Why Quarantine Won't Stop the Ebola Epidemic in West Africa

The latest reports warn Ebola could start spreading as commonly as the flu and become "endemic in the region." The human-to-human case count could soar as high as 1.4 million by January 2015. According to genetic sequencing, all the Ebola infections in this epidemic result from human-to-human transmission.

Fact is though, Ebola is an animal-borne disease - always has been. Wild animals will start getting infected with this new human-Ebola -probably soon- not later. Ebola-susceptible animals include pigs, dogs, rodents, porcupines, antelopes, monkeys, chimpanzees, gorillas and of course, the fruit bats of the Pteropodidae family - suspected to be the main carrier and Ebola reservoir. Once animals start passing this Ebola around to each other, back to people, round and round, back and forth - Ebola will be "endemic."

Many Ebola-susceptible animals are migratory, meaning they move from one region to another, often with the seasons. Of note: Pig-to-pig Ebola transmission is airborne, as is pig-to-monkey transmission. Pigs and dogs, at least, are eating Ebola-infected corpses. Ebola is a respiratory disease in pigs, and dogs get infected but are asymptomatic.

The Ebola victims were buried in an expanding stretch of fresh muddy graves …. No barrier stops the pigs ….from digging in the fresh Ebola graves, which residents say they often do. ….“We have creatures in the community, and they dig in the graves,” ….

Dogs EATING corpses of Ebola victims in Liberia

This study suggests that dogs can be infected by Ebola virus and that the putative infection is asymptomatic.

The big problem in West Africa is lack of manpower. Doctors and trained healthcare workers are needed desperately, and people trained to transport and bury the highly infectious corpses. A few backhoes wouldn't hurt either - so graves can be dug deep enough to keep out the scavengers.

If this new Ebola is allowed to infect the wild animal population, proven epidemic containment methods won't work - and it will be impossible to quarantine. It will spread through Africa into other continents. Think about it, How do you quarantine migratory wild animals and bats?

The map below tells the tale. Looking only at the Ebola-carrier fruit bat's range outlined in magenta, you can see this particular fruit bat populates almost all of the African continent, parts of Europe, Eurasia, Asia, Australia and the island nations. It's range spans Africa, up into Turkey, the coastline of Saudi Arabia, Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, Nepal, the Southern quarter of China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, through Thailand, Cambodia, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Phillipines, New Guinea, around the coast of Australia, and up to the Southern coast of Japan.

Ebola-carrier fruit bat's range outlined in magenta
Source

Some pundits and military strategists still think quarantine is the answer, predicting the epidemic will "burn itself out" - but they know nothing about epidemiology, and mistakenly assume exclusive human-to-human transmission.

johnb, posted on Sep, 23 2014 @ 01:48 PM

….presumably rats and possibly wild dogs and any and all other carrion eaters, birds and insects will be feasting on some of these dead bodies if they are lying in the streets and villages and especially out in the bush.

If pigs, bats (and monkeys?) can catch/carry Ebola then presumably the chances of other animals and insects catching/carrying is massively increasing too - i wonder if anybody is keeping an eye out on the local wildlife and its effects on them….

Maybe, maybe, you might eradicate this Ebola if you napalm and carpet bomb all of West Africa. But most likely, not. Even if it worked, new Ebola strains WILL continue to evolve in Africa, and virulent new diseases WILL continue to emerge around the world.

Fact is, Mad Cow-like prion diseases are now endemic in North America, along with H1N1 swine flu; bird flu is endemic in China, India, Cambodia and Vietnam and spreading. Looks like Ebola is becoming endemic in West Africa along with malaria and a few other choice tropical diseases. Ebola is the scariest though - the deaths are most dramatic, quick and bloody, and sustained human-to-human transmission is new.

'Tis a new world we have created, and the viruses, bacteria, fungi and other microbes are mutating, adapting and evolving like crazy.

What's needed is a new paradigm, given that no one is about to stop the chemical contaminations, pollution and other environmental modifications that accelerate disease evolution. At the least, the world needs a better public health plan for infectious diseases, and faster response protocols.

