New study finds 99.999 percent certainty humans are causing global warming

Firstly, I'm not a scientist, nor do I claim to understand a lot of the science behind this study. I'm hoping folks with more knowledge can help discern the validity of this.

Link

Published in the journal Climate Risk Management today, our research is the first to quantify the probability of historical changes in global temperatures and examines the links to greenhouse gas emissions using rigorous statistical techniques.


Our new CSIRO work provides an objective assessment linking global temperature increases to human activity, which points to a close to certain probability exceeding 99.999%.

Our work extends existing approaches undertaken internationally to detect climate change and attribute it to human or natural causes. The 2013 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report provided an expert consensus that:

It is extremely likely [defined as 95-100% certainty] that more than half of the observed increase in global average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010 was caused by the anthropogenic [human-caused] increase in greenhouse gas concentrations and other anthropogenic forcings together.

I've always maintained that Climate Change is a natural occurrence that can be influenced by humans, but nearly as much as some would like to believe. Maybe this will change my perspective.

Thoughts?

~Tenth

Thoughts?

a reply to: tothetenthpower

which points to a close to certain probability exceeding 99.999%.

Um....how does the probability EXCEED 99.999%?

Anyways, I said if global warming is real then I would highly suspect humans are to blame! What else could cause temperatures to go up when we are the only things on Earth polluting the air? I guess it would have to be confirmed it is from pollution as well for that to be true.

I don't know enough about it, but I think we need to rethink the ways we conduct ourselves while here on Earth or humans, as a species, will have a hard time continuing down the path we are on currently....We need someone with brains organizing the way things are done here, and currently we don't have anything or anyone even close to that status!

99.999% ??? 99% ?? 99.99% ...what the hey ,why not say 100% ..figures don't lie but lyers figure ...go figure :>)

originally posted by: Chrisfishenstein
a reply to: tothetenthpower

which points to a close to certain probability exceeding 99.999%.

Um....how does the probability EXCEED 99.999%?

Anyways, I said if global warming is real then I would highly suspect humans are to blame! What else could cause temperatures to go up when we are the only things on Earth polluting the air? I guess it would have to be confirmed it is from pollution as well for that to be true.

I don't know enough about it, but I think we need to rethink the ways we conduct ourselves while here on Earth or humans, as a species, will have a hard time continuing down the path we are on currently....We need someone with brains organizing the way things are done here, and currently we don't have anything or anyone even close to that status!

Al Gore is that you?


Because humans aren't the only things that polute the air...

And other things can cause the earth to warm.....like......the sun....thermal activity. Solar activity....

As much as we would like to think so. We aren't the most powerful force in our little corner of the solar system

I would think all the methane coming out of the arctic as well as forest fires and volcanoes could add to what is in our atmosphere that could contribute to some sort of a effect on the weather/climate .Oh and that big orange ball in the sky may just have some sort of a effect on the earth as well as the other planets . But like you I am not a scientist being paid to make such claims . a reply to: Chrisfishenstein

exceeding 99.999%

Might as well just say it's a certain 100% then.

Peace

originally posted by: ManBehindTheMask

originally posted by: Chrisfishenstein
a reply to: tothetenthpower

which points to a close to certain probability exceeding 99.999%.

Um....how does the probability EXCEED 99.999%?

Anyways, I said if global warming is real then I would highly suspect humans are to blame! What else could cause temperatures to go up when we are the only things on Earth polluting the air? I guess it would have to be confirmed it is from pollution as well for that to be true.

I don't know enough about it, but I think we need to rethink the ways we conduct ourselves while here on Earth or humans, as a species, will have a hard time continuing down the path we are on currently....We need someone with brains organizing the way things are done here, and currently we don't have anything or anyone even close to that status!

Because humans aren't the only things that polute the air...

And other things can cause the earth to warm.....like......the sun....thermal activity. Solar activity....

As much as we would like to think so. We aren't the most powerful force in our little corner of the solar system

I will quote my post above and quote it here for you...

