its why the atmosphere appeared to somewhat plateau in 98... that was an el nino year with a large spike in temperature; but the Earth did not stop warming... the heat simply went into the oceans.
The situation is not reversible at this point though. So many positive feedbacks have been triggered, that its pretty much over. Even with a global concerted effort, with a 100% immediate reduction to all emissions, its still too late because some of those emissions (sulfates) are actually keeping the planet cooler than it should be, and dont last long in the atmosphere (days). Stop emissions, the planet warms past 2C immediately. Keep the emissions going, and the planet is on course for catastrophic warming (upwards of 10C) in just a few decades.
I wont explain why thats bad to anyone who doesnt know. Look it up yourself. Its extremely bad for the ecology of the planet.
All I can say now to people really, is to make peace with death while you still have time. If you are relatively healthy and under... 75, you probably have a good chance of seeing the full blown effects of whats to come. At least the earnest beginnings of them. And when that happens, you will most likely die before your natural expiration date due to either starvation, or violence over resources at some level, local or national.
originally posted by: pheonix358
a reply to: Greven
Sorry, my mistake, I put the wrong graph up.
Here you go.
The Northern Hemisphere is not so special, it is part of the same world wide eco system.
P
Our CO2 record from the Siple Dome core is synchronized with NGRIP (North Greenland Ice Core Project) ice ages on the Greenland Ice Core Chronology 2005 (GICC05) timescale using abrupt CH4 changes that are near synchronous with abrupt Greenlandic climate change. We used updated CH4 records to make better synchronization. The CH4 data resolution is 82 and 232 years for 23.5–42.3 and 42.3–46.9 ka, respectively.
originally posted by: CranialSponge
There's just one wee little problem with your "basic science experiment":
The earth isn't in a closed bottle.
Hence the radiative forcing calculation will not compute the same way as it does in a closed, controlled "bottle" experiment... Hence the reason why the planet doesn't seem to be following this over-simplified equation (3.7 W/m^2) touted by climatologists.