Replication, Pathogenicity, Shedding, and Transmission of Zaire ebolavirus in Pigs

Ebola's Deadly Jump From Animal to Animal

Ebola may be present in more animals than previously thought, according to researchers studying the deadly virus, which has already been detected in chimpanzees, gorillas, fruit bats, monkeys, antelopes, porcupines, rodents, dogs, pigs and humans.

….Sanders and his team found that the way Ebola infects human cells is nearly identical -- both structurally and biochemically -- to the way that similar viruses enter bird cells. This suggests that the proteins of the virus had a comparatively recent ancestor.

"It is therefore possible that Ebola was at one time associated with a bird host and may even be so today," Sanders said, adding that the bird must hail from Central Africa. That is where the virus was first detected in 1976 and where outbreaks usually occur.

Even plants and insects could have played some role in the evolution of the virus, as Thomas Monath of the Harvard School of Public Health has proposed. Monath postulated that a nonpathogenic virus in insects and/or plants might have mutated, giving rise to Ebola in bats.

….Sanders and his colleagues continue to study birds and their possible role in Ebola's evolution and transmission. They are also attempting to determine what other animals might be added to the already long list of species that the virus and related viruses could impact.

Well that was a tough read, and ewww. One hope we have is that as the virus mutates it will become less lethal. When it first began lethality was 90% and now it is 60% and imho many of those are from dehydration. The massive bleeding out that characterized this bug in the beginning is now more like a flu on steroids.

I gotta question about this Ebola. If it were to go 'Airborn', what protection methods are there?

I am finding it hard to think that a 'Resparitory' Mask would be the job because even with one, you still need to breathe. I was looking at some today and although they look like they could keep a lot of stuff out from you taking it in, i doubt they would stop an Airborn disease!

Gas Mask?

You'd need a tank full of clean air though right? What happens when the tank runs out?

Is there any other type of mask?

a reply to: soficrow

"If conditions continue without scale-up of interventions, cases will continue to double approximately every 20 days, and the number of cases in West Africa will rapidly reach extraordinary levels. However, the findings also indicate that the epidemic can be controlled," states the Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, released on Tuesday.

The report also noted that cases in Liberia are doubling every 15-20 days, while those in Sierra Leone and Guinea are doubling every 30 to 40 days. The outbreak has also spread to Nigeria and Senegal, but there have only been select few cases reported so far.

CDC Director Tom Frieden clarified during a press conference that the 1.4 million number is a "scenario" and not a projection, and does not take into account President BarackObama's announcement that close to 3,000 troops and medical personnel will be heading to West Africa to combat the disease.

link

Sounds like its slowing down a bit in the cleaner areas of africa...or so we are beeing led to believe

a reply to: TruthxIsxInxThexMist

Now there's a poser. I've always thought the n95 surgical mask did the trick (the kind you see Chinese and Japanese wearing on the streets) - but it's controversial. Some companies recommend respirators - say the mask is to protect the patient from the wearer during surgery, while respirators protect the wearer from inhaling aerosols. Hard to separate the sales pitch from the truth.

originally posted by: ATF1886
a reply to: soficrow

"If conditions continue without scale-up of interventions, cases will continue to double approximately every 20 days, and the number of cases in West Africa will rapidly reach extraordinary levels. However, the findings also indicate that the epidemic can be controlled," states the Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, released on Tuesday.

The report also noted that cases in Liberia are doubling every 15-20 days, while those in Sierra Leone and Guinea are doubling every 30 to 40 days. The outbreak has also spread to Nigeria and Senegal, but there have only been select few cases reported so far.

CDC Director Tom Frieden clarified during a press conference that the 1.4 million number is a "scenario" and not a projection, and does not take into account President BarackObama's announcement that close to 3,000 troops and medical personnel will be heading to West Africa to combat the disease.

link

Sounds like its slowing down a bit in the cleaner areas of africa...or so we are beeing led to believe

Uh huh. I'm not counting on that information. Wait and see.

a reply to: soficrow

Don't you wonder Sofi, how Ebola and HIV seems to come from the same source, there is a relationship between both diseases beside been linked to African Primates, both were found in primates but never crossed species,

Because I am sure that mother nature is very smart but humans are not, we have to see why both diseases are now infecting humans, before they were not, at least the variation of the diseases found in primates.

