Former Top Official Says Kim Jong-un Is No Longer in Control of North Korea

An elite group of exiles from North Korea gathered in September in the Netherlands to discuss the state of the regime they used to serve. The conference included top diplomats, an ex-senior official of the Ministry of Security, and a high-ranking military officer, but the keynote address was given by Jang Jin-sung, formerly a key member of Kim Jong-il's propaganda machine. Included in Jang's speech was a surprising assertion: North Korea is in the midst of a civil war.

Former Top Official Says Kim Jong-un Is No Longer in Control of North Korea

According to Jang — a former counterintelligence official and poet laureate under Kim Jong-il — members of the government's Organization and Guidance Department (OGD), a powerful group of officials that once reported only to Kim Jong-il, have stopped taking orders from his son, Kim Jong-un. The OGD, Jang says, has effectively taken control of the country, and a conflict is simmering between factions that want to maintain absolute control over the economy and others seeking to gain wealth through foreign trade and a slightly more open market.

"On one hand, it's people who want to maintain a regime monopoly," Jang told VICE News through a translator in an interview Thursday. "On the other hand, it's not like people are fighting against the regime, but in a policy sense they want to take advantage to get influence. It's not actually consciously civil war, but there these two incompatible forces at play."

These reports should be taken with a pinch of salt, as the comments were made by former regime officials. That said, Jang Jin-Sung was a propagandist for the regime who still has ties to individuals in the Northern state.

He claims that there was a 'coup' which actually happened last year with the purging of Kim Jong-Un's uncle by marriage, Jang Sung-taek:

Jang, however, believes the coup actually happened in 2013, and says Kim Jong-un is only serving as a puppet leader with officials from the OGD pulling the strings....According to Jang, the coup coincided with the execution of Jang Sung-taek, Kim Jong-un's uncle by marriage. A longtime political rival of the OGD but considered untouchable because of his family ties to Kim Jong-il, Jang Sung-taek was officially charged with "consolidating his own power with factional maneuvering" and selling off state resources at below market value for personal profit. He was summarily purged last December, and a popular but false rumor had him being eaten alive by dogs.

"When Jang Sung-taek was executed that was, basically, that totally broke everything," Jang said. "You just can't touch a Kim family member publicly… It's the OGD's claim to legitimacy. It's them saying no one is more legitimate than them. By Jang dying, Kim Jong-un is now surrounded by the OGD."

...

"The real power resides within that one department, the ODG, that was groomed to bureaucratic perfection by Kim Jong-il," Breucker told VICE News. "When he was alive, he was in practical sense heading the department. Kim Jong-un is not. It serves him, but it more serves the legacy of Kim Jong-il. Those don't always coincide."

This is not good news.

While i know everybody cheers when anything adverse is announced regarding Kim Jong-Un, i can't think of a worse situation for the North Korean state. A coup or ideological civil war could tear the state apart and create a power vacuum where the Kim family, military and government agencies vie for control of the state.

I'm not keen on the reports suggesting that Kim Jong-Un is just a puppet leader, as he has been hard at work purging people left and right in a seeming bid to retain sole leadership. This, in my opinion, would put him at odds with the OGD, as developed by Kim Jong-Il, which would likely want to retain or improve its power under Kim Jong-Un. If the above instances are true, it is likely that they have gained power, and hold an effective grip on governmental structures surrounding Kim Jong-Un, effectively making him powerless.

The statement comes at a time where rumours have surfaced suggesting a military coup of the North Korean regime. China has denied the rumours, but the USA has stated that it can't confirm them.

I have speculated in the past that Kim Jong-Un has improved the living standards of the North Korean populace, but has had to fight the old power structures in doing so. I'm not sure what exactly is happening in North Korea right now. But whatever it is, it's not good news for the people.

Not everyBody. Why should the whole country be held responsible for the actions of those in charge of said country? Need more "proof" read Your own signature.

a reply to: JimNasium

They shouldn't be held responsible for the actions of the state's leaders.

