Forecast for 2005: Another Busy Hurricane Season

Top forecaster predicts 11 named storms next year, of which 6 should become hurricanes. Three of these should become major hurricanes.
This prediction is less than what happened this year, thank goodness.
I think Florida has had enough for awhile.

www.livescience.com...

On the heels of one of the most deadly hurricane seasons in memory, a top forecaster is calling for another busy year in the Atlantic basin for 2005.

"We foresee a slightly above-average hurricane season for the Atlantic basin in 2005," Colorado State University forecaster William Gray said Friday. "Also, an above-average probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is anticipated. We do not, however, expect anything close to the U.S. landfalling hurricane activity of 2004."

They got it wrong this year, so what makes ya think they are going to get it right so far in advance this time round....especially with an El Nino forming and knowone sure whether it will be a strong one or a softie!!! To much still to happen before an accurate model can be guessed at.

Originally posted by radiant_obsidian
To much still to happen before an accurate model can be guessed at.

And when those are known nature can easily flush those models down from toilet.

Like that two week predicted warm here in July... instead we got record class floods.

Personal feelings on this upcoming season: busy but mild (i.e. lots of little stuff/short lived systems)

Floridians Warned To Be Ready For Busy Hurricane Season

Federal Emergency Management Director Michael D. Brown put it more succinctly. People who don't prepare, he said, are "stupid."

Bush and Brown joined more than 2,900 emergency responders and others for the weeklong hurricane conference, whose record attendance reflected a renewed sense of urgency brought on by last year's storms and forecasters predicting another active hurricane season. Participants include representatives of 22 states and territories outside Florida.

Thirteen named storms and seven hurricanes are predicted during the six-month storm season, with a 73-percent chance that at least one major hurricane will make landfall in the United States this season, according to forecasters.

"Folks, we're in this active period, like it or not," said Max Mayfield, director of the National Hurricane Center.

Listen to them.. they're right.

We're getting close to June, I don't care if you're in Florida or not, last year's season obviously shows that hurricanes can affect multiple states and much further inland than the coast.

Now is the time to prepare, May/early June is the best time to buy that Coleman portable burner or stove, stock up on those cute little green propane tanks, buy masonry bits for your drill, start picking up plywood, it's always goes up in price as we get into the season and supplies run low, cut and prepare your shutters, seal them with a water sealer, you're good to go. As you do your grocery shopping, pick up one or two extra canned items, extra water, little by little, you'll have what you need and don't have to do the crazy rush. Prepare and everything will go smoothly.

I hate it when I leave entire words out of sentences


[edit on 5-12-2005 by worldwatcher]

posted by valkeryie:
I think Florida has had enough for awhile.

Yes we have, i'm in Orlando we had 4 of em in 6 weeks. The eye of one went through my neighborhood, and a tornado caused by the hurricane ripped the roof completely off!, 3 houses down from mine.....I've heard alot of "theory" with regards to increasing strength and frequency of storms, I pray they are wrong.

My second story windows are still in "storm mode" from last season, (since 3 hurricanes hit us pretty directly). I've gone through most of the food stores though, so the plan is to stock up the latter part of June (as not a particularly prone month).

We've got a lot of members in FL (I know Worldwatcher and I both are here also) so once again, ATS should have some first hand reporting should any come our way....

EDIT: Have to remember to get the guest room ready, as I sure used the hell out of that last time....

[edit on 12-5-2005 by Gazrok]

Rren

My mil in Tampa said they predicted 13 this year (2005)..did you hear the same????

Here's the link: hurricane.weathercenter.com...

Found some interesting stats here: Source

WRC’s Orbital Cyclone Strike Index [OCSI®] indicates the sections of the coast with the highest probability of a land falling tropical storm or hurricane in 2005 is the Texas coast and the west coast of Florida which both have a 70% chance of experiencing a tropical system this year. The section of the coast from Georgia to North Carolina has the second highest risk with a 60% chance of experiencing a land falling tropical storm or hurricane.
Below is the forecast for the 2005 Hurricane Season. The table not only gives the OCSI percent risk of landfalling storms along the North America Coast but also gives the percent risk based on the average number of landfalls years for a particular section using the entire record 1871 to 1995.
2005 OCSI FORECAST FOR THE ATLANTIC

COAST OCSI CLIMATOLOGY

Mexico 40% 40%

Texas 70% 51%

Louisiana to Alabama 50% 59%

West Florida 70% 71%

East Florida 30% 41%

Georgia to N. Carolina 60% 56%

East Coast of US 20% 36%

Gulf Oil Blocks 81% 88%

Bahamas 70%

In order to compare WRC’s Annual Hurricane Outlook to other seasonal forecasts, WRC meteorologists issue secondary predictors as shown in the table below.
Secondary 2005 Predictors from the OCSI:

Number of Storms : 10

Number of Hurricanes: 5

Number of Hurricane Days: 21

US Landfalls: 4

Cat 3 or Higher Storms: 50%

Got my fingers crossed.......anyone know if that works?