Is not doubt in my mind that this the works of testing and experimenting on diseases.

Then I find very offensive that people will blame African people because the spread of ebola and even HIV, when obviously is not the fault the common people or the way they live.

Remember also Sofi that ebola and HIV are not the only two diseases found in Africa that are deadly.

Those are just the two that have escaped the secret biological facilities africa has...a reply to: marg6043

a reply to: marg6043

HIV evolved from SIV and is believed to have made the jump to humans as early as the late 19th century. I’m sure Ebola has done the same thing, evolved from something else into being susceptible to humans. It is in the virus’s interest to mutate and become susceptible to different types of species. The earth has a pretty good grip on itself. As populations of a single species become too much for its environment to handle, pathogens help control that population. The bigger the population, the easier it is to spread due to simple population density. The more it spreads, the more chances it is given to mutate and spread to different species, or spread more easily. This happens to all animal population. Man has not created HIV or Ebola, these things happened to all species of animals. Man did not create these pathogens; it is just part of life on this earth.

a reply to: Richn777

While that is a good scenario and one that most people and scientist wants to hold to, I happen to differ, I believe that nature is much more intelligent than that, I believe that it was human intent in the cross species infections.

While still a conspiracy we can not deny that is been human intervention with testing in Africa in search for biological weapons.

www.bbc.co.uk...

Sierra Leone's President Ernest Bai Koroma has widened a quarantine to include another one million people in an attempt to curb the spread of Ebola.
Two eastern districts have already been isolated and the extension of the indefinite quarantine means more than a third of Sierra Leone's 6.1 million population now finds itself unable to move freely.

During Sierra Leone's three-day curfew, more than a million households were surveyed and 130 new cases discovered, the authorities say.

President Koroma said the move had been a success but had exposed "areas of greater challenges", which was why other areas were being quarantined.

Only people delivering essential services can enter and circulate within areas under quarantine.

DOH!!!

According to WHO, the situation nationally in Sierra Leone continues to deteriorate with a sharp increase in the number of newly reported cases in the capital, Freetown, and its neighbouring districts of Port Loko, Bombali, and Moyamba, which are now under quarantine.

Country Existing bed capacity Newly funded beds Extra beds required
SOURCE: WHO, 24 SEPTEMBER 2014
Guinea
180
0
40
Liberia
315
440
1,550
Sierra Leone
323
297
53

a reply to: marg6043

Source? for testing biological weapons in Africa? Not conducting research, they do research on every continent. Actual offensive bioweapons. And not Bioweapon defense, this day in age I would consider it irresponsible if the United States didn’t have an agency like USAMRIID.

And what does nature being intelligent have to do with anything? Nature is telling humans that their population is getting out of control and it’s time to thin the herd. Why do think viruses exist in the first place??

There is no conspiracy. Humans aren’t the cause of HIV or EBOLA. Show me one shred of truth to that.

I believe that it was human intent in the cross species infections.

What about the bird flu/swine flu? Are these cross species infections man made as well?

a reply to: Richn777

Seems clear to me that simple organisms like microbes and viruses adapt quickly to environmental change - then share their adaptations not just with each other, but also with more complex organisms. This can be painful at times but no one ever said evolution was easy.

a reply to: marg6043

Then I find very offensive that people will blame African people because the spread of ebola and even HIV, when obviously is not the fault the common people or the way they live.

Me too.

...I know there has been much research and unethical experimentation. At the same time, mother nature does just fine on her own, and microbes and viruses adapt, mutate and evolve in response to environmental change outside shiny labs. Sometimes the natural and unnatural mutants get together, and it's hard to tell which is which....

a reply to: soficrow

You've certanly made an impact on my thinking in regards to quarantine. Other than the obvious danger of spreading the disease to tgoe who don't have it were they to be locked up with those who do, there is also this aspect to consider:

 It is a canard sometimes used to justify authoritarian actions that the public responds to emergencies by losing control and panicking; 

How many times are we told that it's (whatever government is doing) for our own good and to protect us from ourselves?

