Ebola Mutating: Sustained H2H Transmission

originally posted by: soficrow
All true - but the risk of doing nothing -or not enough- is way too high.

Indeed.

For those interested, I've updated the Ebola charts in the charts thread with the latest WHO numbers released September 12, 2014 (covering through August 7, 2014). They are split over 5 posts in the thread because there are so many now. Here is a link to the first of the 5 posts:

Updated Ebola Charts

a reply to: ikonoklast

Latest figures from who ARE : WHO Ebola Presser Friday Sept 12 4784 Cases 2400 Deaths
fluboard.rhizalabs.com...

How close to your charts are these latest figures ?

a reply to: Semicollegiate

You're not telling me anything I don't already know, in fact I was taking about that in my earliest posts and show how that is actually a very bad thing.

Lower mortality rate coupled with a highest transmission rate equals a harder outbreak to deal with as it will last longer, spread faster, and not be as responsive to treatment.

A point I made a few pages ago I think bears repeating, the more complex the DNA the viris interacts with, the greater the mutation rate. Now put that together with an exponential growth rate, and you tell me where are headed.

a reply to: 727Sky

The news has been reporting that the WHO said this in a press conference or speech somewhere, but the detailed numbers they released on Friday, September 12, 2014 obviously didn't cover the same dates. The detailed data they released on the 12th stated 4390 cases and 2226 deaths through September 7th.

It's a bit frustrating that the WHO announces more recent numbers in press conferences than they publish in their detailed updates, but the new numbers will probably be in an upcoming update.

a reply to: ikonoklast

The WHO obviously is behind on the paperwork, but still needs to work the campaign. The trick is to balance promoting hope while communicating urgency and dire need. Unfortunately, public health got outflanked by the military-industrial complex.

Have you seen this?

originally posted by: soficrow
a reply to: ikonoklast

The WHO obviously is behind on the paperwork, but still needs to work the campaign. The trick is to balance promoting hope while communicating urgency and dire need. Unfortunately, public health got outflanked by the military-industrial complex.

Have you seen this?

Yes, thanks. I did a comparison of the projections that MIDAS did for the US National Institutes of Health (NIH) and the US Department of Defense (DoD) on a logarithmic scale (so the curves are exponential lines) over in the charts thread:

The red lines represent their 3 different scenarios. The blue lines represent my most current projection scenarios for the same time frame from chart 4B and the green shaded area is the projection range for the same time period from my chart 4.

From: Comparison of MIDAS projections and my projections

I think you are right that WHO and the CDC just got 'outed' by the NIH and the DoD, since the New York Times article let it slip that the MIDAS study for the NIH and the DoD projects such a huge increase in cases by October 12, 2014 and hundreds of thousands of cases over the next 12 to 18 months. The NY Times article notes that the CDC declined comment...

a reply to: ikonoklast

When I said "public health got outflanked by the military-industrial complex" I meant the Big Boyz decided there was more profit to be made in war than in protecting public health.

originally posted by: soficrow
a reply to: ikonoklast

When I said "public health got outflanked by the military-industrial complex" I meant the Big Boyz decided there was more profit to be made in war than in protecting public health.

Oh... do you mean the military got the budget money and attention for the new war/'it's not a war it's a large anti-terrorism operation' against ISIS/ISIL/IS? Or do you mean you think the military wants to weaponize Ebola rather than treat it? Or both? Or something else?

The researchers, previously committed to secrecy and confidentiality - to profit, protecting Intellectual Property Rights and respecting corporate and military Confidentiality Agreements - now have released their sequencing information into the public domain as 'Open Access" scientific information. They are calling for the global scientific community to participate in crowd-sourcing

Perhaps this has been asked and answered: Why did this not happen in the beginning of the spread of Ebola?

This should have taken place when the doctor and nurse were infected and flown to Emory....

I'm not sure what we can do to help hopefully at this point. Maybe we can come up with a preventive mesure or figure out how to shut this thing down!

Psx

originally posted by: ikonoklast

originally posted by: soficrow
a reply to: ikonoklast

When I said "public health got outflanked by the military-industrial complex" I meant the Big Boyz decided there was more profit to be made in war than in protecting public health.

Oh... do you mean the military got the budget money and attention for the new war/'it's not a war it's a large anti-terrorism operation' against ISIS/ISIL/IS? Or do you mean you think the military wants to weaponize Ebola rather than treat it? Or both? Or something else?

The military got the budget money and attention for the new war that's not a war.

....Not that strategies don't overlap, dovetail and/or mesh with opportunities.

