X3 Solar Flare from AR2192

Nothing to worry about here, I got a pile of coffee to drink if the power goes out. I just bought sixteen canned salmon on sale too, seven and a half ounce cans of wild caught Alaskan pink salmon for a buck twenty nine.

Rats, the internet will be down I suppose. I guess I'll have to start putting stuff away for winter if the power goes out.

a reply to: rickymouse

Haha. The power shouldn't be affected... but if we did get hit with a big enough flare to take out the grid, I don't think 16 cans of salmon is going to sustain you for months/years.

I want Phage here now. Has he been watching this?

Spaceweather.com has updated with some info on the event. It looks like there is not a significant CME attached to this flare. We dodged another bullet!

a reply to: DantesPeak

I don't think x class flares are a danger until they are x-10 or above, then only if they are a direct hit and the cme evolved. I could be wrong but multiple smaller x class flares could be bad as well.

a reply to: LDragonFire

Bingo! I sure as hell hope Ed knows what he is doing time line wise , although the rock comet shower is a good clue.
Anyone still laughing at Dames?

a reply to: bluemooone2

Dames has been wrong for years. Predicting an x flare from a sunspot with a 65% chance of producing an x flare isn't exactly a hit. So yes, still laughing at Dr. Doom.

originally posted by: AnteBellum
a reply to: DantesPeak

I guess that's a bad thing?

Not extremely affluent on this science.

For you.
cse.ssl.berkeley.edu...

Solar flares and CMEs or coronal mass ejections are not the same thing although they often occur together. Each can also occur on its own.

Why would it take years to rebuild? We don't have to discover the technology all over again. We already know how this all works. It will only take manpower. That whole Schick about going back to the stone age makes no sense in any light. People lived without electricity as little as 100 years ago and they were still technologically way more advanced than the stone age. It's not like everyone is going to forget how to build an electrical grid or how to wire a house. We won't have to start with zero knowledge about electrical power. But I guess it sells books and garners clicks on the internet so it's all good. Shakes head.

Also only the portion of earth actually facing the sun when it hit would be affected not the whole planet. reply to: DantesPeak

Yes all of us are laughing at him. a reply to: bluemooone2

a reply to: bluemooone2

Is that you Mr. Dames? If so, HAHAHAH!!

I'm still waiting for Ed's Blight to arrive from space and wipe out all of the Earths greenery. His rate of success is no better than anyone elses who make continual guesses. Eventually, one of your guesses comes right. As far as the kill shot goes, he's not the first, nor the second, nor the third to suggest as much will eventually happen. I think he's borrowed much from other predictions.

a reply to: AutumnWitch657

It's true, people 100 years ago did live without electricity. However, those people are now dead, and our society is no longer built to deal with not having electricity. We no longer have horses and wagons to get around, and many homes rely on electric heat.

It may not take years to rebuild, but think about it. Let's say North America's side of the Earth was facing the Sun when a big CME hit. The entire continent's grid is taken out. Nobody has electricity, including grocery stores, and gas stations. Sure, some people have generators, but they're only going to work until you run out of gasoline or battery. How are you going to get more gasoline? The gas station has no power to pump it. How will grocery stores restock? There's no gasoline for their trucks to transport any food.

To your point about only needing manpower to rebuild... do you know how to build a transformer or rewire a house? I know I don't, and I know most people today rely heavily on the internet to learn how to do anything. Of course there are electricians and people skilled in that area, but there aren't enough of them to rebuild the grid of an entire country in a short amount of time. And moreover, can they really do it without the aid of computers? Schools do not teach useful skills anymore. Shop class and home economics are a joke. When I took those classes 10-15 years ago, we learned how to bake things in a microwave, make a pillow with a sewing machine, cut wood with a power saw, and make an aerodynamic toy "car" with a computer and a block of wood. None of those are useful skills in this kind of situation. What they should be teaching are things like how to reap and sow a vegetable garden, how to build a structure with proper support and insulation, how to use an axe, etc.

To make it worse, imagine this all happened in the dead of winter. Even if we needed manpower alone to rebuild quickly, we'd still have a huge problem, because people are not going to remain calm in an event like this. When people start running out of food, or are living without heat, they're going to look for ways to survive. That will inevitably lead to conflict between those that have the means to survive and those that do not.

It's a worst case scenario for sure. Maybe it wouldn't be that bad, but it's hard to say as we've never faced anything so catastrophic on a mass scale before.

Oh come on. Everyone of us has lived through some form of power outage. And what we have that our ancestors didn't have are gas generators. No I don't know a thing about building a power grid but I'm going to assume that those that do will step up to the plate. As for knowledge I guess you're young and don't remember encyclopedias and library books. The knowledge is all in there. Why can't we run wires without a computer? What is going to happen to the internet anyway? It will still be there. Like I said if it was a powerful CME it still would only effect the part of earth it hits. Not the whole planet. And to your last point if it happens in winter there are kerosene heaters that don't need electricity.
Really were not as xxxed as many think. They are just not thinking it through. a reply to: DantesPeak


PS No cook worth their salt would bake a cake in a microwave. Yuck...