Thing is, citizens are less likely to be the problem:

indeed it is the consensus of social scientists that people in emergency situations tend to be more cooperative and more generous toward others than they may normally be (Smith, 2001; Clarke, 2002). If anything, it is my reading of such experiences as the bomb attacks on London during World War II (Harrisson, 1989) that it is the poorly prepared and under-supported public officials who are most likely to act in unproductive and socially divisive ways during public emergencies.

"Poorly prepared and under-supported public officials" seem to be the only kind we have at present; just what kind of decisions does anyone think these people would make?

Chapter 2: Quarantine and Civil Liberties

Not exactly new conjecture, scientists and others have said that quarantines would help ebola spread faster for weeks.

Given the context, "'tis" and "evolving like crazy" could probably have been omitted but whatever. With this "new paradigm" that's being advocated for, what exactly is that? And what "chemical contaminations and pollution" are accelerating disease evolution for ebola? Like biochemical, aka virus, contamination, and bodies-in-the-streets sorta pollution?

At the least, the world needs a better public health plan for infectious diseases, and faster response protocols.

No crap..already been said by scientists and health/government officials in the area where this is actually happening.

---From top OP - Soficrows Post (cannot officially nest quotes as ATS does not allow that any more):

johnb, posted on Sep, 23 2014 @ 01:48 PM

….presumably rats and possibly wild dogs and any and all other carrion eaters, birds and insects will be feasting on some of these dead bodies if they are lying in the streets and villages and especially out in the bush.

If pigs, bats (and monkeys?) can catch/carry Ebola then presumably the chances of other animals and insects catching/carrying is massively increasing too - i wonder if anybody is keeping an eye out on the local wildlife and its effects on them….

I mentioned flies a couple of times - Sept. 4th and Sept 6th. Not sure if it registered then. Reposting for clarity and to affect clearer communication.

originally posted by: MarkJS
Someone said in a (non-ATS) forum that the reason that the medical personnel get infected is flies. A fly eats something contaminated, then sits on a person, or on a person's food. When that happens, it's all over folks. And you can't wear PPE 24/7, can you?

originally posted by: MarkJS

originally posted by: 1mpl3m3nt
I find it implausible that it spreads mainly by blood, urine, and semen. Doctor's and Healthcare workers don't just go touching other patients blood and urine, especially in these "ebola isolation hospitals" where they are taking precautions and still getting infected. I doubt all the nurses are having sex with Ebola patients in their off time.

I think its being spread into the air more easily then they are admitting.

OR it is being spread through sweat and it's absorbed through the skin just by touching something someone else touched, but even that likely wouldn't explain why so many healthcare workers are getting it, especially trained doctors.

Which makes CDC being deceptive on it's transmission route. IMO.

Somebody in a different forum was speculating that the reason that the medical personnel all got infected is because of flies. They noted that Africa has a major fly problem. So much so that waving them off is so second-nature that it's not even a conscious act.

A fly lands on something or somebody contaminated or a corpse. The fly eats whatever, then lands on a healthy person. In an instant, that formerly healthy person now has Ebola.

Sounds probable.

a reply to: jadedANDcynical

The OP focus was on the implications of Ebola being an animal-borne disease - the main point was that you can't quarantine wild animals. Great links tho, and I've written a fair amount on the human rights/civil liberties impacts of quarantine.

a reply to: Turq1

Not exactly new conjecture

No. Just basic science that everyone seems to forget. You can't quarantine wild animals and flying creatures.

[shakes head]

a reply to: MarkJS

I remember your posts and think there's merit. Thing is, researchers say they checked, and insects do not transmit Ebola. ....However, reminds me of some prion research where scientists found "filth flies" picked up infectious prions on their sticky bits and transmitted them to human fibroblasts.