Dollar smashes through resistance as mega-rally gathers pace ! Can it be true ?

A rather long article that goes totally against many of the stories about a U.S. dollar crash .... If the trend holds true call it an early Christmas Gift for Americans.

I do know being overseas the exchange rate has been getting better for USD

The US dollar has surged to a four-year high against a basket of currencies and has punched through key technical resistance, marking a crucial turning point for the global financial system.

“We think this will be a four to five-year bull-market in the dollar. The whole exchange system is seeking a new equilibrium,” he said. “We think the euro will reach $1.12 to the dollar by next year and will be even weaker than the yen in the race to the bottom.”

Mr Redeker said US pension funds and asset managers have invested huge sums in emerging markets without considering the currency risks. “They may be forced to start hedging their exposure, and that could catapult the dollar even higher in a self-fulfilling effect.”

www.telegraph.co.uk...

Not to turn this into a political thread, but I suspect it's due to the impending Doom of the Democrats. If the Repubs win the Senate, it's going to cause a boom.

a reply to: 727Sky

Both things are good and bad:

Having a "cheap" dollar means that more us-american-made goods will be bought worldwide (as they are cheap by a cheap dollar) = more work for us-american companies. Imported goods are expensive in the USA.

Having an "expensive" dollar means that you could buy formerly expensive imported goods (like a Porsche or such) for less dollars. US-american goods are more expensive all over the rest of the world = less goods are sold = less work in the USA.

And therefore having an "expensive" currency does not automatically mean that all is well..

originally posted by: ManFromEurope
a reply to: 727Sky

Both things are good and bad:

Having a "cheap" dollar means that more us-american-made goods will be bought worldwide (as they are cheap by a cheap dollar) = more work for us-american companies. Imported goods are expensive in the USA.

Having an "expensive" dollar means that you could buy formerly expensive imported goods (like a Porsche or such) for less dollars. US-american goods are more expensive all over the rest of the world = less goods are sold = less work in the USA.

And therefore having an "expensive" currency does not automatically mean that all is well..

I agree...However, if this article is taken in the context that the dollar will crash and truck loads of fiat money will be needed for a bottle of Peanut Butter (Mad Max, mayhem and all that) which we have all read about then .... I am grateful for the first good news I have read in a while..

With the drop of the price per barrel of oil and the economic warfare the USA is waging on Russia and who knows who else you have to wonder if there is not more to this than meets the eye ? I really don't know .... but there always seems to be something hidden.....

a reply to: 727Sky

I don't have all of the pieces but the central banks are coordinating a lot of this. The FED just finished QE3 and their homeboy the Bank of Japan started a new round of money printing last Friday. This pounded the Yen and ramped up the $/Yen carry trade again. Europe is a basket case and the money making trade is via US stocks. Hence the flow of currency into the US.

At some point this all breaks.

So I can take my American dollars out of mothballs and they will soon actually be worth more than the paper they're printed on? Whoo hoo. Must sign off now and tell the people I live with to stop using the darn things as napkins.

this is Next level BS

kind of like how they said the housing market is booming with no end in sight back in 2008? The market will do exactly opposite of what the economist says it will do.

Just been to XE currency converter,
1 Euro = $ 1.25136
1 British pound = $1.59986
1 Can. Dollar = 0.878009
1 Ruble (Russian) = 0.0228796
This is not what you would get buying or selling notes to your bank, they take a cut either way.

Its because they are easing off the QE so the value will shoot up. Unless I see real economic growth like in the UK Id be wary about investing just yet as they could be a pretty big correction.

This might help Wall Street but how does it help main street and job creation where wages and employment is at an all time low?

originally posted by: jacobe001
This might help Wall Street but how does it help main street and job creation where wages and employment is at an all time low?

Average people need to wait for the trickle down to happen. Put this in line behind all the other trickle people have been waiting on for 30 years.

a reply to: ManFromEurope

Translation.

Imports in the US will cost less.

US exports will cost more in foreign markets.


A strong dollar isn't necessarily good and I wish people would stop with the false perception of currencies in some bank vault arm wrestling to see who is stronger as a sign of economic strength.

i wonder if the fact that the U.S. passed saudi arabia in oil production has any thing to do with it.
if so, then the dollar might go back to past exchange rates.

