WHO: Ebola Spreads Exponentially in Liberia, Many More Cases Soon

From Reuters grim news just arrived:

Liberia, the country worst hit by West Africa's Ebola epidemic, should see thousands of new cases in coming weeks as the virus spreads exponentially, the World Health Organization (WHO) said on Monday.

In Liberia, the disease has already killed 1,089 people - more than half of all deaths reported since March in this regional epidemic.

"Transmission of the Ebola virus in Liberia is already intense and the number of new cases is increasing exponentially," the U.N. agency said in a statement. "The number of new cases is moving far faster than the capacity to manage them in Ebola-specific treatment centers."

Fourteen of Liberia's 15 counties have reported confirmed cases. As soon as a new Ebola treatment center is opened, it immediately overflows with patients.

"In Monrovia, taxis filled with entire families, of whom some members are thought to be infected with the Ebola virus, crisscross the city, searching for a treatment bed. There are none," it said.

Source

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Edited to add I just found a "situation assessment" of the Ebola situation in Liberia, on the WHO website here

It confirms the Reuters link and then some!

In Montserrado county, the team estimated that 1000 beds are urgently needed for the treatment of currently infected Ebola patients. At present only 240 beds are available, with an additional 260 beds either planned or in the process of being put in place. These estimates mean that only half of the urgent and immediate capacity needs could be met within the next few weeks and months.

So this is just 1 county of the 14 where Ebola cases are confirmed. Montserrado also includes Monrovia, the Liberian capital.

The county is home to more than one million people. The teeming West Point slum, which has no sanitation, little running water, and virtually no electrical supplies, is also located in Monrovia, and is adjacent to the city’s major market district.

They seem pretty much condemned to me, unless a miracle cure, lots of funding for health facilities and staff comes their way really quickly...

a reply to: negue

WHO estimates that 200 to 250 medical staff are needed to safely manage an Ebola treatment facility with 70 beds

Wow a 3 to 1 ratio.

How will they ever cope when it gets to 100,000

a reply to: joho99

I imagine it's the same in US and Europe, maybe more. A 4 to 1 ratio?

When it gets to 100,000? They can't deal with it now.

a reply to: negue

was just looking to see how many medical staff the NHS has.

In 2013 the NHS employed 147,087 doctors, 371,777 qualified nursing staff, 154,109 qualified scientific, therapeutic and technical staff and 36,360 managers.

Key statistics on the NHS


I should imagine the NHS would be overwhelmed with 100,000 cases unless they dropped everything else they are doing .

And i should imagine by 100,000 cases a lot of medical staff would have stopped going into work

originally posted by: joho99
a reply to: negue

was just looking to see how many medical staff the NHS has.

In 2013 the NHS employed 147,087 doctors, 371,777 qualified nursing staff, 154,109 qualified scientific, therapeutic and technical staff and 36,360 managers.

Key statistics on the NHS


I should imagine the NHS would be overwhelmed with 100,000 cases unless they dropped everything else they are doing .

It would not get that bad here. As some as 1 person with Ebola appears in the UK or any western country it would be jumped on with all resources at our governments disposal , that 1 person wont get a chance to spread it far.

a reply to: crazyewok

I have confidence that they can deal with 1 case no problem.

Not sure how they will deal with say 10 a day entering illegally

Oh, US and Europe can deal with it way better than Africa does, I'm sure of that. They're even confident enough to bring back their own infected citizens for treatment.

I meant "them", Liberia can't deal with the cases they have now, we won't have to wait till it reaches 100,000 to clearly see that.

originally posted by: joho99
a reply to: crazyewok

I have confidence that they can deal with 1 case no problem.

Not sure how they will deal with say 10 a day entering illegally

Think is you dont go from one day being in africa to the next being in europe of the USA illegaly

Its takes a couple of weeks travel.

Its not full proof but the majority if infected would likely fall ill enroute before they even got out of Africa.

a reply to: negue

Yes, this latest information/actions is concerning. Even more so, my post US federal air marshal attacked with syringe in Lagos airport adds to your two posts I linked them within mine.

Good post!

a reply to: crazyewok

I am not thinking about now i am thinking say 6 to 8 months down the line when the numbers have built up sufficiently

Italy and Greece already has like 4000 a weekend trying to enter illegally imagine what it will be like when a entire continent is fleeing for its life .

