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originally posted by: Totemic
Part of the Drake Equation is the average detectable lifetime of a civilization. Note Detectable. This factor is partially limited by our detection technologies, but also may reflect the lifetime of the civilization. Until very recently, our detection efforts have been focused on radio waves pretty much exclusively. We ourselves became detectable this way with the advent of radio, and more so with high powered TV transmissions.
However, looking at the trend in our communication technologies, it's easy to see that we are moving away from those more detectable transmissions and towards, cable, fiber optics and low powered, distributive transmissions. It's not hard to imagine that in a hundred years, we may be giving off no emissions that would have been detectable by a civilization with technology similar to our late 20th century tech.
Of course, there is also the possibility that the detectable window could be cut short by the fall or destruction of a civilization. We have no data that allows us to even guess as to the actual life span of a technological civilization. We can look at our own civilization and see a reasonable danger that we might wipe ourselves out with in a century or two of developing nuclear weapons, or as a result of unbridled environmental destruction and overpopulation. However, it's very egotistical to imagine that we are typical in our capacity for self destructive behaviors.
As our detection capabilities grow, so do the results of the Drake Equation, which, after all, is still just an estimate of detectable civilizations in our Galaxy.
originally posted by: MikhailBakunin
they don't need to... They can observe us from their homestead
originally posted by: yourmaker
What's your take on the possibility of them sending probes or AI out into the cosmos reaching our star system?
At 100 light-years, something the size of a Honda Accord — which I propose as a standard imaging test object — subtends an angle of a half-trillionth of a second of arc. In case that number doesn’t speak to you, it’s roughly the apparent size of a cell nucleus on Pluto, as viewed from Earth.
You will not be stunned to hear that resolving something that minuscule requires a telescope with a honking size. At ordinary optical wavelengths, “honking” works out to a mirror 100 million miles across. You could nicely fit a reflector that large between the orbits of Mercury and Mars. Big, yes, but it would permit you to examine exoplanets in incredible detail.
originally posted by: alldaylong
It may not or never be on our own timeline.
The age of Planet Earth is around 4.5 billion years.
Humans have only been on Earth for the past 2.5 million years. That is just a blink of an eye compared to the age of Earth. That's over 4 billion years without human intelligent life on Earth. And we cannot even leave our own Solar System at this time.
Likewise the same timeline could possibly exist on other Planets in The Milky Way. Some Planets are much older and some younger that Earth. Therefore if the same rules exist on life being formed on those Planets, then it leaves us to being " all out of sync".
Younger Planets may not evolve life for billions of years in the future. Older Planets may have had life billions of years in the past and has since died out.
Therefore i think for there to be life at the same time on even two Planets in The Milky Way ( i.e Earth and a an other ) is very slim. That's why i don't believe we are being visited from E.T.
You may or may not agree.
originally posted by: duaneology
Do you believe in mathematics?
Do you believe in the science of probability?
If so then it would be impossible to accept that life isn't abundant in the universe.
originally posted by: Blue Shift
originally posted by: alldaylong
If E.T. did exist in The Galaxy, it would be pure luck they came toward Earth, when there are so many other directions they could head for.
Here's something to consider as well... No matter which direction an alien went from their home planet, unless they headed dead straight for us, in an expanding universe they would always be going rapidly away from us. If they started on a less-than-straight line from their planet to ours, even going at the speed of light, because of the expansion of the universe they would be traveling on a parabolic course farther and farther away from us as time went on. And the farther they are from us when they start, the farther away from us they would go.
So they better have either pretty good aim or a LOT of power to make continuous course changes if they're going to hit our bullseye.