Texas Ebola Patient's Possible Contacts Now Reach 100

Captain Trips y'all . . .

Seriously shouldn't be re reading that book right now . . .

originally posted by: HardCorps

... you know this is all starting to sound like they really don't know how many people he came in contact with or how long he was contagious? ...

You think? You think that maybe -just maybe - the CDC and the government are not omniscient? Maybe they're just humans like you and me and have to do a lot of deduction, guessing, and just making stuff up as they go along?

Last I checked, medical professionals and government officials had not yet been granted demi-god status. So, yeah, I'd say it's a safe to assume that they "really don't know."

a reply to: HardCorps

It just doesn't make logical sense that this incident will be wrapped up with a neat bow. There are too many unknowns, including when Patient Z became symptomatic. For the CDC to say that everyone Pt Z came in contact with at airports and on airplanes will be "okay," not infected, is facile to say the least. How can the CDC know for sure? Going by the history? A patient might feel okay during the long trip, until he reaches, say, Dulles. A little stiff from the tight seat in coach. Just a little perspiration on his brow. One swipe of the hand takes care of that. And the hand grips a handrail, etc. His gut might feel rocky, prompting a trip to a public restroom. But still, he may keep going until the symptoms worsen.

Duncan's contacts will be monitored for 21 days -- the longest amount of time it takes for Ebola symptoms to show up.If any of Duncan's contacts show symptoms, they will be isolated.The paramedics who transported Duncan to the hospital haven't shown symptoms, said Rawlings, the Dallas mayor.Neither have his girlfriend's children...But if one of those contacts ends up having Ebola, the tedious processes of tracking and monitoring a web of contacts would have to start all over again.

www.cnn.com...

Last I checked, medical professionals and government officials had not yet been granted demi-god status. So, yeah, I'd say it's a safe to assume that they "really don't know."

That's why the medical professionals ask questions, the proper questions, to have an understanding of the situation.

a reply to: HardCorps

This guy came in to contact with way more than 100 people since he's been been back. He would have come in to contact with 100 in the airport.

I get the CDC doesn't want to cause panic but they're not being realistic with the 100 estimate either.

originally posted by: roadgravel

Last I checked, medical professionals and government officials had not yet been granted demi-god status. So, yeah, I'd say it's a safe to assume that they "really don't know."

That's why the medical professionals ask questions, the proper questions, to have an understanding of the situation.

Exactly: they ask questions because they "really don't know." They take the answers to those questions - some of those answers provided by people who probably weren't really paying attention and can't remember for sure ("From which convenience store did you buy that 44 oz. soft drink?"), and deduce as best they can from it.

My point is, this is nature at work, and sometimes nature is a bitch and she doesn't want to cooperate with people. There is no magic bullet. There is no sure answer. There is no place of ultimate safety. Life is risky.

While staying informed and being prepared are smart, we have to remember that nothing is certain. You have a higher chance of dying today in an automobile accident or from choking on your lunch than you do from Ebola. At least for today.

Perspective.

CNN qualified the statement....100 people with "direct" contact with Duncan.

Does that include the people with indirect contact? People who may have come through the ER after him? People who live in adjacent apartments?

Post I made in another thread on the same subject:

It is now known that the Dallas patient helped move an Ebola infected pregnant woman to a hot zone hospital and then back to her living quarters when she was refused treatment due to overcrowding 3 days prior to his flight to the US. She died later from Ebola.

So the patient was in direct contact with Ebola 72 hours prior to his flight to the US, and was on a flight for roughly 20 hours with layovers and they are saying there was no chance of him being contagious in flight? He was infected for 96 hours/4 days before he even landed in the US.

The math on the 100 people who he made contact with is low based on this information alone. The only way it could be that low is if he flew on a chartered flight, which he did not, and go through a private section of the airport, which he did not. Then after arriving he would have had to go straight to the place he was visiting and not leave with the exception for the first hospital visit which would by itself put the projected number close to 100. Everything he touched is considered contaminated and infectious for hours if not days.

What's so infuriating is the guy had direct contact with a neighbor who died 2 hours later and another who died the following day.

What does he do? He gets on a plane, brings it not only to his family but exposes 100+ people in the process.

That guy knew full well that he had been exposed to the virus before ever boarding that plane.

Remember how they said the US health system was way more capable of stopping the spread of this virus if it ever came to America? Explain to me how sending "contactees" home to shelter in place is a "good idea"?

