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And when those are known nature can easily flush those models down from toilet.
Originally posted by radiant_obsidian
To much still to happen before an accurate model can be guessed at.
Federal Emergency Management Director Michael D. Brown put it more succinctly. People who don't prepare, he said, are "stupid."
Bush and Brown joined more than 2,900 emergency responders and others for the weeklong hurricane conference, whose record attendance reflected a renewed sense of urgency brought on by last year's storms and forecasters predicting another active hurricane season. Participants include representatives of 22 states and territories outside Florida.
Thirteen named storms and seven hurricanes are predicted during the six-month storm season, with a 73-percent chance that at least one major hurricane will make landfall in the United States this season, according to forecasters.
"Folks, we're in this active period, like it or not," said Max Mayfield, director of the National Hurricane Center.
posted by valkeryie:
I think Florida has had enough for awhile.
WRC’s Orbital Cyclone Strike Index [OCSI®] indicates the sections of the coast with the highest probability of a land falling tropical storm or hurricane in 2005 is the Texas coast and the west coast of Florida which both have a 70% chance of experiencing a tropical system this year. The section of the coast from Georgia to North Carolina has the second highest risk with a 60% chance of experiencing a land falling tropical storm or hurricane.
Below is the forecast for the 2005 Hurricane Season. The table not only gives the OCSI percent risk of landfalling storms along the North America Coast but also gives the percent risk based on the average number of landfalls years for a particular section using the entire record 1871 to 1995.
2005 OCSI FORECAST FOR THE ATLANTIC
COAST OCSI CLIMATOLOGY
Mexico 40% 40%
Texas 70% 51%
Louisiana to Alabama 50% 59%
West Florida 70% 71%
East Florida 30% 41%
Georgia to N. Carolina 60% 56%
East Coast of US 20% 36%
Gulf Oil Blocks 81% 88%
In order to compare WRC’s Annual Hurricane Outlook to other seasonal forecasts, WRC meteorologists issue secondary predictors as shown in the table below.
Secondary 2005 Predictors from the OCSI:
Number of Storms : 10
Number of Hurricanes: 5
Number of Hurricane Days: 21
US Landfalls: 4
Cat 3 or Higher Storms: 50%
Other Untaxed Items
Here are the other hurricane supplies and the maximum value that will be exempt from sales taxes June 1-12, the first 12 days of hurricane season:
Portable radios: Including two-way and weatherband models, up to $20
Ground Anchor System: Or tie-down kit, up to $50
Gas or Diesel Fuel Tank: Up to $25
Source: House bill 6001
Eligible Supplies: Flashlights-Top Value: $20; Portable Battery Powered Radios-Top Value: $50; Tarps- Top Value- $50; First Aid Kits- Top Value- $30; Tie-down Kits- Top Value- $50; Gas Cans- Top Value- $25; Batteries- Top Value- $30(except car and boat batteries); Coolers- Top Value- $30; Generators- Top Value- $750
May 16, 2005 — NOAA hurricane forecasters are predicting another above-normal hurricane season on the heels of last year's destructive and historic hurricane season. "NOAA's prediction for the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season is for 12 to15 tropical storms, with seven to nine becoming hurricanes, of which three to five could become major hurricanes," said retired Navy Vice Adm. Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Ph.D., undersecretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator at a news conference today in Bay St. Louis, Miss. "Forecaster confidence that this will be an active hurricane season is very high."