posted on Aug, 6 2007 @ 07:40 PM
A new scenario, that leaves out most new acquisitions of equipment and any new levels of support from China. It would have to be set a bit in the
future still, as Iran has not yet attained enough Uranium for one part of this, according to most estimates
D-60: Iran holds military exercises in the southern Zagros range based on a defense of that area against American forces. As part of the exercises
they build defensive positions there.
D-30: Iran detonates 200kg of 20% enriched Uranium in an underground nuclear test. The initial data suggests that Iran may have successfully detonated
a low yield nuclear device, although it won't take long for the US to figure out that they don't have a working weapon. Iran also fires a Fajr-3
over Saudi Arabia and into the Red Sea.
They claim to have proven that they have nuclear weapons and also to have proven that the Fajr-3 is stealth, as they have claimed in the past. The
media goes nuts with bad analysis of the data, even though the intelligence community has a good idea of what is going on.
Iran has used most of its Uranium stockpile.
President Bush orders a carrier scheduled to take over in the gulf to depart early and extends the tour of the carrier on station. He also orders two
Expeditionary Strike Groups into the area. Within 6 weeks, there will be two Carrier Strike Groups and 3 Expeditionary Strike Groups in the region.
D-28: Iran claims to have a few nuclear weapons and claims that this is sufficient defense for them. They are now willing to allow inspectors to
verify that they have ceased enrichment activities and are not developing any further weapons. In return they demand non-aggression treaties with the
US and Israel, a limit on US forces in the gulf region to be set at 100,000 and a ban on US Submarines, Destroyers, and Carriers passing the Strait of
D-21: Some analysts favor a counter offer of a non aggression pact, no SSBNs in the gulf, and a promise not to increase troop levels in Iraq.
President Bush rejects any deal out of hand, saying that if Iran allows inspections it has nothing to worry about, and he's not signing away his
authority to do what is 'best for America' otherwise.
D-20: Iran calls for 6 party talks between itself and the permanent members of the Security Council. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad makes a speech suggesting
that Bush is leading his country to armageddon despite being offered peace, and that congress should impeach him before it is too late.
D-14: With the deadline for war if they cannot force the United States to back down approaching, Iran begins calling up martyr brigades and moves more
troops to the West. The cat is now out of the bag as far as most most analysts are concerned- a war is coming.
The CSG and ESG already in the gulf are moved to Doha, out of the reach of Iran's land-based missile forces. Those enroute are ordered to take up
station in the Arabian Sea, out of Iran's reach. A third carrier is ordered into the Med off of Syria.
The disruption to training and deployment cycles cues the media that Bush may be about to invade Iran. Civilian circles still can't believe that Iran
might be contemplating a first strike.
American armored units in Iraq are moved to Basrah and prepared to make a limited invasion of Iran, with the goal of overrunning military bases and
then returning to Iraq if Iran takes a major hostile action.
Britain announces that it is withdrawing its forces and will not support a war against Iran.
D-7: Two additional ESGs are now on station. The additional carrier is still two weeks away because of the difficulties involved in deploying it
A steady escalation of terrorist attacks in Baghdad is correctly blamed on Iran.
US intelligence reports indicate extensive movement of Iranian missile forces and air defenses. They have lost track of 25% of these and believe that
Iran may have purchased intelligence on American surveillance from Russia.
50,000 Iranian civilians who have been selected as Martyrs gather in Abadan, near the Iraqi border, in a show of opposition to the "US
Iran claims that the very moment they are attacked, an army of 1 million civilians, armed with whatever they can arm themselves with, will confront
the invaders to weaken them for the military.
D-6: An additional wing of American attack aircraft arrives in Iraq, along with an additional infantry brigade which has been deployed early. All
units scheduled to cycle out of Iraq are placed on hold for a minimum of one month.
D-5: "The Congressional Consent Bill of 2008" is defeated in the House of Representatives. It would have forbidden President Bush to go to war with
Iran without first getting authorization from Congress.
D-4: President Bush tells reporters that "if Iran keeps it up, they're gonna have to be dealt with. Congress clearly sees that I'm right- they said
so just yesterday. They know that the Commander in Chief has the power to make war for a good reason, and if there's an emergency I'm gonna do
something about it."
A stream of Democrats go on the news claiming to clarify that their vote was not an authorization for war.
D-Day, 3 July 2008, 4 am local time, 2 July 8pm Washington, D.C. : Iranian Fast Attack Craft stream into the Persian Gulf and launch a missile
barrage at the carrier Strike Group in Doha. The missiles saturate the defenses of the carrier. Multiple impacts cause severe damage. A fire breaks
out on deck and the carrier goes down with all hands.
Retaliatory airstrikes from every American base within range are launched within the hour. The first wave destroys known air defenses and anti-ship
missiles. B-2s and F-117s target known nuclear facilities.
Iranian troops begin crossing the border, focusing entirely the area from Basrah to Um Qasr at first. American armor and artillery inflict heavy
losses on the Iranians. Helicopters stream into the area continuously from all over Iraq, busting tanks and delivering Marines to hold the best way
into or out of Iraq.
