In response to the point about America being tempted to use tactical nuclear weapons: it means impeachment for the president who does it, probable
removal from the UN Security council and crippling international sanctions. Make no mistake, if America goes around nuking every 3rd world mudhole
that grows a backbone the world would be HAPPY to sell their resources to China instead of America, and China would be glad to pay for them, just to
take us down. I'm not saying G-dub won't do it; I'm saying he had better not do it.
In the end I have to agree that a nuclear deterrent is vital to Iranian success in this scenario, because Iran can not stave off conventional defeat
for more than 8-12 months without using nukes to force a peace agreement.
In response to the idea that America can do entirely without middle eastern oil: yes but still no.
1. If we went cold-turkey on Saudi oil and had to find new supplies, we would already be in a severe recession if not a depression by the time oil was
flowing at full supply again.
2. The nations that would still trade with us would have a local monopoly and could rape us till we bleed.
3. The nations that would still supply us may have the resources, but may not have the stability. You may or may not be aware of the political
problems, general strikes, and guerilla resistances which are common problems in much of South America.
4. It takes energy to make energy. Due to the Peak Oil situation America needs to begin consuming more energy in order to produce the new hardware to
run a non-oil based economy. New factories to build new types of vehicles, new power plants, new fuel depots for the new vehicles, and I'm sure I'm
missing plenty. For America to just break even on its energy supply is to ensure that we are behind the curve getting off of oil. The nations which
get off of oil early will become extremely wealthy. The ones which take too long will no longer be industrialized nations, or will become client
states to wealthier nations.
Now look Frosty, I'm not just being a jerk because thats how I am. I have reached a high boil because thats what happens to me when some kid watches
a few hours of "shock and awe" on TV and tries to tell me that I dont understand how war is waged. I love this stuff and I study compulsively. It
gets under my skin when somebody who doesn't know his stuff writes me off as if I were an idiot.
Troop transports are easy targets and slow movers. They can't be sent over Iranian air defenses and so airborne insertions will not be the
We can not violate Pakistani airspace. We need their permission like we had when we went of Afghanistan. To help ourselves to Pakistani territory
would be to slap China in the face, and then Iran would be the least of our problems.
I have also already told you that I know bombing will start immediately. It will be slow and will initially be able to come only from Italy, Diego
Gracia, etc. The number of aircraft available will be limited. Advanced airdefenses and aircraft provided to Iran by China could pose a serious
challenge to American airpower as well. Even a heavy bombing campaign for 3 months can't do even 10% of the total job, and this would NOT be a heavy
Heavy bombing can only come from Turkey, only after large amounts of aircraft and logistical support have been moved there, and that can only happen
after large ground forces have been emplaced to prevent Iran from over-running our airbases and saying "All of your bases are belong to us!".
This will take months, and even then bombing is only 10% of the solution. A ground invasion is the only way to win.
If the Iranian's were constantly attacking US forces with missiles (as you have said for over a months time), you think it would take 3-6 moths to
plan a counter to move the troops out of the way of the missiles and then begin Bombing? Is that what you are saying?
You seem to have a very hard time grasping the concept of deployment time. I have already explained to you that the deployment of groundtroops is
vital to any hostility, even for an intense airwar. It takes months to plan, make diplomatic arrangements, make logistical arrangements, activate
reservists, load equipment, ship equipment, reroute shipments in response to enemy harrassment, replace hardware destroyed in transit, and deploy a
full and combat ready force (they dont all get off of the same boat you know).
Afghanistan took 2 months even when we had cooperation of a bordering nation, the enemy posed no offensive threat, the enemy was in the midst of civil
war, and there was little or no diplomatic, economic, or military consequences for the action.
Iraq 1991 took 6 months even with the cooperation of several bordering nations, the participation of almost every military force in the region,
international agreement with out goal, and the relative weakness of the enemy, who had just finished fighting an 8 year war that ended in a draw, and
the easy terrain of the enemy nation.
Iran offers more challenging terrain, widespread international opposition to our actions, a more modernized military with support from an emerging
superpower, the ability to cut off oil supplies to America as we deploy, and the ability to make the first strike which would destroy a very large
portion of deployable US forces. Iran will also likely have nuclear weapons in this scenario. It would be no surprise at all if America took 6-8
months to commence hostilities, and it would be no surpise if intial attacks on Iran were defeated either.
The Iranian Navy doesn't have to "hold up" either. All they have to do is sneak one big shot in on us using civilian craft sailing under false
colors and packing cruise missiles. You say it wouldn't work- the Pentagon KNOWS that it works because General Van Ripper sank the entire US invasion
force in the wargames before Iraq. They could definately "hold up" in the Persian Gulf too. The Straight of Hormuz allows American submarines to be
kept out, landbased aircover keeps surface ships at a distance, and small but fast patrols boats can do almost everything that larger surface ships
[edit on 5-12-2004 by The Vagabond]