This is going to be a snapshot of things that I've seen over the past few weeks and months that concern me. I feel that people wish to know the
timing of a global collapse; my private opinion is that we are not likely in the middle of a global catastrophic event on the level of a comet or
However, I do think that there are serious things that are all converging that signal a challenging future within the next six months or so. My first
place to visit is the economy, obviously.
The financial situation in much of Europe remains bad, with youth unemployment in countries like Spain and Greece still ridiculous.
Goldman's model finds that Europe is likely
in a triple dip recession.
Housing markets are mixed if you do a Google search, but first time buyers in
the U.S. are abandoning the market in droves.
However, the situation is much clearer in the Chinese markets,
as there's little
ambiguity that the housing bubble is probably popping all over China.
Basically, tough times are ahead.
Spain is moving the military
into the area before the secession vote by Catalonia on the 9th.
Ah, this is where a post-QE world gets a little scary. Everyone (and I mean everyone) is expecting higher interest rates in 2015. When this
happens, banks will see how offering loans increases profitability. And, class, when the banks begin, ahem, easily lending to firms and households, we
will also see an increase in the money supply and added inflationary pressure.
The end result for the U.S. economy in a post-QE world: Tough times ahead.
I mean, there's not really much to say about this other than that Spain really needs Catalonia to not secede, and it looks like it will be an
interesting weekend for everybody.
Russia is saying that it is necessary economically for the world to go off the dollar as the reserve
There's been a lot of talk in the last year about this, and with oil prices plunging and costing economies all over the world, oil
producing economies like Russia for example, I look for this kind of talk to escalate and explode into the new year.
ASA Warns California Drought Could Threaten U.S. Food Supply: “There will be some definite changes”
I know that some may not like the source that much, but they seemed to have done a fair job of citing some decent sources.
The groundwater at some of the world’s largest aquifers — in the U.S. High Plains, California’s Central Valley, China, India, and elsewhere
— is being pumped out “at far greater rates than it can be naturally replenished.
That is one part of the article that most interests me. It's not just California's aquifers being taken much faster than replenishment rate, but
China and in India as well. This lack of water in California is already effecting produce prices and farming activity in California from what the
article says. Other, just as concerning points in the article, talk about how Sao Paulo, a city with 20 million people, has 5% of its water supply
left and may run out of water completely within the next few months.
I am not one that things that the United States is likely to see that many ebola cases. My main concern is that, going into winter, it may be
extremely hard for people to tell the difference between the flu and ebola until symptoms are well out of control, which could aid in the spread. The
flip side of this is that I worry much more about the general populace freaking out about ebola and the panic forcing the deployment of the military
in some areas.
That being said, NYC is
currently monitoring over 350 people for ebola, most of which have had direct contact from being in the effected West African countries.
The threat to the United States and most other non-African countries is not that great, but the main threat will be those that go to Western Africa
and could potentially spread the disease. I am not concerned for many industrialized countries; it is the developing world that I worry for.
Nothing like what I worry for Western Africa, though. Cases
in Western Africa are vastly underreported, by a factor of about 2 times in most places
The article does point out that the needed supplies are
vastly outnumbered by the amount of supplies that is actually available.
This is by no means mean to say that the end of the world is upon us and to stock up on beans and bullets and such. It is, however, merely a few of
the threads in the global chain that I am watching and that I think you should watch closely as well. I do not believe that an economic collapse or a
world war or anything is inevitable. I do
believe that hard times are ahead for most of us and that we need to take precautions and be aware of
the mild to moderate pitfalls ahead.