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originally posted by: Krazysh0t
a reply to: Cornczech
I live in Baltimore, MD. Our population is 622 thousand people. 1000 cases would be a pretty low number too. Not even 1%. But hey, feel free to panic. I hear that always ends well.
originally posted by: ikonoklast
originally posted by: PlanetXisHERE
a reply to: ikonoklast
So, what's the worse case scenario worldwide, based on extrapolation of these charts?
Ebola spreads exponentially. From a single case, it only has to double less than 33 times to exceed the total population of Earth. So the worst case scenario is that everyone on the planet who does not have natural immunity or cannot isolate themselves would catch it.
Between 50-90% of those who catch Ebola die. 70.8% is believed to be the most accurate current figure based on known clinical data. But that's for people who received medical treatment where the cases were followed from start to finish. In a worst case scenario it would eventually reach a point where most cases could not obtain medical care and the death rate would likely worsen.
The charts are based on reported cases and deaths from WHO. This outbreak has already doubled about 13 times in about 10 months. It only has to double at most 20 more times to have doubled 33 times. If it continues doubling at the current pace (doubling again 13 times every 10 months), that will take a little more than 15 months, which would be before the end of January 2016.
Long before then, economies and social systems would collapse in pretty much total chaos. Food and other necessities would be in short supply. A worst case scenario with Ebola would likely be the end of this civilization as we know it.
I'm really hoping we can avoid such a worst case scenario, though I am not seeing much reason to expect that. To avoid this, you have to bring the growth down to where there is an average of less than 1 new case from current cases (R0 less than 1). Then it stops doubling and slowly dies out.
I only know of 3 ways to do that, but perhaps there are more:
2. A treatment or vaccine that can be produced in sufficient quantity
3. Luck or divine intervention
The longer the epidemic grows, the more difficult #1 becomes because there are too many people infected, and over a wider area. At least one of the top Ebola experts in the world believes #2 is unlikely to be achievable in time and that belief in miracle technology being invented and produced in time makes it less likely enough will be done for #1 to be achieved in time. As for #3, some believe the Spanish Flu epidemic only ended because that virus mutated enough to no longer be so deadly to humans.
originally posted by: PurpleDog UK
originally posted by: Malraux
Is Ebola highly contagious like a cold or flu or does it take a "fluke" to get it?
A common cold requires 100 to 250 cold viruses or virions to be transmitted…….
The Ebola virus requires 1 (one) Virion or virus particle for transmission…….
It's VERY contagious……. info from friends who are virologists in the UK.
originally posted by: Painterz
Flu kills around 50,000 people in the USA every year. And nobody talks about bugging out in flu season...
originally posted by: WeRpeons
a reply to: Cornczech
When it reaches the alarming rate and an unacceptable amount of the human population is dying, the world's best scientific minds will come together to help defeat this virus. It's a shame the governments world over can't let their hunger for power, territory and differences keep them from working together to help benefit mankind. Just think how many medical, environmental and energy problems would be solved if the world brightest minds focused more on humanities problems than developing technology and biological viruses to be used in wars.
provides updated estimates of the range of flu-associated deaths that occurred in the United States during the three decades prior to 2007. CDC estimates that from the 1976-1977 season to the 2006-2007 flu season, flu-associated deaths ranged from a low of about 3,000 to a high of about 49,000 people.
There are an estimated 200 000 cases of yellow fever, causing 30 000 deaths, worldwide each year, with 90% occurring in Africa.
An estimated 500 000 people with severe dengue require hospitalization each year, a large proportion of whom are children. About 2.5% of those affected die.
HIV continues to be a major global public health issue, having claimed more than 39 million lives so far. In 2013, 1.5 [1.4–1.7] million people died from HIV-related causes globally.
In 2012, malaria caused an estimated 627 000 deaths (with an uncertainty range of 473 000 to 789 000), mostly among African children.
Infection causes tens of thousands of deaths every year, mostly in Asia and Africa.
Pneumonia kills an estimated 1.1 million children under the age of five years every year – more than AIDS, malaria and tuberculosis combined.
originally posted by: phinubian
a reply to: Cornczech
How long can the virus live on a coin or paper money? all this talk of washing hands tells me that money can carry it just long enough to become exposed, it becomes almost as surreal or shall I say as real as the kindergarten, circle dot, cootie shot, except for this cootie, there is no immediate cure in sight and from the looks of things it can become a different type of cootie, to me the fate is sealed and what we see is the beginning of mass death beyond comprehension.
At some point in an infectious sick person will be handing someone money, from his hand and that has been on his body, they have probably sneezed or coughed on it, I remember the doctor on CNN saying they they burn all clothes and sheets of people that have Ebola, is this being overlooked?
I also thought that since it will be cold in the North and Northeast this might help but from what I have read, the virus likes the cold and the dark, to survive.
originally posted by: Cornczech
a reply to: Krazysh0t
I think I meant 100 cases in MY city....not just in the US or the world.