Ebola Now Has 50% Chance Of Reaching UK Within 3 Weeks, Scientists Warn

originally posted by: PhoenixOD
a reply to: FlyersFan

I don't know why they picked three weeks.
Seems arbitrary to me.
They couldn't possibly know that.

Because the incubation period for Ebola is 2-21 days (3 weeks).

I'm thinking they 'lost track' of a possible carrier.

This is the study the article is based on:

It's only a matter of time, some researchers are warning, before isolated cases of Ebola start turning up in developed nations, as well as hitherto-unaffected African countries.

This is something ATSers havr been saying for weeks, even months, now and it is only recently being reported as being said in the scientific community.

The probability of seeing at least one imported case of Ebola in the U.S. is as high as 18 percent by late September, researchers reported Tuesday in the journal PLOS Currents: Outbreaks. That's compared to less than 5 percent right now.

As time goes by, it becomes more of a certainly; when, not if.

Now it is not when, it is here and in Spain.

"What is happening in West Africa is going to get here. We can't escape that at this point," says physicist Alessandro Vespignani, the senior author on the study, who analyzes the spread of infectious diseases at Northeastern University.

To be clear, the projection is for at least one imported case of Ebola — not for the kind of viral mayhem afflicting Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone.

"What we could expect, if there is an importation, would be very small clusters of cases, between one and three," Vespignani says.

Recongize that name?

This is where I choose to differ from the experts, I do not think it will be as easy to contain here as they seem to think.

There's a 25 to 28 percent chance that an Ebola case will turn up in the U.K. by late September. Belgium, France and Germany will have lower risk. "But it's not negligible," Vespignani says. "Sooner or later, they will arrive."

The closer to Africa the more likely it is to show, and sooner.

The researchers calculated the impact of severe restrictions on flights from Ebola-affected regions. An 80 percent reduction in air travelers would do no more than delay the impact of Ebola by a few weeks. (A 100 percent choke-off of air travel is considered impossible.)

Impossible by choice.

"Unless you can completely shut down the transportation systems, these kinds of efforts will, at best, buy you a little time," Longini says. "And they can be quite counterproductive because you're interrupting the flow of help, goods and services. It can make the epidemic worse in the country that's being quarantined."

All commercial traffic should have been halted weeks ago and only allow aid/food/supply flights, but that was deemed too damaging economically.

A Few Ebola Cases Likely In U.S., Air Traffic Analysis Shows

The utter and absolute incompetence of the CDC shows how well its going to be contained here.

a reply to: Boeing777

It's actually only 15%. It says so on skynews!

scientist who did the research says the current flight restrictions to the region mean the risk is 15%.

And even that figure looks a little pessimistic.

news.sky.com...

i wonder what the percentages would be if a infected person or persons became symptomatic while attending/performing the Hajj.