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Oil prices: the Chinese factor

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posted on Dec, 23 2014 @ 08:37 PM
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a reply to: monkeyluv

Some of the replies to that are interesting as well.

The oil types refer to it as a 'hurt' with dire predictions for some oil companies perhaps leading to a chain reaction economic collapse.

I don't have any oil investments...no money...
.

I highly doubt that scenario as we've just seen in Russia a bail-out of a bank that was facing bankruptcy. Like-wise, I suspect a GM-like bail-out if any large companies face ruin. That would avoid any chain reaction that could lead to a wider economic collapse.

Allowing this isn't artificial-beyond OPEC maintaining their production levels- then like any other market-place, doo-doo occurs...




posted on Dec, 23 2014 @ 09:55 PM
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I've heard something about OPEC flooding the market as a result of increased production here in the US, in order to drive the price down so far where it would be unsurvivable for US-producing companies to compete- all in an effort to drive out the US producers.

Can anyone shed any light on that assertion? I haven't really seen OPEC mentioned in this thread except once or twice.



posted on Dec, 24 2014 @ 12:28 AM
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a reply to: justwanttofly

Damn, I'm no expert.

I've heard the same thing. Then again, I've heard it's a move against Russia.

Really stepping out, they have the assets to ride it out. What if it's more than just U.S. producers? The bottom companies world-wide could go down. Not just U.S..

Now are the assets of the newly 'belly-up' available at pennies on the dollar? Like-wise the Big oil companies? They're surely hurt by this as well. Maybe they also scoop up the 'assets' of the newly dead...LOL.

Way, way over my head.



posted on Dec, 24 2014 @ 12:33 AM
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Theres also the fact it helps subsidize Japan a great deal more with cheap oil seeing as how their economy is pretty much destroyed, well on paper anyway, who knows what the numbers mean anymore.

And I wouldnt worry about the Chinese economy, people will still just be grasping the true extent of their hyper expansion in decades to come.
edit on 24-12-2014 by Dabrazzo because: (no reason given)



posted on Dec, 24 2014 @ 12:56 AM
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a reply to: justwanttofly

Shale production is about to peak and thus will be declining after that, yet even with the temporary crush it will get fracked down the road.

So I don`t buy the whole it was about crushing the US shale production, peak oil already occurred but has been being offset by the US shale production for a short period.

They had only a small window into trying to hurt Russia in the same manner as in the late 80s, and that was with the combination of the small increase Saudi Arabia was able to do and declining demand. The attack on the Rouble seem to have failed and Europe is also wary about going for more sanctions because it hurts too much (spun by Western media as they are afraid Russia collapses).

Russia knows the low oil prices will not last forever and they just need to sit out the ride. Western media its calls for doom on Russia are part of the policy to stir things up in Russia and hope for a coloured revolution in Russia.

Listen to this to hear why Russia just needs to sit out the ride...



CNBC: "Peak Oil didn't happen" ..

Pickens: "that's all bull#... I am the expert not you" CNBC: "well you're not much of an expert if you thought Peak Oil happened" Enjoy some real-life pushback on the narrative...


Source

So yes he calls it to be because of weaker demand, but SA upped the export still a bit with all they got, hence US/SA knew this was the only time they still had left to use it against Russia in combination with the ongoing sanctions and Rouble speculations.

It seems the punches the West is still able to deliver are getting less powerful as time goes by.

Pepe Escobar On Blowback After Blowback For The "Empire Of Chaos"

Source



posted on Dec, 24 2014 @ 01:01 AM
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a reply to: BornAgainAlien

Are you sure? I've seen reports that Russia has increased it's prime rate to 17%. They also had to bail out a Bank that was about to go down.

That doesn't bode well for Russia 'riding it out'.

I still think your logic is sound. The only point I view a bit different is I see both Russia and China with nowhere near the strength or staying power you do.

I could be wrong, though..



posted on Dec, 24 2014 @ 01:09 AM
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a reply to: BornAgainAlien

It amazes me people think the largest country on the planet cant weather a run on its illusionary resources.

Looks like their doing ok to me lol.

Moscow International Business Center




posted on Dec, 24 2014 @ 01:35 AM
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a reply to: nwtrucker

Russian prime rate in the past has been upped to 150% and I know 600% has also been used elsewhere to curb currency speculation. They already talk about lowering it as soon as possible. The Rouble now has stabilized, but that doesn`t mean it can`t be attacked again.