Plus you also have the 40% who survive but can transmit it in sperm for up to 8 weeks.

Not sure how many of the 40% are male.

originally posted by: joho99
a reply to: negue

WHO estimates that 200 to 250 medical staff are needed to safely manage an Ebola treatment facility with 70 beds

Wow a 3 to 1 ratio.

How will they ever cope when it gets to 100,000

Nurses work in shifts - 8 hours/day. Typical pattern is 6am to 2pm, 2pm to 10pm, and 10pm to 6am.
Sometime they have to do a double shifts or take a skip-skift where they work one shift, skip one and work another. Night shifts aren't too bad as there aren't any operations needing to be prepared for.

a reply to: negue

Excellent stuff. And kudos to you for finding WHO news reports. I keep looking for updated figures but they're not publishing any....

F&S&

More coverage....

WHO: Liberia Will See Thousands of New Ebola Cases

Currently, there are about 570 beds in Ebola treatment centers in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia, the hardest-hit countries, and the World Health Organization says nearly 1,000 more are needed, the vast majority of those in Liberia.

Doctors Without Borders welcomed both the American and British announcements, but warned even the latest surge in efforts may not be enough, saying the disease was moving "catastrophically through the population much faster than new facilities are being created."

And experts say it's not just beds, but that more international and local health workers that are needed. Doctors Without Borders also urged Washington to not simply set up clinics but also to staff them.

….In Liberia alone, 152 health care workers have been infected with Ebola and 79 have died, WHO said, noting that country had too few doctors and nurses even before the crisis.

"Every infection or death of a doctor or nurse depletes response capacity significantly," it said.

Ebola crisis: Liberia 'faces huge surge' says WHO

Ebola is spreading exponentially in Liberia, with thousands of new cases expected in the next three weeks, the World Health Organization (WHO) says.

……Organisations combating the outbreak needed to scale-up efforts "three-to-four fold", the WHO said.

It highlighted Liberia's Montserrado county, where 1,000 beds were needed for infected Ebola patients but only 240 were available, leading to people being turned away from treatment centres.

Transmission of the virus in Liberia was "already intense", and taxis being used to transport infected patients appeared to be "a hot source of potential virus transmission", the WHO said.

"As soon as a new Ebola treatment facility is opened, it immediately fills to overflowing with patients, pointing to a large but previously invisible caseload," it added.

"When patients are turned away... they have no choice but to return to their communities and homes, where they inevitably infect others."

The international response to the crisis has been stepped up, with the UK and US both promising to open new treatment centres in West Africa.

The British military said it would build a 50-bed centre near Freetown, the capital of Sierra Leone, while the US announced that it would send a 25-bed field hospital to Liberia at a cost of $22 million.

….Three countries - Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia - are at the heart of the Ebola outbreak, but Liberia is suffering the most by far. Why this is the case is not completely understood. Finding the answer will be a critical part of tackling the outbreak.

Variations in burial practice - which can include touching the body and eating a meal near it - are being investigated.

…..Liberia has the highest number of reported cases and deaths, with more than 1,000 casualties so far.

Ebola virus is surging in places where it was beaten back: experts

"Currently in Guinea, all the new cases, all the new epidemic, are linked to people that are coming back from Liberia or from Sierra Leone," said Marc Poncin, the emergency co-ordinator for Doctors Without Borders in Guinea.

……This time, the virus is travelling effortlessly across borders by plane, car and foot, shifting from forests to cities and springing up in clusters far from any previously known infections. Border closures, flight bans and mass quarantines have been ineffective.
"Everything we do is too small and too late," said Poncin. "We're always running after the epidemic."

…..Dr. Peter Piot, who co-discovered Ebola, said Ebola isn't striking in a "linear fashion" this time. It's hopping around, especially in Liberia, Guinea and Sierra Leone.

"The epidemic is now so vast and so extensive that one should consider that in the three (hardest-hit) countries, everybody is now at risk and it won't be over until the last case has survived and six weeks have passed," said Piot, who runs London's School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.

…."This is really the first epidemic of Ebola the world has ever known," Frieden said. "By epidemic what we mean is it's spreading widely through society, but not spreading through new ways according to everything we know. It's spreading from just two roots: people caring for other people in hospitals or homes, and unsafe burial practices where people may come in contact with body fluids of someone who has died from Ebola."