I missed this. Gas stations have tanks that can be opened and siphoned. We don't need electricity. Grocery stores would get the gas they need local governments would Make sure of it. Hospitals and police stations would get gas too.
and what's to stop the corner shell station from hooking up a generator to run the pumps if push comes to shove. reply to: DantesPeak

a reply to: TheBlackDog

Realizing that most of what Ed says sounds bug poo crazy I am laughing also but please take heed here.
If you have had my experiences (that I freely admit take place in my head and are basically unprovable) You would be laughing but also be aware .
Or are you saying that this is not happening?

a reply to: AutumnWitch657

Laugh on ma chérie.
By the way,I suggest that you stock up on marshmallows because we are going to need them, and sunscreen of course.

originally posted by: AutumnWitch657
Why would it take years to rebuild? We don't have to discover the technology all over again. We already know how this all works. It will only take manpower. That whole Schick about going back to the stone age makes no sense in any light. People lived without electricity as little as 100 years ago and they were still technologically way more advanced than the stone age. It's not like everyone is going to forget how to build an electrical grid or how to wire a house. We won't have to start with zero knowledge about electrical power. But I guess it sells books and garners clicks on the internet so it's all good. Shakes head.

Also only the portion of earth actually facing the sun when it hit would be affected not the whole planet. reply to: DantesPeak

From what I understand North Americas power grid has 9 large transformer type devices, if these fail for whatever reason our grid will collapse. From what I understand these huge devices take years (2-3) to build under current situations, and these devices are not manufactured on the North American continent.

If the grid collapses yes people will be able to pump gas from current storage tanks under gas station and tanker trucks that might be stranded on highways, but only older vehicles will work considering all modern vehicles use computers and circuits that will be fired from a significant emp. The tanks under gas stations are rarely filled to capacity, they are filled with a average of past usage as gas has a shelf live. If the grid that resupplies these tanks collapses they will not be resupplied.

100% of our logistics that tell the tractor trailer trucks were to go what to pick up and where to deliver are all gps run and if you think any satellites would survive a x flare over 10 is wishful thinking as we have lost satellites from much smaller flares.

From the link I posted from Ed Dames he clearly states its not just one flare but many, he also states that not all power grids will collapse just most of them. He also states there is a huge sun spot opposite of AR2192 on the other side of the sun so for this prediction we will see in a week if he was accurate or no.

a reply to: AutumnWitch657

Oh come on. Everyone of us has lived through some form of power outage.

It's not just a typical power outage(and isn't it fun to eat cold Campbell's vegetable soup?) it's a matter of affecting massive power grid that serves many many businesses, hospitals and the like.

Today, we depend much more heavily upon electronics and electricity than we did in 1859. If a similar solar superstorm were to hit us now, we'd be in trouble. The magnetic forces would induce electricity in any large conductor. That includes power transformers and the power grid itself.
That's not the end of the bad news. The power grid in North America operates at near capacity. It wouldn't be able to handle the increased electrical load from a solar superstorm. Power lines could sag and even snap as a result. Massive power outages could affect much of the continent. The magnetic fluctuations would interfere with radio signals, and communication and satellite systems would collapse as well.

It could take weeks or months to repair the damage. During that time, people would have no way to find out what was going on. Emergency services would face serious challenges. While the magnetic fields would probably not short out individual electronics devices like cell phones or computers, communications systems could fail regionally. In other words, small devices would still work but would lack the services they require to be useful.

science.howstuffworks.com...

so yah we'd survive but it wouldn't be fun

PS No cook worth their salt would bake a cake in a microwave. Yuck...

nice try. Got a back up propane burner to bake your cake in? People en masse are not prepared for such an event.

Grocery stores would get the gas they need local governments would Make sure of it. Hospitals and police stations would get gas too.

Our government cannot even contain an ebola virus properly. Are you sure you want to trust that our government has this type of event covered? Too much nanny statism and too many Hollywood disaster movies make people think the government will take care of all.

If the grid collapses, local governments working with local leo would need to secure local resources food, water medicines. If they have a nuclear power plant they would need to secure a supply of fuel to run the generators that keep the plant cool of face a meltdown. The problem with logistics of moving fuel were needed would be a struggle, the nuclear plants would be a priority, local command and control would be the second priority and hospitals would be the third priority, you see where your house isn't on this list.

They would have to secure local warehouses, grain elevators to secure foods and medicines, many current medicines in use are addictive and cause psychotic reactions if not weaned properly many medicines if stopped will cause death within weeks or less.

The local governments would have to give out supplies based on those working for them first the average citizen last. With no resupply how long will these supplies last? How many police, line workers, electrical engineers will show up for work unless there families were supplied?

Seriously, once your power goes out and you have cooked and ate your perishable foods, how will you feed your family when the grocery store shelf's are empty and money has the value of a fire starter? And when every single neighbor in your town or city is in the same boat?