Battle For Strategic Mariupol Begins, NATO Vows To Do "Whatever It Takes"

a reply to: tsurfer2000h

Russia and the pro Russian rebels don't want a cease fire. What they want is to call it a ceasefire while in reality demanding Ukraine forces withdraw from the South / East of Ukraine.

Its the same game plan used for Crimea by Russia. Russia makes a demand and hopes the other side ignores it so they can justify further military action.

originally posted by: dragonridr
a reply to: Xcathdra


Well right now Poland is going to play a key role if fighting were to start between Nato and Russia. Russia has been trying to upgrade its Nuclear arsenal while Nato members have been boosting conventional armed forces. There is a reason for this Russia relies heavily on the mobile Topol-M missile systems but they are vulnerable to conventional strikes; their mobility is no longer a guarantee of concealment or protection. So if this were to go down your going to see an all out assault on Russian nuclear arsenal. It would be planned assault to occur all at once with the goal of knocking out at least 50 percent of there capabilities and rely on missile defense systems and also Russia will havea large failure rate of the nuclear arsenal. Saw one estimate as high as 25 percent of it nuclear force is still in disrapair from neglect. Wont happen however but i would say Russia will become uninhabitable. because most of the US arsenal would get through.

Russia cant survive a nuclear exchange where Nato countries would have survivors. But your still talking huge casualties and nuclear winter.I used to think Putin was smart enough to not play out this scenario, Lately watching his actions and words who knows i really think hes losing it. So when Ukraine started i wassaying nuclear war never happen, but now ill say not likely but Putin is showing to be unstable much like Hitler was towards the end of WW2 .

yeah, poland is going to play a key role.
in getting the first strike.

russia has nuclear missiles pointed at our cities. and you forget about one thing, missiles can be vulnerable to conventional strikes, until they launch them. as soon as they'll see a bunch of not-invisible-at-all polish fighters crossing their border, they'll launch them. nothing will stop those missiles from reaching polish cities and at that point poland won't be much of a threat, government will probably run away abroad, like they always did, and the country will be left in chaos.

and with the current state of our army, they can take poland without much of a problem after such attack.

some think i'm pro-russian. i am not, as one of our politicians said, i love russia, the further it is from our borders. i just think that poland should STFU when it comes to russia, because we're not nato's first line of defense - we're nato's buffer zone, destined to get our cities turned into wasteland when the shtf.

a reply to: jedi_hamster

Poland will be fine no matter what happens Russia wouldnt bother Nuking them. They need all those to get through the missile defense shield in the US. Strategically no reason to NUKE poland in fact fallout would land back in Russia.

originally posted by: dragonridr
a reply to: jedi_hamster

Poland will be fine no matter what happens Russia wouldnt bother Nuking them. They need all those to get through the missile defense shield in the US. Strategically no reason to NUKE poland in fact fallout would land back in Russia.

Russia first strikes the countries with the missile defense system to take it out.

Moscow confirms deployment of Iskander missiles on NATO borders

The Russian Defense Ministry has confirmed media reports on the deployment of short-range Iskander missiles in the country’s west, near its borders with the Baltic states and NATO members, saying that it does not violate international agreements.

German newspaper Bild wrote this weekend that Russia stationed several Iskander tactical ballistic missile systems - which are capable of carrying nuclear warheads - in its westernmost exclave of Kaliningrad, along the border with Baltic states. The paper said it obtained “secret satellite” images showing at least 10 Russian missiles close to the EU border, which were deployed over the past year.

rt.com...

a reply to: BornAgainAlien

Thats almost funny they used them in georgia as well but Georgia isnt NATO they wouldnt last a couple of minutes. And this is old news they had them in Lithuania this is the reason the Baltic states are requesting NATO to shift its anti ballistic missile shield. Currently its set to intercept from the middle east. Sothis is on the table at the upcoming NATO conference.

The US anti-ballistic defence systemm largely based in Romania, is aimed at protecting Europe from missiles that might come from rogue states in the Middle East. Reportedly, the proposal by Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia has been made as part of the preparations of the 4-5 September NATO summit in Cardiff, Wales.

The Polish-Baltic proposal would completely undermine the long-standing US position that the deployment of its anti-ballistic missile system is not aimed against Russia (see background).

However, the proponents of the idea have reportedly succeeded to put on the agenda before the summit the issue of new security measures for Poland and the Baltic states, such as increasing the number NATO reconnaissance flights at their eastern borders, and that those flights would not automatically terminate after one year, as it was planned initially.

See Russian actions is doing a major reset used to be Europe thought its only threat was the middle east. Well looks like now things have changed now Russia is considered a threat to Europe Putins just making friends all over.

a reply to: dragonridr

That was exactly one of the goals, to get Europe to buy into missile defense BS and spending more on military. The leaders know that (and have been bought), but they need to sell it to the public. US military industry needs to make more money and those European leaders get generously rewarded for it.

originally posted by: BornAgainAlien
a reply to: dragonridr

That was exactly one of the goals, to get Europe to buy into missile defense BS and spending more on military. The leaders know that (and have been bought), but they need to sell it to the public. US military industry needs to make more money and those European leaders get generously rewarded for it.

