Five scientists sacrifice themselves to better understand Ebola.

No problem, was just wondering why you left.
Even when we cut down the lowest estimation (12mil) by 6, we still would have about 1 million deaths considering a death rate of about 50%. Of course this is not precise, but with this calculation, we are still far far away from the lowest estimation. Fear mongering or not, this is a huge number.

a reply to: GogoVicMorrow
This year... you may be right. Now it seems I´m the one disconnected, that´s right. But what about the numbers? You cant simply dismiss them. Explain them away if you can. In my latest post, btw, I already said that I´m aware that there is much fear mongering in the media. But at a certain point, and I think this point has been reached, we should simply stop from repeating this and take a look at new data. Ebola is high contagious and there is no cure. Influenza is curable to some point, if treated. For Ebola, like Nechash said, you can only treat symptoms. That´s a little difference.

a reply to: hopenotfeariswhatweneed

There was another Ebola thread that actually discussed this first.

The thread on the mutations. It covered two topics and talked about the 5 scientists, but IIRC there was more like 200 out there making this work happen, but could've just been 50.

a reply to: hopenotfeariswhatweneed

The original thread discussing the mutations of the virus and also the 5 researchers who died in the field.

Ebola Mutating: Sustained H2H Transmission

a reply to: verschickter


Incorrect. Ebola is NOT very contagious. It is highly infectious, but not very contagious.

This year and every year. The numbers are still very low and you have to actually come into contact with fluid ejected from an infected persons body. Unless it mutates into an airborne disease like the measles then not much to fear.

Read:
Basic Reproduction Number

a reply to: GogoVicMorrow
My god, I see, I better refrain from posting here. In German contagious and infectious both translates to "ansteckend". This means that you can contract it from something/someone. And in the case of infectious, it also means "infektös" and "ansteckend" at the same time, but I was not aware of that. This is not the first time here I stumble across the meanings so before I talk more bull# (unwittingly) I let it be. I will take my time reading your link but I think we can all agree that it´s better to leave discussion to people who have the vocabulary for this.

I apologize for the irritation.

a reply to: verschickter

I would think of infectious as how well it replicates in your body, evades the immune system, how much of you it infects. Contagious is how easily an infected person spreads it to another person. In the case of Ebola it's not that contagious.

a reply to: GogoVicMorrow

Seems to me the basic reproduction number for this new strain is based on some old info about the old strain, resulting in mistaken assumptions, and so, maybe not quite reliable. ....Are you sure it's a valid calculation?

a reply to: soficrow

I believe it is still accurate. Until they say it is spreading some way other than bodily fluids then I believe its the same number same level of contagion.

a reply to: GogoVicMorrow

There are other factors as well.

....The models are only as good as the data fed to them; up to three-quarters of Ebola cases may go unreported. The modelers are also assuming that key parameters, such as the virus’s incubation time, are the same as in earlier outbreaks. “We might be missing the boat and we have no signal to indicate that,” says Martin Meltzer of the U.S. Centers for Disease Prevention and Control in Atlanta.