The Rouble was under attack of speculators and had not much to do with an imploding Russian economy. So yes, because the Russian GDP is 54% oil and petroleum based it will show up in GDP figures as contractions of the economy, but it does not mean the economy will implode.

The talking heads in Western media try to work up ordinary Russians so large protests are going to occur and a regime change will happen. There are Western backed elements in Russia who were behind the first attempts to do that in 2011/2012 who are now being geared up to do the same, but Russia is on to them.

Facebook shuts down page after Putin applies the pressure

Source



posted on Dec, 24 2014 @ 03:36 AM
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originally posted by: nwtrucker
a reply to: monkeyluv

Some of the replies to that are interesting as well.

The oil types refer to it as a 'hurt' with dire predictions for some oil companies perhaps leading to a chain reaction economic collapse.

I don't have any oil investments...no money...
.

I highly doubt that scenario as we've just seen in Russia a bail-out of a bank that was facing bankruptcy. Like-wise, I suspect a GM-like bail-out if any large companies face ruin. That would avoid any chain reaction that could lead to a wider economic collapse.

Allowing this isn't artificial-beyond OPEC maintaining their production levels- then like any other market-place, doo-doo occurs...




The issue may involve an eventual drop in production as low prices cannot sustain capital expenditures, and that in turn driven by peak oil. Given that, not only investors will be affected but the global economy as a whole.

Bail outs will be difficult because the global economy has barely recovered from the previous financial crash.



posted on Jan, 7 2015 @ 03:42 PM
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a reply to: BornAgainAlien

Hmm, the price is down to $48 per barrel...and that's a 'devalued' dollar.

"on to" or not. Russia is in deep Kimchee...



posted on Jan, 7 2015 @ 03:50 PM
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a reply to: nwtrucker

Maybe read my last post here...

Source

...as I have said, it`s an attack on Russia...question only will be, will it be successful...I have my doubts and think the Russians knew this was coming...till the Russians are going to do things like cutting gas to Europe they are not in a desperate situation.



posted on Jan, 8 2015 @ 02:23 AM
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a reply to: BornAgainAlien

An attack on Russia? You still buy into that?

Are you including the OPEC producers into that attack? How about a surplus of oil with a less than vibrant world economy? How about a nation that has insufficient diversity and over-relies on it's oil revenues?

One man's bread is another man's poison. It's just Russia's turn.



posted on Jan, 8 2015 @ 04:31 AM
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I don't think China is in trouble else it would not have near double digit groth unless they are cooking the books just as much as the west does.

Some say that the fiat $US is backed by oil and guns with the US bombing anyone that hurts it profit so why is the $US on its way up or should we not trust a word they say because its easy to just change digits on a computer and we do know that the US buys it own bonds.

Strange that oil crashes just after Russia signs a $400bn deal with China don't you thinks so maybe its part of a bigger plan.



posted on Jan, 8 2015 @ 05:41 AM
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Lower oil prices also means lower tax receipts for those countries that tax gas to the hilt, like the UK, the difference will have to be made up, possible by personal income tax, that poor rube who always gets the poopy end of the stick.



posted on Jan, 9 2015 @ 03:13 AM
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a reply to: pikestaff

Huh? The tax rate hasn't decreased. If anything, it affords the opportunity to increase gas taxes.

California just introduced a "Global warming Fee"- nothing more than a tax increase- on it's gas and lower gas prices will mean more driving opportunities for the average person. More usage means an increase of Gov't revenues, not less....



posted on Jan, 9 2015 @ 03:22 AM
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a reply to: VirusGuard

I guess it's possible, I see the Russian aspect as a side benefit rather than the 'reason'.

Agree China is benefitting hugely, perhaps more than anyone else is. A 'wedge' between the Russian-Chinese agreement more than anything else.

Russia's output is at max from what I understand. Any deal between Russia and China is still modified by intern'l prices with the EU being the one that would suffer from a redirect of oil to China by the Russians.

Massive Norwegian development and eventual lifting of U.S. export restrictions should cover that shortfall. (Also continued EU/UN pressure on Israel keeps the Saudi pipeline wide open...
)



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