Iran deploys CS gas repeatedly to force the defenders into MOPP gear in the scorching Iraqi summer. Late in the day, a human wave attack breaches the
perimeter at Basrah. Fighting becomes street to street. American armor is concentrated outside of Basrah in an attempt to cut off the existing Iranian
force from reinforcement and retake the city.
D+1: Despite staggering losses of vehicles, the Iranians manage to overrun American fuel supplies and force our tanks to temporarily withdraw. By the
time Americans back home are waking up on the 4th of July, Basrah has fallen and over 100 American POWs are being paraded before cameras by the
Iranians. British troops who have not yet left Iraq are also captured. Britain declares war on Iran, as does Australia.
D+7: Um Qasr has fallen. Iranian morale is waning but still fair despite repeated sacrificial attacks against a meatgrinder of American armor,
artillery, and airpower which produces highly unfavorable kill ratios. Their commanders assure them that now they have done what is necessary by
capturing the South, and that now the Americans are cut off and will surrender.
America thinks otherwise. American airpower has denied the iranians a crossing of the Tigris anywhere North of Basrah, and the Iranians will not be
able to support their battle lines all the way to Nasiriyah. The American plan is to bleed the Iranians all the way to back to Nasiriyah, then counter
attack and surround them.
Meanwhile, in America, political tensions are reaching near-riot levels, with many Democrats claiming that Bush provoked the war, and Republicans more
angry than they have been since 9/11.
D+14: Advancing slowly in the face of repeated hit and fade attacks by the faster American forces, weary Iranian troops reach Nasiriyah. Their initial
attacks are repulsed.
Two more American carriers arrive in the region, having been taken off of other duties and rushed their with all haste.
Several American brigades are being assembled in Turkey for the invasion of Iran, and Kurds militias are preparing as well, in hopes of uniting
provinces in Iraq and Iran into an independent state after the war. America has secretly agreed with Turkey that Kurdish independence will not be
allowed, in order to ensure that Turkey fully cooperates with the US.
Large scale deployment of heavy reinforcements is still a minimum of two months from the theater. For the time being this war will be fought with
assets already in theater and significant reinforcements assets that can be moved by air.
D+21: Iran again begins the use of CS gas as reinforcements arrive outside Nasiriyah. President Bush initially favors an immediate reaction, but is
convinced by his cabinet only to issue an ultimatum, for fear that lethal chemicals will be used otherwise. American air assets are tasked with the
destruction of any and all major sources of dangerous industrial chemicals in Iran.
President Bush publically announces that Iran has 24 hours to cease the use of all chemical agents, lethal or non lethal, on the grounds that extended
exposure to CS gas is killing Iraqi civilians who have no masks. Failure to comply will result in the destruction of Tehran by nuclear weapons.
International outcry is severe and threats of war crimes charges are raised, but no nuclear weapons state raises its defense posture. Speaker of the
House Pelosi urges restraint and argues that a purely military target would be better, but does not mention the word impeachment.
Both of these things are an implicit acknowledgement that Bush will not be stopped.
D+22: The heaviest day of bombing since the war began virtually levels the city of Abadan and renders the city of Basrah virtually impassible.
Elements of the 1st Cavalry Division, 82nd Airborne, and 75th Ranger Batallion, and 2 Marine Expeditionary Units launch an air assault mission to
retake Basrah and seal the trap on the Iranians.
US Mechanized forces encircle the Iranian forces attacking Nasiriyah. Cut off from resupply and from precious water, they have little time.
An American B-2 drops a single dummy bomb on a meeting of Iran's Expediency Council as a reminder that our nuclear threat is serious.
Iran accepts the fact that it wont be able to turn the tide and refrains from using chemical weapons in the hopes that China won't let a major fuel
supplier be completely conquered. Unfortunately for them, Bush is going to let the chips fall where they may because the economic destruction of the
civilized world is starting to seem like it might have something to do with what his masters want.
To make a long story short, the Iranian force in the South is forced to surrender, about 2 months into the war an invasion is launched in the North.
The Iranians do a respectable job trying to defend the mountains but without the advantages postulated in previous scenarios, the issue is never in
An unwise occupation begins, and China begins selling off the dollar. With the economy already in bad shape, this probably triggers a depression and
results in the birth of a serious cold war with China.
In 2009 the new president will probably try to patch things up with China but things won't quite be the same and the economic damage will be done, so
we'll arrange a deal to steal a good amount of oil but we'll leave and hand over authority to the UN. There will be a big fight over who should pay
for everything and take responsibility for Iran. With the global economy in bad shape, nobody will and Iran becomes a failed state.
American casualties for the war are between 10,000 and 20,000, plus one aircraft carrier, while if Iran hadn't seized the initiative at the beginning
it could have been under 2,000.
Iranian military casualties are in the hundreds of thousands. Iranian civilian casualties are estimated at a quarter of a million. Iraqi civilian
casualties are similiarly staggering.
Massive unrest in Iraq instigated by the Shias during and after the war results in an all out civil war that America can't really address until after
they've finished off Iran, which means that Iraq is abandoned as well by the new president.
Iran has lost, but has America really won? We've been brought back into the real world- wars have consequences again. We're in huge economic
trouble, and the outlook is that everything from Pakistan to Iraq will probably look a lot like Afghanistan did in 2000 by the year 2020 (Pakistan is
in a lot of trouble all on its own).