I just happened to see this and thought others would be interested. This interactive website calculates and graphically displays the relative
probability of Ebola spreading by air to many airports around the world from airports in West Africa:
2014 Ebola Outbreak: Worldwide Air Transportation
and Relative Import Risk
On first glance, it is not the easiest website to read and interpret, but it is extremely interesting. This should help you get started understanding
At the upper left, select the airport in Africa that would be the point of origin.
At the bottom of the graphic you can select a destination country if you want to limit the data that is shown graphically somewhat.
At the bottom of the page below that are buttons that pop up explanations of various details.
The output is an interactive graphic with tiers of colored bubbles or circles that represent destination or connecting airports. These are connected
by lines that represent likely spreading routes from airport to airport.
The bubbles/circles are not laid out on a map, unfortunately. But the color of the bubbles/circles are color coded to represent geographic areas of
the world and the list of countries below the graphic are color coded the same. Hover over any bubble/circle and you will see the name of the airport
it represents and a lot of data, of which the primary concern to most will likely be the Relative Import Probability expressed as a percentage.
The authors crunched a lot of data to create this. There is a technical paper that goes into great depth about how they did the probability modeling
2014 Ebola Outbreak: Worldwide Air-Transportation, Relative Import Risk and Most Probable
The authors are:
Dirk Brockmann (Robert Koch-Institute, Berlin, Germany; Institute for Theoretical Biology, Berlin, Germany; and Northwestern Institute on Complex
Systems, Northwestern University, Evanston, USA)
Lars Schaade (Robert Koch-Institute, Berlin, Germany)
Luzie Verbeek (Robert Koch-Institute, Berlin, Germany)
I was originally going to post this in one of the other threads about Ebola, but I figured it would get lost amongst the posts, and it's too good of
a resource to get lost so quickly.