[edit on 12-5-2005 by Rren]

I'll keep mines crossed with you, just in case it does work.

70% chance for the west coast of Florida is not good. Those are the ones that usually cross the state and then hit somewhere further up the east coast. I'm on the east coast but even with a 30% chance I'm still not relieved.

We get them here in Delaware. Isabel, Flloyd, Henri, Ivan .... we get them.
We still have our Y2K water barrels so we have plenty of clean drinking
water. (Fresh water in old barrells) We also have our bug-out bags (3 day
emergency back packs) packed and ready at all times. Everyone should
have those. Candles, flashlights, batteries, extra dog food and people
food, asthma meds up to date, and the short wave. Not much else we
can do. Just makes sense to have everything ready ...

NEWS: As of June 1st thru June 12th , all hurricane supplies, batteries, flashlights, tarps, generators, etc will be tax free in the state of Florida. So far only exception I have heard of is plywood.
Tax break approved for hurricane supplies

Don't believe the tax break applies to food stuff though...anyone heard otherwise?

found some more

Other Untaxed Items
Here are the other hurricane supplies and the maximum value that will be exempt from sales taxes June 1-12, the first 12 days of hurricane season:
Portable radios: Including two-way and weatherband models, up to $20
Ground Anchor System: Or tie-down kit, up to $50
Gas or Diesel Fuel Tank: Up to $25
Source: House bill 6001

And no the tax break doesn't apply to food items.

[edit on 5-16-2005 by worldwatcher]

in addition to the above, I think this is the rest of the supplies covered.

Eligible Supplies: Flashlights-Top Value: $20; Portable Battery Powered Radios-Top Value: $50; Tarps- Top Value- $50; First Aid Kits- Top Value- $30; Tie-down Kits- Top Value- $50; Gas Cans- Top Value- $25; Batteries- Top Value- $30(except car and boat batteries); Coolers- Top Value- $30; Generators- Top Value- $750

NOAA also predicting above normal hurricane season
NOAA ISSUES 2005 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON OUTLOOK

May 16, 2005 — NOAA hurricane forecasters are predicting another above-normal hurricane season on the heels of last year's destructive and historic hurricane season. "NOAA's prediction for the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season is for 12 to15 tropical storms, with seven to nine becoming hurricanes, of which three to five could become major hurricanes," said retired Navy Vice Adm. Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Ph.D., undersecretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator at a news conference today in Bay St. Louis, Miss. "Forecaster confidence that this will be an active hurricane season is very high."

wouldn't it be a nice surprise if nothing happens and mother natures throws us all a curveball? If that happens, all these poor scientist would be dumbstruck and probably have rethink every all over again.

That is great news. Those folks in Florida need a tax break. I do think they should extend the dates though, not everyone can fit these supplies into the next two weeks budget.

First Tropical Storm of the season: Adrian




[edit on 5-17-2005 by worldwatcher]

Normally those don't cross over to the gulf and survive, but who knows.

I also live in Florida, in the Miami/Hialeah area. But I will probably move on June if I get offers for a job i applied for. i think i am going to get the job, but who knows, maybe the manager i talked to was lying to me. :/

BTW WW, who is that beautiful women you always have as avatar?

Are they models? Are they the same woman? or different women? Some seem to be the same womna, others seem to be different women. Anyways, are they married? ;P



[edit on 17-5-2005 by Muaddib]

LMAO I dread hurrican tracking maps! OMG it looks like plent of room for it to turn into florida! Anyone from TAMPA here? Maybe we can have a hurricane party if any come close to hitting LOL.

well I certainly hope Adrian doesn't survive over the Yucatan Peninsula. I'm ready but not really ready, I hope not to have to really worry about hurricanes hitting my part of florida until September.