Before I answer deliverer I have a quick and easy reply for SEP. I disagree with your statement that we are not talking about stopping an Israeli
advance. Israel has a strong interest in maintaining the strength and influence of their American friends in the region, and the mission I am
proposing for Israel is so short and specific that it could be completed before there was any opportunity for public opinion to shift against it.
Unless the enemy can prevent Israeli tanks and artillery from moving through Syria and into Iraq, they can not stop Israeli reinforcements from
helping Americans hold the line or at least make an orderly retreat into friendly territory (Turkey or Israel).
Originally posted by Disturbed Deliverer
What exactly is the end of Active Service? Is that the end of their total contract?
End of active service is the end of the 4 years during which you are a 24/7 professional serviceman. After EAS you still have a contractual obligation
to 4 years of inactive reserve status, which is just like being a civilian except that if there were an emergency you could be recalled. The problem
lies in defining the emergency. The situation in Iraq is no longer vital to national security, and in my humble opinion that makes the current
stoplosses an abuse of the inactive reserve.
I know I am treading on somewhat controversial ground here but for the most part my opinion is that if you can't find enough people willing to fight
for something then let it die. This is especially true in matters not concerning national security, but in a purely intellectual sense you could
extend it to all wars. Most nations are populated in the millions or tens of millions. Most armies number in the hundreds of thousands or millions. I
submit to you that if not even 10% of a population is willing to fight for their freedom, they should be allowed to go ahead and lose it.
The people have tried to overthrow this radical minority multiple times in Iraq. Saddam simply had modern military weapons at his disposal.
Well, this is their chance. They've got a hell of an ally behind them right now and if they really want a revolution against the tyrany of this
minority then they had better start assembling their army right now while the US is there to train and equip them. We can't babysit these people
forever.
America has a far higher GDP per capita then any European nation. Most of our poor states beat out Europe with their socialist policies.
In a capitalist nation its actually better to pay workers more simply because they are the consumers. If they have no money, its no good making the
products in the first place.
I'm not really arguing because as I have already admitted I dont know. That being said, if you are a net-exporting nation you dont need your people
to have high incomes, or even jobs for that matter. All that really matters for an exporting nation is that you can produce as much as you could
possibly sell, right? Since China has nice weak (intentionally undervalued) currency that allows them to export like nuts, this works for them.
I'm talking about serious oil problems by about 2015, which is certainly possible. China is in desperate need for any energy they can get.
That means grabbing for existing sources, and not inventing new technologies. China isn't going to have any alternatives, and America controls the
major oil reserves with a powerful military. We could keep it for ourself, and force the compliance of many nations.
I really agree with you to a certain extent. by 2020, maybe even 2015, we are definately going to be hurting because of high oil prices (and this will
probably cause some serious inflation for those still buying tons of oil).
What I am saying is that since China has a booming economy and doesn't currently have a huge infrastructure to support they can plan accordingly.
China can build hydroelectric generators, wind farms, sterling motor based generators or whatever else they need. America on the other hand has a
great deal of infrastructure to support while making the change. If we just suddenly decide to pull the plug on oil-based systems in America it kills
our supply and puts people out of work, so we have to pay for the old and the new systems both. China doesn't have old systems though, so they can
focus on the future.
The main disagreement seems to be timetables. Peak Oil could very well cause serious problems a lot sooner then you think. It could also come a lot
later.
Why disagree? I am willing to agree with you that we will feel the pinch very early, but I dont think oil economies will completely self destruct
until 2030-2050. This is basically because once oil reaches a certain point most smaller nations wont be able to afford it and demand will tail off.
The larger nations will begin making the changeover which will reduce their demand as well. This means that as long as a nation makes a serious effort
to start getting off of oil right now, they can continue with a partial dependence on oil (although it will be expensive and unattractive in many
ways) until perhaps 2030.
I personally don't trust them. They've been selling weapons to the Chinese for years behind America's back. If the Chinese ever gave weapons
to Iran, some of it was probably only obtained thanks to contributions from Israel.
I am extremely interested in this. Could you give me a link so I could see about this? Israel has done a frighteningly good job equipping the stripped
down F-16s we sell them (among other things) and I find it very disconcerting if Israel were playing both sides against the middle. (I would not be
entirely surprised though. That's the name of the game for survival in the middle east- you have to play the superpowers off against eachother and
make both of them kiss your butt for favors. Thats how Iraq came to the brink of arab hegemony in the 70s before ruining it with the war on Iran. If
the super powers had not stabbed Iraq in the back by playing both sides of that war and Iraq had won, then Iraq would probably be on par with most of
Europe today in terms of their relationship with the US and their economy.
I'd doubt most nations would work with Israel as you say. Many of the governments are already unpopular. Egyptians don't seem to care for the
developing relationship with Israel. Jewish armies marching into an Islamic nation could very well inspire many Iranians to fight, as well as turn
Iraqis and other Muslims in the region.
I see that, and I felt uneasy about even bringing up such an idea, however in terms of the loyalties of governments, i believe those governments would
want to play ball if they could, even if it was only so they could live to oppose Israel another day. I could easily be wrong. Politics and culture
don't translate well from East to West. I'm sure I misunderstand their politics just as badly as Saddam misunderstood ours.
I just can't see the governments in the region risking it. During the Gulf War the Israelis never got to retaliate against Iraq after being attacked
because the Muslim nations would have taken offense. They couldn't give troops because they wouldn't have directly cooperated with Israel.
I think you have me there. On a side note, that always made me sad. I would really have liked to see America and Israel just kick the everlasting snot
out of the whole arab world in 1991. I'm sure that would have pleased the Russians none too much though, and there was still a USSR back then.
Sometimes I have to remind myself that international opinion used to have real and tangible consequences.