Forecast for 2005: Another Busy Hurricane Season

First Tropical Storm of the season: Adrian

Looks like someone forgot to give Mother Nature a schedule....

Starting off with a bang, eh?

EDIT: Can't even find info about this in the usual places, as they aren't even set up for it yet!!! Nothing on weather.com, NOAA, etc. What BS???

[edit on 18-5-2005 by Gazrok]

i was disappointed too when i went looking for info on it yesterday. I do believe the Pacific Hurricane season officially starts Mid May, 15th I think, so they should have been ready.

is anyone in Florida planning to take advantage of the tax holiday? We're going to shop for generator this weekend, see if we can afford one at this time, then June 1st I'll go back and get it.

I do not know if the meterologist will actually be able to compentently predict the weather this year.
Here is my reasoning for this train of thought.
Dec. 26th Boxer day quake / Tsuami did more than casue damage and loss of life. According to most reports, it actually changed (yes minutely) the rotational period of the earth. It changed (again minutely) the shape of the world. etc.
There are now also reports that the Gulf Stream is weakening.
These are but a few of the reasons why I question their ability to predict the weather accurately to any degree as the models that they are using have not yet taken into account these changes.
I know from what the meterololgist here locally have said in the past that the weather is greatly affected by such things as the Gulf Stream etc.
So who knows?????

Originally posted by Gazrok

First Tropical Storm of the season: Adrian

Looks like someone forgot to give Mother Nature a schedule....

Starting off with a bang, eh?

EDIT: Can't even find info about this in the usual places, as they aren't even set up for it yet!!! Nothing on weather.com, NOAA, etc. What BS???

[edit on 18-5-2005 by Gazrok]

Source
THE OVERALL PATTERN IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. AN AREA
OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTER AND A WELL-DEFINED
CONVECTIVE BAND CONTINUES TO THE EAST OF THE CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS FAIR. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE BETWEEN 35 AND 45 KNOTS. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED TO 40 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. THE SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AND ADRIAN IS
MOVING OVER A WARM OCEAN OF 30 DEGREES CELSIUS OR HIGHER. THEN...
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT ADRIAN
COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL...AS SUGGESTED BY
THE GFDL. WEAKENING DUE TO THE HIGH TERRAIN AND HIGH SHEAR IS
EXPECTED THEREAFTER. THE FORECAST KEEPS ADRIAN AS A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION BEYOND 48 HOURS.

ADRIAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 045 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS...
EMBEDDED WITHIN A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD
MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS PATTERN IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ADRIAN SHOULD THEN
CONTINUE ON THE SAME GENERAL TRACK WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE
AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE GLOBAL MODEL
CONSENSUS. IN FACT...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING A
WEAKENED ADRIAN ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CENTRAL CUBA AND
THE BAHAMAS.

I've learned to not believe these forecasts so far away from landfall, looks like its still a wait and see deal. So many factors can strengthen/weaken these storms. Here's hoping for a u-turn.

newest outlook from Dr. William Gray: 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 4 major ones He had originally predicted 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major ones for 2005 atlantic season.

Outlook For Hurricane Season Worsens; Warming Water In Atlantic, Lack Of El Niño Creates Foreboding Forecast
Gray blames the increase in storms on the lack of El Niño conditions and the early warming of the Atlantic. The waters off the coast are already warmer than last year at the same time.

"Conditions in the Atlantic are very favorable for an active hurricane season," Gray said.

The absence of an El Nño condition is considered to be an extremely important factor. El Niño is created when there are cooler-than-normal surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific. El Niño then creates a west-to-east wind flow across the southern United States that tends to shear the strength out of Atlantic storms. Without El Niño, there is little to weaken hurricanes as they head west toward Florida and the southern United States.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration head Conrad Lautenbacher Jr. agrees with Gray, and says the Atlantic will have 12 to 15 tropical storms, seven to nine of them becoming hurricanes. He said three to five of those hurricanes will be major storms, with sustained winds of at least 111 mph.

I won't be doing this for every tropical depression, but I think the first one of the Atlantic Season should be noted.

Tropical Depression One Public Advisory

maybe a tropical storm at the most if it develops, and it doesn't look like it is coming my way (south florida).

guess I was right, forecasters now saying tropical storm in about 24 hours, if it does become a tropical storm, the name will be Arlene.

Tropical depression forms in Caribbean, Cuba issues storm watch


[edit on 6-8-2005 by worldwatcher]

First official tropical storm of 2005 in the Atlantic.

Arlene has been upgraded to a storm, headed for the panhandle of Florida the meteorologist on CNN said.

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

000
WTNT31 KNHC 091146
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT THU JUN 09 2005

...SHIP REPORT INDICATES TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE HAS BECOME TROPICAL
STORM ARLENE...THE FIRST TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2005 SEASON...

I just heard Florida is on the nasty wet side of TS Arlene, so that means more rain for us. It has rained at some point of the day everyday since June 1st here in Broward County, not as bad as the west coast though, I think they had much more rain than us.

btw what's that theory about the more rainier it is, the less chance of a direct hit from a hurricane? anyone ever hear of that?

lucky me, I'm under a tornado watch till 11pm tonight and a flood watch till tomorrow evening. Right now on the east coast of florida, broward county its been nasty all day, on and off light rain, a few heavier quick moving showers and winds around 20-25mph. yuck!!

as for Tropical Storm Arlene, possible strengthening to a minimal Cat 1 is possible before landfall, but all the nasty stuff is still to the north and east of the center of circulation.

Originally posted by worldwatcher
btw what's that theory about the more rainier it is, the less chance of a direct hit from a hurricane? anyone ever hear of that?

I've heard that, it's not necessarily true though.

I'll try to look up the orgins of that, I believe people said that because of the position of the Brumda high in a given year (and I've only heard people say that about Florida, not in general).

I am rapidly losing faith in the NHC. The 1am intermediate advisory upgraded Arlene to 70mph. I pulled up the satellite image and the storm is pathetic looking. The convention around the center is all but gone. What convection there is in about a 200 mile radius is weak. Looking at this system I'd peg it to be a minimal tropical storm with a chance of downgrading to a tropical depression.

The NHC is making it clear their measurements are meaningless. This all started after Andrew when they changed the windspeed measurements. They shave off a smaller percentage from the flight level winds to come up with a surface level wind. Before Andrew you could expect sustained winds along the coast at landfall to be about what was reported as the maximum sustained winds. This is no longer the case. Note the storms last year. The best you got were occasional wind gusts close to what was listed as the maximum sustained winds. In a hurricane you can pretty much shave off 15 mph from what the NHC gives you to get the real strength. And they'll upgrade just about any nasty looking system.

In my opinion the NHC has jeopardized the integrity of the data collection and reporting. Gone are the days of solid forecasters like Dr. Frank.

Here is some evidence to support my claim about the NHC. At 10pm CDT the storm was located at 27.1N, 86.1W. The advisory had the storm with 70mph maximum sustained winds and a pressure of 989mb (29.21). At 10pm CDT this storm was practically sitting on top of buoy 42003 (buoy located 26.0N, 85.5W). The buoy reported a pressure of 29.54 inches. The lowest pressure in the few hours preceeding was 29.44 . Considering the storm center went right over this buoy I think its safe to say the pressure isn't 29.21. And the wind speeds reported by this buoy don't support what the NHC reports either. Maximum winds reported by this buoy in the past several hours is 29.1kts sustained and 36.9kt gust. The top wind gust couldn't even hit 41.0mph. Where are the great 70mph winds?

You can view the buoy observations here...

www.ndbc.noaa.gov...