Ok so you think somehow Russia is in league with these European leaders? See the Russian response is key to your theory if Putin wasnt hostile to Europe than they wouldnt spend the money. So in your theory this requires Putin to put on this show so weapons can be sold to Europe???? Seems to me there is a big hole in your theory on that one. Putin buys alot of military equipment from europe because well lets face it Russian factories arent good at tech. So this means those people you assume are trying to sell to Europe only break even.

a reply to: dragonridr

I don`t think so...

It`s just we provoke Russia till it has to do something and after that use it as an excuse. It`s a typical tactic of "the elite," you do something to get a certain outcome.

Here`s about the buying of European leaders :

My Ph.D. dissertation chairman, who became a high Pentagon official assigned to wind down the Vietnam war, in answer to my question about how Washington gets Europeans to always do what Washington wants replied: “Money, we give them money.” “Foreign aid?” I asked. “No, we give the European political leaders bagfuls of money. They are for sale, We bought them. They report to us.” Perhaps this explains Tony Blair’s $50 million fortune one year out of office.

www.paulcraigroberts.org...

Looks like Ukraine managed to keep control of Mariupol. Reports of Ukrainian tanks moving into defensive areas of the city. I am surprised since hours before the ceasefire Russian / Pro Russian forces did their damdest to gain control of that and several other cities.

originally posted by: BornAgainAlien
a reply to: dragonridr

I don`t think so...

It`s just we provoke Russia till it has to do something and after that use it as an excuse. It`s a typical tactic of "the elite," you do something to get a certain outcome.

Here`s about the buying of European leaders :

My Ph.D. dissertation chairman, who became a high Pentagon official assigned to wind down the Vietnam war, in answer to my question about how Washington gets Europeans to always do what Washington wants replied: “Money, we give them money.” “Foreign aid?” I asked. “No, we give the European political leaders bagfuls of money. They are for sale, We bought them. They report to us.” Perhaps this explains Tony Blair’s $50 million fortune one year out of office.

www.paulcraigroberts.org...

So your now saying Putin is a stooge.And the west can pull his strings anytime they want. Make up your mind either Putin is easily played or hes in on it either way doesnt say much for Putin. See reality is Putin overplayed his hand. He thought he could cause Ukraine to stop their movement to the west and underestimated their resolve to do so. It amazes me sometimes Russia hasnt figured out how much hostility the old eastern bloc countries have for Russia. See if you have to force your friends to play with you eventually your friends find other people to play with to avoid the intimidation. But Putins old school KGB and they only understood threats and intimidation. Were moving into a new area now where you attempt to win hearts and minds. Even in Iraq as bad as people claim the US was who are they screaming to when asking for help did they ask Russia for air support? Even their neighbors in Iran no do you know why? Smple the US spent money rebuilding their country from power stations to schools and most Iraqie love Americans for the help in fact i have several friends still there from my stay and have a friend whos flying in for a wedding all because my time in Iraq.

Putins biggest blunder when this started instead of trying to intimidate and threaten when this first went down he could have come in like a hero. Sent advisers to help with the new government his people were already there in the SBU. We learned this when Ukraine had to purge its security forces. Imagine they would have been putting up statues of him and cheering instead he created a hostile country right on his front door. This is going to go down as the dumbest tactical move in History and will be shown as the reason for Russia's collapse. Its really sad to i have relatives there and i hate to see them go through this but at least they know its coming and trying to take precautions.

Nvm

Looks like the ceasefire is holding so that's something at least. Currently both sides appear to be getting ready for a prisoner exchange today.

(Reuters) - The peace roadmap, approved by envoys in Minsk on Friday, includes the exchange of prisoners-of-war. A separatist leader said this process would begin later on Saturday, though the Ukrainian side said details were still being worked out.

The two sides remain far apart on the future status of the rebel-held areas in eastern Ukraine and both residents and combatants said they did not expect the ceasefire to last long, but there were no reports of serious violations on Saturday.
Reuters..

I'm thinking it's going to be that second paragraph that's going to be really hard to work out. In fact if I was a gambler I'd be placing my money on it not working out and fighting resumes. I give the ceasefire 7 days at most (less probably.)

a reply to: Bassago

Im thinking the cease fire may be longer Ukraine is going to have to wait a week or two for their new toys. I think when NATO said will do what it takes means they are agreeing to the weapons Ukraine asked for. NATO denied their original request bit i think thats changed with direct Russian involvement.

a reply to: Bassago

To me the most laughable piece of info in that post is :

The Kremlin leader came under fire on Saturday from another source. Patriarch Filaret, head of Ukraine's Kiev-based Orthodox Church, said Putin had fallen under Satan's spell and bore personal responsibility for all the bloodshed.

I also read it on Dutch news sites today. I have never see them report anything like that about any Western leader if it was said by anyone. It just shows what a ridiculousness level of low MSM has reached nowadays.

