The Making Of A Rogue State

In this thread I'm going to try and build a timeline of events which have transpired over the course of a few years. The beginning has it's initial formation during the Arab Spring, however, although many countries were involved in it, highlighting a few of them, Libya and Syria particularly, will help to form the narrative I'm trying to write. So let's begin...

On March 19, 2011, American and European allies began a bombing campaign in Libya to oust Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi. The campaign which lasted several months, ended in the demise and assassination of Qaddafi weeks later at the hand of opposition forces, who were waging a ground war following months of aerial bombardments by NATO forces.

During this period, weapons caches in and around Libya were left unchecked and abandoned. The benefit these weapons have had for extremist groups in waging a continued campaign of violence and destruction, has no boundaries.

After the death of Qaddafi, the loose weapons which fell into the hands of the opposition not only remained on the battlefield, but also began to trickle into Syria at the behest of Libya's National Transitional Council, which was established in Benghazi on March 25, 2011.

The newly formed governing body immediately dispatched it's leading commander, renowned Isamist leader, Abdulhakim Belhadj, head of the Tripoli Military Council, to meet with Free Syrian Army leaders in Istanbul and on the border with Turkey.

The influx of Libyan fighters onto the battlefield in Syria to join forces fighting to overthrow Bashar Al-Assad, the opposition group recognized by the United States and a month earlier internationally, is known as the free Syrian army or FSA.

However, this same group also received recognition by the United Nations. On the one hand the group is supported and funded by Saudi Arabia, who pays the wages for these men to fight, and on the other hand it's rejected and deemed a extremist group.

So the stalemate continues. As the Syrian state continues to decline so does it's wealth. The oil embargo imposed on Syria in the beginning of the onslaught and ensuing civil war, is crippling the infrastructure of the regime, this however has had little affect due to support and cash coming in from Russian assistance, including military advisers and intelligence gathering capabilities from Iran.

But, the game has just begun. In the makings is something more cynical and profound. Something surely sinister enough and awe inspiring to create a scenario for an allied military strike. This however, is not the case, "yet."

The outside support of the Syrian regime has helped to prop up the government and Assad's power. To mitigate this threat, and create an atmosphere where wealth distribution can possibly help opposition forces, the EU determined it would lift the embargo it placed on Syrian oil, and begin investing and assisting the rebels in hopes to win the war.

As the money began to flow to rebels within the country, a scramble by various extremists elements to control oil wells accelerated, a race Western backed moderates lost. In the mean time, warlords and extremist groups start consolidating power and filling the vacuum left behind. The big bucks allowed the formation of a unified strong state, openly defying and controlling large swathes of cross boarder land masses in Syria and Iraq, in a struggle to maintain control over smuggling routes into the black market in Turkey, and dominate on the ground to control oil fields and critical infrastructure.

Well I'm done for now. Finish second perhaps tomorrow.

a reply to: Daedal

In addition, the focus now is also in Eastern Europe and the slow build of troops and War Material to pressure those same Russians.

The recent NATO Summit has coined more terms in the media like Spear Head and Rapid Response Force.

The defensive "Desert Shield" in the period preceding the first Invasion of Iraq waaay back in the early 90's became a storm, once all the pieces were in place.

Its more a slow attrition than any one cataclysm. This tends to generate lethargy about the whole process on the part of the people on both sides. BUt the governments of Russia, China, Iran and others are watching. They are feeling the squeeze.

Whats amazing in my mind is that the perpetrators of this most dangerous game (in the West) entertain the notion that at some point, everyone they target will eventually just give in and come along peaceably.

This new phase is not about conquering vast tracks of desert dotted with a few oil wells.

The Superpowers in the Far East have their own red line and aren't bluffing.