Marysville Police Were Scheduled to run a SWAT Training Exercise

a reply to: jude11

What exactly have I distorted?

11 cases out of millions shows there's nothing more than a casual relationship between drills and 'live' events.

If anything it's those that claim there is a link that are distorting things..

It's the same as people thinking a full moon is linked to spikes in crime.

a reply to: jude11

Oh and if you hope it's not true, why are you getting all defensive when I call it for what it is?

Facts don't lie, nor do they have an agenda.

a reply to: Chadwickus

It's the same as people thinking a full moon is linked to spikes in crime.

well i am not so sure hospital staff would agree with you...

Results: Of 91 patients with violent and acute behavioural disturbance, 21 (23%) presented during the full moon — double the number for other lunar phases (P = 0.002). Sixty (66%) had either alcohol intoxication or psychostimulant toxicity, and five attacked staff (biting [2], spitting [1], kicking [1] and scratching [1]). In contrast, 512 hospital security calls for patients with less severe behaviour were evenly distributed throughout the lunar cycle. Conclusion: Violent and acute behavioural disturbance manifested more commonly during the full moon.

www.mja.com.au...

it would appear that drills and actual events seem to coincide to often to NOT raise any eyebrows

a reply to: hopenotfeariswhatweneed

It's not really the thread for it, but a single study won't help, especially if when using a single data point (like 1 hospital)

If you conduct a meta analysis on the subject, you'll find there is no corelation.

But like I said, not really the topic of this thread, I just used it as an example to make my point.

originally posted by: Chadwickus
a reply to: hopenotfeariswhatweneed

It's not really the thread for it, but a single study won't help, especially if when using a single data point (like 1 hospital)

If you conduct a meta analysis on the subject, you'll find there is no corelation.

But like I said, not really the topic of this thread, I just used it as an example to make my point.

Its not really a great example though, you are using this example to insult people, kinda, or so it seems to me, but to be honest, your example is far from a "crazy" belief.

Have you conducted a meta analysis by any chance? Or are you making things up as you go?




By the way, you ARE distorting data, 11 "coincidences" is a pretty bad track record if you ask me, yet you think we are idiots for "pulling this out of proportion"



You seem to indicate you know a thing or two about statistics, well then riddle me this

Why are you using wrong data to prove theres nothing suspicious going on? You seem to neglect the fact that while there could have been thousands of drills, THESE DRILLS WERE SPREAD OUT OVER THE YEAR OVER MANY SCHOOLS, implying that if an event happens somewhere, this CANT be explained with your ridiculous theory of "well there are x drills every year"

Yes, there are x drills every year, but those drills dont occur nationwide every single time one happens, do they?? No, today its school 1, tomorrow school 2, then 3,4,5,... And COINCIDENTALLY 11 times, that is ELEVEN TIMES a gunman ACCIDENTALLY chose THAT SPECIFIC SCHOOL and THAT SPECIFIC DATE?

You're either missing the point or purposefully ignoring it, I dont know...



The more you make me think about it the more its obvious that whatever it was, you have to be pretty narrow minded to be satisfied with the explanation that its all coincidence. If you know statistics, you'd at least agree that the way YOU presented them is even more skewed. 11 out of any number would not be a big deal, if the x number was a common nationwide occurrence, which ITS NOT, meaning the gunmen on 11 occasions did an oopsie. Thats a whole bunch of unprepared lunatics picking the wrong date on their calendars, wouldnt you agree? No Im sure

You go ahead and believe that, I'll remain sceptical as I've always been.

originally posted by: Chadwickus
a reply to: jude11

Oh and if you hope it's not true, why are you getting all defensive when I call it for what it is?

Because your "this is BS" statements do nothing to prove it isn't true.

Peace

a reply to: Chadwickus

Oh and besides, it is easy to dismiss the entire study as you did, probably due to a complete lack of experience, which is perfectly fine, however, in that case, this study doesnt apply to you either.

We're all aware its not you that turns into a werewolf at full moon, most people dont, by the way, but this quote seems rather important, taken directly from the studies closing words. Note the wording in bold that I emphasised...

Our study supports the premise that only individuals with violent and acute behavioural disturbance are affected by the phases of the moon. These individuals, with the enlightened need to use alcohol and psychostimulants to manifest their delirium, are far more likely to do so in the light of the full moon. Is it just much more fun to indulge in drugs and alcohol under a full moon? Or is their behavioural disturbance directly influenced by the moon?

Unless you count yourself in this category (sadly I have to count myself in), this doesnt even apply to you so unless you worked in ER, which you wouldve mentioned by now, there is no way of knowing either. There is an effect of which, unless you are going to suggest that drunkards and druggies alike all get together on a full moon to have a party that keeps getting out of hand, Im very curious to your "other" explanation (which kinda indicates you never even read the study, which is fine)

Not everything in the world that you never get to experience first hand is bull#, you know?


Completely OT, apologies to the mods, but that quote kinda stood out upon rereading the study just now.