Looks like my estimation for the ceasefire was wildly optimistic, seven days indeed. Oh well so much for that.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, numerous reports (from both sides) state that the long-awaited cease-fire in Ukraine is over. As RIA reports, the pro-Russian separatists noted Ukrainian special forces continued shelling towns and militia positions in the Donetsk region late Friday despite the ceasefire established hours before.

Several reporters in the strategic 'land-bridge' city of Mariupol claims to have seen flashes from explosions and heard powerful detonations, where tanks are moving rapidly towards the eastern checkpoint. France24 also reports the Ukraine military is now accusing rebels of violating the cease-fire. AP further confirms sustained explosions outside the city of Mariupol with journalists reporting "people dying of bullet wounds."
Source

a reply to: Bassago

That's right, shelling has started in Mariupol this evening. Guess this cease fire last barely one day.

The problem is seems was Kiev Junta had started mobilizing the airborne troops towards Mariupol which is violation of the cease fire agreement of "No redeployment of troops" in DPR and LPR.

Also Donetsk faced shelling last night from Junta forces and 5 civilians were killed as a result.

NAF should take Mariupol as soon and then move to Melitopol.

Declaration by western nations on giving precision weapons to Junta itself shows they West is more interested in "further fueling" the war and not defusing it. Nose poking habbits die hard.

One thing which never gets sanctioned, beautiful women.

Mrs. America 2015 to be held in Crimea

One of America's biggest beauty pageants, Mrs. America, will be held in Crimea next year. The scheduled contest, confirmed by both US and Russian organizers, has been condemned by another beauty pageant – Miss Ukrainian Diaspora.

The decision to hold the 39th Mrs. America pageant far beyond the country's borders – in the city of Sevastopol in Crimea – was announced at the contest's latest final in Tucson, Arizona.

The capital city of the Crimean peninsula, which in March voted to join Russia, will welcome two beauty pageants at once: Mrs. America 2015 will take place in conjunction with the national Mrs. World Russia 2015.

Link

Btw, reports are that fascist VB i.e. volunteer battalion Azov is the one that broke the cease fire. Azov is the VB that has Nazi symbols on its flags etc. There is another truly fascist VB recently formed called Stich and is sponsored by Svoboda party.

These Right Sector offshoots say that cease fire is between rebels and the Ukes Army. Their's are the volunteer gang type organizations which are not under the control of army HQs or even government etc. Hence they can go on with their business.

originally posted by: victor7
a reply to: Bassago

That's right, shelling has started in Mariupol this evening. Guess this cease fire last barely one day.

The problem is seems was Kiev Junta had started mobilizing the airborne troops towards Mariupol which is violation of the cease fire agreement of "No redeployment of troops" in DPR and LPR.

Also Donetsk faced shelling last night from Junta forces and 5 civilians were killed as a result.

NAF should take Mariupol as soon and then move to Melitopol.

Declaration by western nations on giving precision weapons to Junta itself shows they West is more interested in "further fueling" the war and not defusing it. Nose poking habbits die hard.

I didnt hear anything about airborne troops especially since Ukraine doesnt have but one airborne division where did you hear that. What happened according to people on the ground is Russian artillery hit a Ukrainian unit on the outskirts of Mariupol. Id like to see what you posted so far the only official word i seen is this.

Arsen Avakov, Ukraine’s interior minister, said on his Facebook page late Saturday that there had been “violations of the cease-fire from Russia,” with Grad rockets fired 16 times at Ukrainian positions “from Russian territory.” He said Ukrainian forces in Mariupol were being reinforced with additional troops, including the First Brigade of the National Guard.

Mariupol, 25 miles west of the Russian border, is at the maximum of the multiple rocket launcher’s typical range, and it was not clear whether Avakov was referring to an assault on the city.

There was no immediate response from Russia, but the Kremlin has in the past denied Ukrainian accusations that it is firing on Ukraine from its territory.

So if this is correct this cease fire was broken by grad rocket launchers from inside Russia. Which i have to admit is a good way to end the cease fire id Putin wants things to continue.

originally posted by: victor7
Btw, reports are that fascist VB i.e. volunteer battalion Azov is the one that broke the cease fire. Azov is the VB that has Nazi symbols on its flags etc. There is another truly fascist VB recently formed called Stich and is sponsored by Svoboda party.

These Right Sector offshoots say that cease fire is between rebels and the Ukes Army. Their's are the volunteer gang type organizations which are not under the control of army HQs or even government etc. Hence they can go on with their business.

Well it was claimed Taruta militia broke the cease fire problem is they were not near the area near the border where the Russian shelling started. so i find that scenario unlikely not to mention the fact they dont have artillery. So im reluctant to believe those tweets for now anyway. Now ive seen several posts from locals that talked about Ukrainian lines being shelled and showing the damage done to coastal battalions. Looks to me strategically Russia is trying to soften defenses on the coast for a possible invasion since sepratists were not in that area,