Getting it right in all places requires simultaneously imposing the same three measures anywhere Ebola appears, Poncin said: isolating the sick, tracing and monitoring everyone they have come into contact with, and ensuring infected bodies are buried safely.

This is going to go viral.....Africa is screwed....We should just quarantine it.............

a reply to: soficrow
There are 9 billion people on the planet. Your odds of getting ebola are 1 in 9 million. You have a better chance of getting struck by lightning or winning the lottery. Knowone is scared of the ebola virus on the planet except for those who are in close contact. I'm scared. I'm scared, I'm scared. Danger will robinson, Danger. Danger.

This thing is going to turn into the 80's scare of HIV. Don't go to work, you might get infected. Don't touch the money and pay bills with it, it might be infected. Don't go to school, you might get infected. Don't go grocery shopping, you might get infected. Don't breath the air, you might get infected. Don't go outside, the bugs and mosquito's that bite will get U infected. You cain't go outside or go to work to pay bills because you might get infected. Don't pay taxes, you might get infected going outside to pay bills. I wonder how The economy over there is affected because of this ebola thing. I bet the mayor locks himself in his room or is on permanent vavation somewhere else. Has the gov't over there put things on lock down ? This would be a sure sign of a problem. SO, since the gov't over there feel that no lockdown is
necessary, then there is no real problem to be concerned about. Our gov't has no lockdown on people from over there visiting here, so thus they think there is no problem to be worried about. do,do,do,do you have entered the ebola zone. Africa gets ebola alot and has been for a number of years back. They have had alot of cases now and then that pop up here and there then dissapear. Nothing to worry about. When it goes airborne and transmitts to animals also, then i will worry.

originally posted by: crazyewok

originally posted by: joho99
a reply to: crazyewok

I have confidence that they can deal with 1 case no problem.

Not sure how they will deal with say 10 a day entering illegally

Think is you dont go from one day being in africa to the next being in europe of the USA illegaly

Its takes a couple of weeks travel.

Its not full proof but the majority if infected would likely fall ill enroute before they even got out of Africa.

What you are putting forward as fact is actually personal truth. Currently the US and many other countries have floods of illegals across the borders. The US border might as well not even exist.


This disease is the real deal and people should have enough supplies to stay indoors for weeks if not months. If this really does go global the masses will panic the likes of which we have never seen before. It will shake the very foundations put in place.

originally posted by: stirling
This is going to go viral.....Africa is screwed....We should just quarantine it.............

Eventually this could very well happen as governments begin to panic under the weight of this disease. The people that live in the areas effected currently are so backwards they can not be helped. They live in a dream world of magic and brutality.


India is another place that could really have issues. When you poop in the same river you drink out of you are bound to have issues eventually.

a reply to: cloaked4u

When saying there's 9 billion of us, did you add ~2 billion ETs? www.worldometers.info...

Also, yes, this can be viewed as fear mongering, it's your opinion and I respect that. I've seen your (copy-pasted?) posts on other threads here. It could be viewed as fear mongering if the only source would be a shady website or no website at all. But when most news outlets report on this, also when your president says "if we take the right steps now, it's only going to last half a year. If we don't, it has the potential to spread beyond Africa", I wouldn't be so convinced it's just another avian flu scare.

“We're going to have to get US military assets just to set up, for example, isolation units and equipment there, to provide security for public health workers surging from around the world,” Mr. Obama told NBC's Meet the Press. “If we do that, then it's still going to be months before this problem is controllable in Africa.” But he added: “If we don't make that effort now, and this spreads not just through Africa but other parts of the world, there's the prospect then that the virus mutates. It becomes more easily transmittable. And then it could be a serious danger to the United States,” he said.

Source

originally posted by: cloaked4u
a reply to: soficrow
There are 9 billion people on the planet. Your odds of getting ebola are 1 in 9 million. You have a better chance of getting struck by lightning or winning the lottery. Knowone is scared of the ebola virus on the planet except for those who are in close contact. I'm scared. I'm scared, I'm scared. Danger will robinson, Danger. Danger.

lucky for the rest of us crazy isn't contagious.....if this virus makes it way out of africa you will wish you had the jupiter 1 to escape on

The USA might not be as prepared as we thought.

Homeland Security botched pandemic preparedness - U.S. report