My boy Sofi this situation is spinning out of control my friend lets be realistic it was set up as a test run that has back fired as a nuke... Now I am not a Pessimistic person but reality of life is that we need to brace for impact

investmentwatchblog.com..." target="_blank" class="postlink" rel="nofollow">http...://investmentwatchblog.com/breaking-us-state-dept-orders-160000-hazmat-suits-for-ebola/

http://______beforeitsnews/survival/2014/08/us-ebola-fema-camps-fema-coffins-ebola-exec-order-massive-drills-its-beginning-to-add-up-2533566 .html



a reply to: soficrow

originally posted by: ATF1886
My boy Sofi this situation is spinning out of control my friend lets be realistic it was set up as a test run that has back fired as a nuke... Now I am not a Pessimistic person but reality of life is that we need to brace for impact

investmentwatchblog.com..." target="_blank" class="postlink" rel="nofollow">http...://investmentwatchblog.com/breaking-us-state-dept-orders-160000-hazmat-suits-for-ebola/

http://______beforeitsnews/survival/2014/08/us-ebola-fema-camps-fema-coffins-ebola-exec-order-massive-drills-its-beginning-to-add-up-2533566 .html



a reply to: soficrow

Soficrow is female and both your links are jacked up. Inoperable. Nada. Not that BIN is reputable anyhow, but I do find it interesting to hop on over there from time to time.

a reply to: ATF1886

Sorry friend, can't open your links. Can you fix?

Your girl, sofi

Wow embarrassed to the fullest im Sorry MAAM wont happen again wheres the blushing emoction ahhhhh
investmentwatchblog.com..." target="_blank" class="postlink" rel="nofollow">http:// investmentwatchblog.com...
www.dailymail.co.uk... C-experts.html" target="_blank" class="postlink" rel="nofollow">http:// www.dailymail.co.uk... C-experts.html
reply to: soficrow
______beforeitsnews/survival/2014/08/us-ebola-fema-camps-fema-coffins-ebola-exec-order-massive-drills-its-beginning-to-add-up-2533566.html

Srry about last link you are goin to have to copy an paste it link wont work and if you click 2nd blue links on first two articles it works i do most of my posting from a cell phone...

a reply to: soficrow

A virus mutating can be a double edged sword.

They regularly mutate, sometimes a given mutation will make a relatively benign virus more dangerous to us, sometimes a single mutation will make a dangerous virus less dangerous to us and visa-versa.

It's the not knowing which way the mutations will go that's the problem.

a reply to: MysterX

Yes - "successful" diseases do not kill their hosts - and rapid death is NOT the worst outcome for the host. Long term chronic, debilitating illness resulting from an exposure is worse.

a reply to: ikonoklast

So the latest news says Ebola could become endemic and also, infect up to 1.4 million by January. Thing is, all the predictions are based exclusively on human-to-human transmission - but Ebola is an animal borne disease. What happens when the new Ebola mutations start bouncing back and forth between humans and various infected animals? Quarantine won't work on wild animals and migratory bats. Check out the range of the fruit bat that carries Ebola, outlined in the map below.

posted on Aug, 30 2014 @ 09:27 AM

Even without airborne transmission, this Ebola is getting around just fine. And it's mutating more quickly now... Our best defence is to stop it in West Africa. ASAP. Else we could be dealing with what? A seasonal Ebola-flu?

a reply to: ThePublicEnemyNo1

I told you!

a reply to: Semicollegiate

Yeah....well ummmm....how do you feel about that now. Do you still "think" the same"?

I certainly hope not.

a reply to: new_here

I just wanted to touch base with you again. You're a college student...yes, or you live near a college? I have two daughters who are college students. One here in California...Fresno, California and one in Philadelphia...Temple University. I am very fearful for both of them. All I can do as their Mom is prepare them for the worse. Not the maybe's or if's....but what is happening...what is taking place currently and it does not look good. You heard about Newark, New Jersey today 10/04/2014? I have a daughter who was in the Cherry Hill, NJ mall today.

My daughter that is in Philly, withdrew from school...and thank the universe. My daughter that's in Fresno, California is on her way back from a sorority conference being held in Seattle, WA. She's committing her last semester to her Masters and she's done with her studies. She won't take my advice and put her semester off....because she's too close to finishing. I wish she would leave.

However, all I can do as an extremely well educated person (won't say my field of study) is to tell them both to be safe and cover up everywhere they go. This is a very serious situation the entire planet is involved in and we have to get thru this together.

We have to be "Watchful".