Originally posted by Gazrok
First Tropical Storm of the season: Adrian
Looks like someone forgot to give Mother Nature a schedule....
Starting off with a bang, eh?
EDIT: Can't even find info about this in the usual places, as they aren't even set up for it yet!!! Nothing on weather.com, NOAA, etc. What BS???
[edit on 18-5-2005 by Gazrok]
Source
THE OVERALL PATTERN IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. AN AREA
OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTER AND A WELL-DEFINED
CONVECTIVE BAND CONTINUES TO THE EAST OF THE CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS FAIR. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE BETWEEN 35 AND 45 KNOTS. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED TO 40 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. THE SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AND ADRIAN IS
MOVING OVER A WARM OCEAN OF 30 DEGREES CELSIUS OR HIGHER. THEN...
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT ADRIAN
COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL...AS SUGGESTED BY
THE GFDL. WEAKENING DUE TO THE HIGH TERRAIN AND HIGH SHEAR IS
EXPECTED THEREAFTER. THE FORECAST KEEPS ADRIAN AS A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION BEYOND 48 HOURS.
ADRIAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 045 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS...
EMBEDDED WITHIN A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD
MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS PATTERN IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ADRIAN SHOULD THEN
CONTINUE ON THE SAME GENERAL TRACK WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE
AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE GLOBAL MODEL
CONSENSUS. IN FACT...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING A
WEAKENED ADRIAN ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CENTRAL CUBA AND
THE BAHAMAS.
Outlook For Hurricane Season Worsens; Warming Water In Atlantic, Lack Of El Niño Creates Foreboding Forecast
Gray blames the increase in storms on the lack of El Niño conditions and the early warming of the Atlantic. The waters off the coast are already warmer than last year at the same time.
"Conditions in the Atlantic are very favorable for an active hurricane season," Gray said.
The absence of an El Nño condition is considered to be an extremely important factor. El Niño is created when there are cooler-than-normal surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific. El Niño then creates a west-to-east wind flow across the southern United States that tends to shear the strength out of Atlantic storms. Without El Niño, there is little to weaken hurricanes as they head west toward Florida and the southern United States.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration head Conrad Lautenbacher Jr. agrees with Gray, and says the Atlantic will have 12 to 15 tropical storms, seven to nine of them becoming hurricanes. He said three to five of those hurricanes will be major storms, with sustained winds of at least 111 mph.
