In Light Of Fukushima, Is There Any Future In Aviation?

a reply to: Zaphod58
I wouldn't go so far as to say "exactly", but the point of that study I cited was to come up with better estimates of the flight crew exposure using better models. I had a much better idea of my exposure because I had to wear a dosimeter badge at all times I was on the job, so my exposure was measured, but that of airline crews isn't measured and can fluctuate with things like solar storms as mentioned in that article.

a reply to: 727Sky
Yes the link I posted touches on the solar storm aspect of the exposure model, which is one of the variables that apparently wasn't exactly known, and flights over the polar regions could be especially susceptible to increased exposure. Here are some estimates a pilot did of some exposure levels, without considering the solar flare aspect:

www.airlinepilotforums.com...

In post 5 he comes up with 4500 microsieverts per year, which is well below the recommended safety level of 20,000 microsieverts per year for a 5 year average (100,000 microsieverts over 5 years). 100,000 microsieverts is the lowest one year dose clearly linked to increased cancer risk. Even if the solar flares doubled his exposure to 9000 microsieverts per year, that's still far below the 20,000 recommended average limit, and the 50,000 limit for a single year, and the 100,000 health risk limit.

By the way the charts at that link show radiation exposure levels at the Fukushima site for comparison to many other natural and medical routine exposures.

a reply to: Arbitrageur

There is no exactly, because of solar fluctuations, but they knew as close to exactly as they could how long crews could fly safely, and how much their annual exposure was.

More from the Washington Post article which I cited above in a prior reply:

A storm is considered a meteorological bomb when its pressure drops 24 millibars in 24 hours. The GFS weather model predicts this storm’s [Nuri's] central pressure will free fall an astounding 58 millibars (mb) in 24 hours.

Hmmm, it seems like Typhoon Nuri is going to be a giant vacuum cleaner sucking up aerosolized radioactive Pacific Ocean water and bringing it upwards of maybe 70,000 feet in altitude. I hear that some huge thunderstorm clouds go up that high, well above commercial aircraft lanes.

But no one seems to be paying much attention to this eventuality.

P.M.

a reply to: theworldisnotenough

Because not everyone is convinced that Fukushima is the cause of all everything going on in the world, or that it's going to kill us all.

a reply to: theworldisnotenough
I guess I should qualify that statement by saying I meant the atmospheric fallout from the initial explosion. I certainly would agree that there is continued potential as the fat lady has not yet begun to sing so to speak. Fuki is a chronic bleeding sore on the planet that could quickly get acutely worse at any time. What is beginning to become apparent however, is like a frog in water with the temperature slowly increasing, we aren't noticing all that is and already has been done by this sore.
I understand that fallout in seawater can evaporate into vapor and fall as rainfall somewhere else. The effects will resonate for centuries. What I was referring to was the acute radiation poisoning allegedly suffered by flight crews at higher altitudes. Acute and chronic are fairly reasonable terms to use to refer to the radiation exuding from there.
I live in the Pacific NW, we are directly in line as usually the first landfall of storm systems that come from there. Trust me, I am paying attention.

a reply to: Idahomie

I understand that fallout in seawater can evaporate into vapor and fall as rainfall somewhere else.

The vaporization temperature of cesium, for example, is 671º C. So, no it won't evaporate from seawater. Even if that seawater is boiling.
Which it isn't.

The following ABC weather report states that Typhoon Nuri may become the greatest storm ever for the North Pacific/Alaska area:

Typhoon Nuri Packing 180 MPH Winds, Triggering an Arctic Blast.

The "Artic blast" of which they speak will cover much of the continental United States because the storm is so powerful that it is expected to alter the course of the jet stream bringing it south of the Texas panhandle and then even farther south to the Gulf coast of Mississippi and Alabama.

It remains to be seen what this will do to the atmosphere.

It may be a relief to the guy in Halifax who claims in Youtube videos that Fukushima radionuclides come his way via the polar route.

P.M.

a reply to: theworldisnotenough

The same thing that happens every winter when the jetstream moves south. It'll move back north again later. It's not fixed, and it moves pretty far on its own every year.

originally posted by: Zaphod58
a reply to: theworldisnotenough

The same thing that happens every winter when the jetstream moves south. It'll move back north again later. It's not fixed, and it moves pretty far on its own every year.

The same thing? Are you saying that it always happens in conjunction with a record-breaking Pacific storm?

