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Continued slow weakening is expected in the short term due to gradually decreasing sea surface temperatures and the possibility of the current eyewall replacement evolving further. Even though the vertical shear is forecast to be light, Marie will be crossing the 26 deg C isotherm in 12-18 hours and should reach sub-24 deg C waters by 48 hours. With the thermodynamic environment worsening so quickly, near-rapid weakening is likely after about 24 hours until the cyclone becomes post-tropical by day 3. The cyclone will then continue to spin down over even cooler waters, but the remnant circulation could linger beyond the end of the forecast period. The intensity forecast has been lowered a bit relative to the previous one due mostly to the greater rate of weakening observed since the last advisory.
The National Weather Service has issued a high surf advisory for today through Friday, with large surf, strong rip currents and sets as high as 15 feet.
The wells will produce large surf, strong rip currents and strong longshore currents this afternoon through Thursday, and minor coastal flooding and beach erosion also are possible.
Surf of 8 to 10 feet will begin at some beaches, “mainly in Northern Orange County,” on Tuesday, becoming more widespread Tuesday night and Wednesday across Orange County, the advisory said.
Occasional sets at some beaches could be 12 to 15 feet, the advisory said. The southerly swell will fade Wednesday Night and Thursday but Orange County surf will continue above 7 feet through Thursday, the advisory said.