I guess it would have to be confirmed it is from pollution as well for that to be true.

Now, maybe you can read a little about what would need proved before I can say it is humans causing this...

Once more

I guess it would have to be confirmed it is from pollution as well for that to be true.

I can do it again if needed....

a reply to: Chrisfishenstein

Because you stated this.


"What else could cause temperatures to go up when we are the only things on Earth polluting the air? "

Regardless if you think it's all pollution or not. The fact that you think were the only ones that pollute is what led me to my comments

I can post it again if you like. Thanks for the snarkiness

So glad we can have debated about climate change w out people getting ugly

a reply to: Chrisfishenstein

Anyways, I said if global warming is real then I would highly suspect humans are to blame! What else could cause temperatures to go up when we are the only things on Earth polluting the air?

Don't be so sure about that.


In my opinion, it's a natural occurrence that humans have very little if any effect on.

I do agree that many things need to be changed, pollution of natural resources is a big problem and it's only getting worse. Oceans being used as garbage dumps, rivers and lakes filled with mercury run off from coal power plants for example. If it's not dealt with now, Earth will become uninhabitable. But, that's another topic all it's own.

Here we go again ...

reply to: tothetenthpower

CSIRO has been criticised for a growing focus on making a profit


CSIRO Climate change censorship


CSIRO management bullies employees

I will not even give the link the time of day - because I know the study is flawed.

Until the day comes that they can explain why every planet in our solar system is heating up, and how humans are responsible - then I'll give credence to this type of study.

" New study finds 99.999 percent certainty humans are causing global warming "

well that seals the deal for me.

the whole thing is 100% a money scam.

had they concluded 98.888%, maybe i would have been convinced.

a reply to: MentorsRiddle

I suggest reading this because not all are heating up.

www.skepticalscience.com...

a reply to: Chrisfishenstein

We need someone with brains organizing the way things are done here, and currently we don't have anything or anyone even close to that status!

Wow. Someone with brains. Ok, I'll take your word for it. I'm sure you can determine who that someone is.

Right?

Will the someone who stole all the brains please come forward, organize the way things are done, and thereby tame the sun, volcanoes, and all other earthly functions?

I'd say 'my brain hurts', but I don't want to make anyone jealous….

# 278

Deny Ignorance, unless its something to do with man made climate change.....

originally posted by: boymonkey74
a reply to: MentorsRiddle

I suggest reading this because not all are heating up.

www.skepticalscience.com...

I suggest nobody read Skeptical Science.

It is a well-known, deeply biased site that is completely and totally skewed toward man-made global warming.

Go read the actual papers themselves instead of taking the word or writing of someone who pays lip service to anyone who supports his agenda.

Even the papers are biased, but at least you can read them yourself and come to your own conclusions.

I believe the 99.999% certainty that we cause global warming about as much as the claim that 97% of scientists agree that humans are the cause. Both belong in the same bucket of complete BS.

Love this little gem as evidence of my statement:

Our analysis showed that in the absence of human-caused greenhouse gas emissions, there would have been more than twice as many periods of short-term cooling than are found in the observed data.

So... that means that they are claiming that they can accurately predict that the planet would have cooled more often because it did so when humans weren't present? LOL LOL LOL

Sorry, but reading the paper and looking at the data, there is no F-ing way... this paper will be demolished in no time.

~Namaste

a reply to: tothetenthpower

Well, that does it!

Considering all living things on this planet are carbon based, and the answer to Climate change is a carbon tax, I guess all of us useless eaters should prepare for the "Logan's Run" lottery system?

originally posted by: LDragonFire
Deny Ignorance, unless its something to do with man made climate change.....

So because we don't just hop on board w everything we hear then we are ignorant?

Coming from a forum that's notorious for telling people not to believe everything they hear or read because the powerful in this world have an agenda?

A little counter intuitive don't you think?

I find it extremely ignorant to believe anything off hand that says they are 99.9999% sure of ANYTHING w out a bit of scrutiny