U.S. oil output will surge to 13.1 million barrels a day in 2019 and plateau thereafter, according to the IEA, a Paris-based adviser to 29 nations. The country will lose its top-producer ranking at the start of the 2030s, the agency said in its World Energy Outlook in November.
U.S. Seen as Biggest Oil Producer After Overtaking Saudi Arabia

of course if the dollar comes back to the top again, that will give all the U.S. haters something else to piss and moan about.

originally posted by: roadgravel

originally posted by: jacobe001
This might help Wall Street but how does it help main street and job creation where wages and employment is at an all time low?

Average people need to wait for the trickle down to happen. Put this in line behind all the other trickle people have been waiting on for 30 years.

I know trickle down is back in favor ever since Mrs. Clinton Made the comment that it did not and will not work... If you want to see all the trickle down visit China where companies have moved to.

Ross Perot said if NAFTA was passed you would hear a big sucking sound as all the American jobs left the country. But he was a business man and not a real politician so who would have thought ?

Aircraft engines (Continental) which have been made in the USA are now made in China not to mention all the other products we once made with good paying manufacturing jobs in America..

I know people do not want to hear what Ross said especially if they did not vote for him... Revisionist history ..... Ross is why Clinton was elected....23% - 25% for Perot put Clinton into office for good or bad.. That is where "if you vote for a third party you are throwing away your vote" came from in a popular way.. Hopefully there are a few on ATS who can remember Perot and what he said along with why Clinton won the election the first time around..

So the things government can do to protect American jobs and trade practices have not been done and there seems to be no end insight.. When they said America was going to convert to a service industry the hand writing was on the wall, IMO.

the USD is getting stronger because of the western media barrage of negativity with the Euro and the China economy downturn...

along with the profusion of USDs that is soon to inundate Africa starting with the half dozen Ebola infected nations---the avalanche of USDs into Africa will cause the USD to be coveted as the only viable fiat money widely circulated

(the Swiss have the high ground on most favored currency) but is not as liquid/pervasive as the USD on a global scale~
lets not forget about the 3/4 Trillion IS has in hand for blackmarket exchange-trade in U$Ds)

the USD is the cleanest dirty plate in the stack as-it-were




SLAYER69 said:
"A strong dollar isn't necessarily good and I wish people would stop with the false perception of currencies in some bank vault arm wrestling to see who is stronger as a sign of economic strength. "


I am with you on that observation

a 'strong' dollar is not derived from economic strength or GDP growth anylonger...
It is based on a feeble & fickle 'confidence' factor which is often the result of propaganda along with markets & forex manipulations

a reply to: St Udio

What??? The dollar is tied to economic growth thats why investors are hiding there assets in the US dollar. Gross domestic product increased 4.6% 2nd quarter. And august and september numbers were at 3.5%. Unemployment has been on a study decline currently at 5.9 percent.Currently inflation is almost non existent with the strong dollar Amaricans can buy more with less. Even personal income is on the rise instead of falling like it has been. With the current economic situation in the US this is supposed to trend upwards until 2016 and level out. This is why there is talk that the feds will raise intrest rates in first quarter of 2015 to put the brakes on a bit as they say. Sorry if this doesnt fit into the doom and gloom people like to put out on the net. But when you read that you ned to ask your self whats their motivation since well they are wrong.

The big problem is, all of the markets - stock market, currency / exchange markets, precious metals etc - are all rigged anyway. Just look at all the recent and ongoing investigations into rigging of various markets. The biggest jokes of all are the ratings agencies that people still pay any attention to. Yep, those same ones who were highly rating the sub-prime mortgage backed securities packages, at the same time the bankers were quietly cashing out and covering the criminal corruption.

When it comes to money, the markets are always going to be manipulated and they can bring foreign nations to their knees based on nothing more than their word and some cooked up figures.
Lets face it, it is not in their interests to tell the truth as they'd lose money, and lots of it, due to the ensuing lack of confidence and crash. When things start looking bad, the plunge protection team engages and everything is right with the world again.

a reply to: 727Sky

Most people have been convinced letting others get more wealth makes their life better and makes them more money.

They haven't figured out those telling them that are the ones getting the wealth.

a reply to: 727Sky

I wonder if it's due to us producing more oil.

It's probably not the defining factor. But it could be one of many.