Ebolas history shows its very very slow to mutate. Not all viruses mutate. Flu is one that does mutate rapidly which is why last year's flu shot is no good this year. Fortunately Ebola is nothing like flu in that regard. The article did say they were casting a wide net and that their expectation was that the potential list would shrink not grow. We certainly don't need to start expounding on probabilities like his luggage or a door knob he may have touched. Ebola is not contagious when there are no symptoms and when symptoms.do present the patient gets very sick very quickly. He would have been obviously ill if he was contagious during his trip so we can probably eliminate anyone on the plane or in the airports as potential victims. reply to: HardCorps

originally posted by: roadgravel
The woman whose house the Dallas patient stayed in has contacted the CDC to inquire about what do about the bedding, etc. She has not heard from them. They did initially tell her to stay at home. Although saying they would stop by daily, they haven't. She hasn't been told anything about contaminated materials.

So with 1000s of employees and millions in the payroll at the CDC, one employee can't call and give instructions?

America's federal system is so screwed up.

They've pretty much guaranteed that everyone in that home will get sick. No one went in, in hazmat suits to clean for them or anything. Apparently she was handed a bottle of bleach, and a few sandwiches , yesterday. And has been taking her own temperature because no one showed up yet today.
I'm watching on CNN, the news anchors sound quite alarmed at how badly this is going.
So many mistakes, so many gaps in proper care.

originally posted by: HardCorps
a reply to: proob4

I had that talk with my wife last night... She's an ER Nurse and by the way... here in Colorado they just went through this huge CDC sponsored training deal for healthcare workers...

Anyway she was telling me Viruses like these are always mutating... She said the this strain might just turn into something totally harmless or into the worse thing we've ever seen in human history.

her point being they we can't trust the talking heads on TV when they claim there's no danger... it's more of a crapshoot where just hope you don't roll snake-eyes.

Um viruses like this rarely mutate into something harmless. I feel sorry for nurses. They will be the ones required to take care of and put themselves in harms way for peanuts. Every RN or worker that takes care of an Ebola patient should be getting hazard pay

originally posted by: HardCorps
a reply to: proob4

I had that talk with my wife last night... She's an ER Nurse and by the way... here in Colorado they just went through this huge CDC sponsored training deal for healthcare workers...

Anyway she was telling me Viruses like these are always mutating... She said the this strain might just turn into something totally harmless or into the worse thing we've ever seen in human history.

her point being they we can't trust the talking heads on TV when they claim there's no danger... it's more of a crapshoot where just hope you don't roll snake-eyes.

Um viruses like this rarely mutate into something harmless. I feel sorry for nurses. They will be the ones required to take care of and put themselves in harms way for peanuts. Every RN or worker that takes care of an Ebola patient should be getting hazard pay of several 100 an hour.

Read up on how Ebola spreads. It's not contagious before symptoms appear. Incubation is anywhere from two days to twenty one days with four days being the average. It's not contagious during incubation. The medical experts know this and that is why no one is panicking about who he may have been in contact with during his flight. By the time it is contagious the patient is visibly sick. Very sick very quickly prohibiting travel except to an emergency room. eply to: SpaDe_

a reply to: snowspirit

Yes, pretty sad. Huge amounts of money go into a system and this is the result. Time to make some high paid managers look for a new job. No room for excuses.

I am not really surprised by this.

I can't tell you how many times I've seen that ominous phrase posted.
It's never the beginning of anything is how it always turns out. a reply to: proob4

a reply to: AutumnWitch657

Dude was sick before he went to the hospital

It was revealed on Wednesday that Duncan - the first patient diagnosed with Ebola in the US - had visited a Dallas emergency room, but was sent home - despite telling a nurse he had recently visited the disease-hit country of Liberia.

Vomited outside apartment

Two days after that, the man was seen vomiting on the ground outside an apartment complex and was bundled into an ambulance.

DW News

Hard to transmit yeah... but when someone is that sick...that he's puking out on the sidewalk... ????

These people are being monitored for fever? Is that by phone? Or visit? Are they using ankle bracelets or something?

How do they know some of these people aren't slipping out in the night and hopping bars?

How are people with families dealing with this?

Wife on phone: "You say he may have been exposed to Ebola and you are sending him home?"

(looks at kids) "Are you freaking kidding me??!"

The plain sad truth folks is that the best medical centers in the US just don't want you to infect them. "Reverse Isolation" is their solution to keeping their expensive care centers open. In Africa the resources were lacking. Over here they cost too much.

a reply to: FlyersFan


www.nbcnews.com...


This state's quite clearly that he traveled on the 19th and didn't get sick until the 24th. No one at the airport or in the bathroom or handling his luggage were at risk.