If North Korea is thrown into disarray, it would be disastrous for the general population. Here's hoping that something good will come to the people of North Korea soon. I can't see any light for the people though, especially if a power vacuum were to arise.

The people of NK deserve a break, they have suffered enough, it just depresses me.

originally posted by: daaskapital
a reply to: JimNasium

They shouldn't be held responsible for the actions of the state's leaders.

If North Korea is thrown into disarray, it would be disastrous for the general population. Here's hoping that something good will come to the people of North Korea soon. I can't see any light for the people though, especially if a power vacuum were to arise.

There is no power in situ, NK has little resources, and few friends. That salt-of-the-Earth people get hurt by government machinations, is real enough just about everywhere in the world.

There's no Berlin Wall scenario in my crystal ball. Pak, Geun-Hye has got a long-standing family debt to settle with the leadership of North Korea. You could safely bet on a slew of trials for crimes against humanity if 'they' de-mined the DMZ.

FWIW, there's no big noise in local news over here.

A coup in North Korea, where no one is really sure and the media doesn't report on it is a lot like the coup here in the USA with Obama's quasi-Marxist communist takeover of all branches of government with hand picked loyal communist cronies, and a laundry list of other illegal actions is very similar..

I wonder if the citizens know, or if they just deny it all like here?

Very interesting times.

I do not think the general population could be much worse off to be honest. They would likely invite any hope of improvement, which does not seem likely even if a putsch was to succeed. The truth is that we can only speculate regarding the true state of affairs for the average citizen of North Korea. Life is inherently better for those living in Pyongyang, and no westerner has been allowed to view what goes on inside the country's depths. We know atrocities are being committed, and in fact, we know that some of the prison camps have been expanded since Kim Jong-Un has inherited power, due to satellite imagery. The majority of intelligence comes from such indirect sources, as North Korea is one of those countries where it is virtually impossible to embed a resident intelligence agent. Although I would not doubt that we have official cover spies in some of the embassies in Pyongyang. The US doesn't have an embassy there, but we do have an American interest section within the Swiss embassy, and we also have allied countries with offices within Pyongyang. But I highly doubt any useful military or political intel comes from these assets.

Defectors seem to be the best sources of information. Anyway, so it is quite possible that Jong-Un is a puppet, but I find it difficult to believe, and here's why. The people in NK are taught to revere their leader, and at the first sign of a coup Jong-Un would have had the majority of the military on his side. I am quite certain that more people would have sided with the leader than with the "old guard," and again this stems from the fact that North Koreans are taught that their leader is a god from the moment they are old enough to learn. With no outside information coming in there is nobody to challenge their beliefs, and one would be hard-pressed to change their minds if they have been indoctrinated from birth. My aunt was born and grew up in Germany, and her grandmother reached adulthood when the Nazis were in power in Germany, and she had moved to the US and had lived here up until her death about a decade ago. I remember her talking about those times, and till the day she died she never believed any of the bad things that Hitler was accused of orchestrating. Why? Because of that same type of indoctrination, or at least in my opinion that is why. And the opinion of the majority of the western world was against her beliefs, yet that still couldn't change what she had been taught. And I doubt she was the only one.

I am just attempting to establish that the military of North Korea is not likely to side with anyone but their leader. The military is given top priority in North Korea, and they are well-funded when compared with the other state organizations, which will go a long way to boosting morale and keeping them content. The average solider is not going to change his situation with a coup in my opinion, so why not stick with the person who already gives the military top priority? Of course it may not be that simple, and I admit I could be wrong. My opinion stems from what I believe I know about the country and the people in general, but if my assumptions and beliefs are wrong then it is more likely that my conclusions are also incorrect.