Is this supposedly usual shift in the jetstream why we are pretty much close to having zero birds in these parts? (See my very recent post in the other thread.)

P.M.

a reply to: theworldisnotenough

The jetstream moves all the time. It dips down for awhile, and then moves back up, then moves back down again. It's called "weather".

As for the birds, they migrate, which means fewer birds. I've been in areas that have birds in the hundreds of thousands, and have flocks that cover fields. Birds are alive and well and just fine.

originally posted by: Zaphod58
a reply to: theworldisnotenough

The jetstream moves all the time. It dips down for awhile, and then moves back up, then moves back down again. It's called "weather".

As for the birds, they migrate, which means fewer birds. I've been in areas that have birds in the hundreds of thousands, and have flocks that cover fields. Birds are alive and well and just fine.

Listen up!

I am not far up north in Canada from where birds fly south for the winter.

There should be plenty of birds around here, especially seagulls, and I haven't seen a single one of these this morning.

P.M.

a reply to: theworldisnotenough

So birds only migrate from Northern Canada? I'm sure many of them would be surprised to learn that.

Listen up!

I drive all over this country, and I've seen flocks of birds that have numbered in the thousands flying around. I've seen flocks that were sitting in fields that covered almost every bit of that field. Bird numbers have not changed. I watched four or five flocks the other night that were huge.

a reply to: Phage

Interesting. I did not know that

If you go to the "Alerts Sites" webpage of the Nuclear Emergency Tracking Center at netc.com..., you will see a "RADCON-4 Concern/Watch" list that is on the long side with some pretty high readings, this, not to mention Grand Junction, CO being cited as a RADCON-5 location with a radiation reading of 609.

Now, I've seen these two alert lists expand and contract from time to time, but it wasn't until now that I am making a possible connection to Pacific storms like Nuri as being responsible for elevated United States radiation readings.

You know, it was just a few days ago that Nuri was a raging typhoon, and its extratropical remnants are forecast to still be going at it over the Bering Sea through tomorrow.

These last few days were enough time for radionuclides having been kicked up by Nuri into the atmosphere to travel to the U.S. and then to fall down to ground level.

It remains to be seen how this may be affecting aviation over the United States, Canada, or the Pacific Ocean.

Let's keep an eye on the netc.com alerts webpage over the next few days, and if the alert site lists grow, then it may be safe to assume that Nuri has been responsible.

P.M.

a reply to: theworldisnotenough

Right, because the ONLY explanation could be Nuri, and nothing else.

This came from spaceweather today


spaceweather.com...

RADS ON A PLANE: On Nov. 11th, Dr. Tony Phillips of spaceweather.com flew across the USA to attend a science communications meeting in Washington DC. As an experiment, he decided to take a radiation sensor onboard the plane with him. This is the same sensor that Earth to Sky Calculus routinely flies to the stratosphere onboard Space Weather Buoys. The results were eye-opening. During the apex of his flight to DC, cruising 39,000 feet above the desert between Reno and Phoenix, he recorded a dose rate almost 30 times higher than on the ground below:



Another way of saying it: In a single hour flying between Reno and Phoenix, the passengers were exposed to a whole day's worth of ground-level radiation, similar to what a person absorbs when they get an X-ray at the dentist's office. That's not a big deal for an occasional flyer, but as NASA points out, 100,000-mile frequent fliers can accumulate doses equal to 20 chest X-rays or about 150 dental X-rays. Lead aprons, anyone?

The sensor Phillips carried onboard detects X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners. Indeed, when the sensor passed through TSA security at the airport, the sensor began to buzz loudly, signaling a heavy dose inside the luggage scanner. TSA agents congregated around the device to investigate, and they were very interested when Phillips explained its function. Several of them were curious about how much radiation they themselves were absorbing in the vicinity of the security scanners. A quick scan of the area revealed no obvious danger.

After boarding the plane, Phillips monitored radiation levels closely. Dose rates tripled within 10 minutes of take-off and remained high for the duration of the flight. The higher the plane flew, the more intense the radiation became, and you could track changes in altitude by watching the RAD numbers on the LED display go up and down.

This simple experiment shows that space weather can touch us even when the sun is relatiively quiet. There was no intense solar or geomagnetic storms in progress during the flight, just a regular drizzle of cosmic rays reaching all the way down to aviation altitudes. Imagine what an actual solar storm could do....