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It was later discovered that Hottel's story was a retelling of a retelling of a 6 January 1950 article published in the The Wyandotte Echo, a Kansas City, Kansas, legal newspaper. The Wyandotte Echo article itself was a retelling of the account of a local car-salesman and radio station advertising manager.
Ultimately the details within the FBI memo can be traced directly back to the hoax.
Nobody is 100% sure it was mogul and which flight, but the 1994 report claims that flight 4 was never recovered. If you're referring to the debate about the flight path of flight 4, the person who most vocally says now that flight 4 couldn't have reached that area himself created a flight path at one time showing it was possible. So again it's not certain but there's nothing to rule it out in spite of debates about the flight path. Since it wasn't recovered nobody can say what the flight path was, unless that's what Brazel found.
originally posted by: Herolotus
To that end I thought I would state that I am pretty sure I have read documentation that absolutely ruled out a MOGUL balloon simply on the basis that none were lost in that area at that time. There are military records that tracked those devices, afterall.
The material and a "black box," described by Cavitt, was, in Moore's scientific opinion, most probably from Flight 4, a "service flight" that included a cylindrical metal sonobuoy and portions of a weather instrument housed in a box, which was unlike typical weather radiosondes which were made of cardboard. Additionally, a copy of a professional journal maintained at the time by A.P. Crary, provided to the Air Force by his widow, showed that Flight 4 was launched on June 4, 1947, but was not recovered by the NYU group. It is very probable that this TOP SECRET project balloon train (Flight 4), made up of unclassified components; came to rest some miles northwest of Roswell, NM, became shredded in the surface winds and was ultimately found by the rancher, Brazel, ten days later.
originally posted by: Bybyots
If you want to understand the influences at work on the American imagination in the years leading up to Maury Island, Kenneth Arnold's sighting and then Roswell, you must also consider the influence of Ray Palmer and the magazine that he became the editor for in 1938 Amazing Stories.
By the time the summer of 1947 rolled around, America was already obsessed with The Shaver Mystery stories, which began to be published by Ray Palmer in Amazing Stories magazine beginning in 1945 when he printed his heavily novelized version of Richard Shaver's tale, calling it I Remember Lemuria.
At one point the demand for Shaver's stories was so great that publisher Ziff-Davis had to divert paper supplies during a wartime shortage to have enough to satisfy the demand for the Shaver Mystery stories in Amazing Stories magazine.
Ray Palmer is the person that paid Kenneth Arnold $200 to go and investigate Fred Crisman after Crisman reported the Maury Island Incident, which Crisman claimed happened prior to Arnold's sighting, to Ray Palmer. How'd Crisman know Palmer? He had been contributing bull# stories to the ever deepening Shaver Mysteries.
Later, Palmer and Arnold (No, not Arnold Palmer) wrote a book together called The Coming of The Saucers.
Anyhow, I gotta keep this short but hey: Ray Palmer and all that; America was highly primed for weirdness in 1947.
originally posted by: CardDown
I's a fact that flying saucer did not yet automatically mean "alien spacecraft" in 1947.
Late Aug. 1947; Alamogordo [Holloman] Army Air Field, New Mexico; AMC Watson Labs Project MOGUL communications officer Lt. H. G. Markley. While watching 2 balloons with radar reflector to the SE in 10x binoculars Markley saw traveling at "unprecedented rate of speed" a round white object in horizontal light S to N several thousand feet over the tops of Sacramento Mtns.