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exit polls in Ohio showed Kerry 52.1% Actual vote says 48.7% Poll conducted by Warren Mitofsky, actual margin of error 3.4%
According to standard statistical analysis, assuming a random exit poll sample (my emphasis) and an honest vote count, there is a probability of roughly 1 in a thousand that this certifed election result would occur.
The probability that a pollster with the experience, reputation, and ability of Warren Mitofsky would not be able to draw a random sample is vanishingly small.
On information and belief, contestors allege that traditional means of vote fraud were used. (ballot stuffing, and ballot destruction)
WARREN MITOFSKY: Well, in an exit poll, everybody doesn't agree to be interviewed. It's voluntary, and the people refuse usually at about the same rate, regardless of who they support. When you have a very energized electorate, which contributed to the big turnout, sometimes the supporters of one candidate refuse at a greater rate than the supporters of the other candidate.
What is important is that Mitofsky puts the conspiracy theories to rest by declaring- categorically- that after extensive analysis, he believes his numbers were off and sees NO EVIDENCE of systematic voter fraud. www.command-post.org...
Absent further data from NEP, you can choose to believe that an existing problem with exit polls got worse this year in the face of declining response rates and rising distrust of big media, that a slightly higher number of Bush voters than Kerry voters declined to be interviewed. Or, you can believe that a massive secret conspiracy somehow shifted roughly 2% of the vote from Kerry to Bush in every battleground state, a conspiracy that fooled everyone but the exit pollsters - and then only for a few hours - after which they deliberately suppressed evidence of the fraud and damaged their own reputations by blaming the discrepancies on weaknesses in their data.
Originally posted by jsobecky
You are very interested in the electoral process in the US, moreso than many Americans are, even though you are not a US citizen.
Originally posted by MaskedAvatar
Thanks, but you don't know me, and I share little about me here. How you would assume anything about my citizenship or where I choose to live and retain properties is beyond me and it is irrelevant.
I will find ATS more satisfying when people can drop labels and assumptions about members and can deal in the facts.