I could definitely see certain individuals within the government wanting to seize power. They want to protect their own necks, and if they feel that there is too much instability and that they might be next, they may feel forced to take some kind of action. But what does not make any sense to me is why they would keep Jong-Un around. That seems way too dangerous. The only reason to do so would be to keep the people under control by having their real leader issue the orders and appear to run the country, but that is precisely my point...if he HAS to be around to keep the people in line, then how could those perpetrating the coup ever have gotten the support for the act in the first place?

Of course keeping the leader in a puppet position is beneficial, as it does not make the country appear unstable. If they ousted Jong-Un then they have to fear actions from the west, and maybe even some action from China, who would attempt to stabilize the country in some manner. But Jong-Un would never have gone along with things unless he was forced, and I just cannot see the other North Korean leaders having the power to force him to do anything. So I think that if there was a coup, Jong-Un would be out of the picture altogether. He would be either in jail or would have been murdered. Most likely the latter, as that is the only way for those seizing power to ensure that he doesn't get out and rally the support of the military. So they would kill him as an insurance policy of sorts, making sure that they wouldn't be killed in the future by Jong-Un under some unforeseen and unplanned circumstances. Hasn't it been in the news that Jong-Un hasn't been seen in public for a while? Could he not have been eliminated?

If he has been, I feel extremely confident that he would have been poisoned as opposed to anything else. This is the only method that makes any sense. Those responsible for a coup could not risk having the military or even military factions rising up in defiance because of an obvious killing of their leader. Therefore they would make it appear an accident, or a natural death from illness of some type. Enlisting the help of a doctor or two would be much easier than enlisting the support of the entire military and Jong-Un's bodyguards. The last video I saw of him was the one in which he was limping. I do not know if that could have been a side effect of some type of poisoning or anything, and even though it is unlikely it is still a possibility.

So the fact that the talk of a coup is in the air, and from a seemingly reliable source, leads me to believe that "something" is likely going on. But I just do not believe that Jong-Un is the puppet of any other leaders within the North Korean government. The last thing I wanted to write about is what actions the west would take if North Korea suddenly destabilized. The US has performed military exercises modelling this very thing, and the truth of the matter is that it would take far too many US troops and resources to move into North Korea and seize nuclear materials, which would be the top priority. It seems unfeasible for the most part. However, we could rest assured that China would not step up in defense of North Korea at that time, but even so it would still be extremely difficult to seize nuclear materials with an outright and conventional military thrust. If it were up to me to make such a decision, I think that I would rely on JSOC for the actual deep infiltration and extraction or destruction of certain materials, but I would rely on conventional forces for a feint in the south. This would distract the already disorganized NKorean military, who would be in relative disarray after such a destabilization, and force them to believe they are going to be invaded. Thus they would move reserve military resources to the SKorean border after it was obvious that a mobilization was taking place in the south. Deception is always one of the greatest military tactics at one's disposal, and has been responsible for some of the most important military victories in history. The allied invasion of Normandy comes to mind, an invasion that likely would not have succeeded had the allies not convinced Hitler and the OKH that the invasion would come at Calais.

originally posted by: Snarl
There's no Berlin Wall scenario in my crystal ball. Pak, Geun-Hye has got a long-standing family debt to settle with the leadership of North Korea. You could safely bet on a slew of trials for crimes against humanity if 'they' de-mined the DMZ.

FWIW, there's no big noise in local news over here.

It was my understanding that while SK wants reunification long term they're of the opinion that to absorb NK at this point would be disastrous due to the need to support everyone and them having no real job skills. NK has to catch up a bit before they would ever do anything.

a reply to: JiggyPotamus
The story is he has gout and thats why the limping and reason for his absence(getting treatment), whether its true or not is of course a "who knows"..interesting situation for sure.

I suspect his sister has a short time to live. If he dies or is removed some how. She would take control, but her reign will be a short one. Someone from the military will end up being the dictator.

a reply to: Aazadan
I don't know it would be alot different from the unification of E/W Germany..S.K. are doing ok.