Could Iran pull off a military upset against the US?

Originally posted by Ic weiner
well first of all i'd like to say that the consequences of israel or america bombing iran or attacking iran would be devastating and drastically changing everything around. the first thing that would happen is that insurgency in iraq afghanistan would increase and musharraf's weak government could possibly be overthrown along with egyptian government. now i know alot of people on here want to bad mouth iran as some sort of camel army but these people are trained determined and proffesional. iran has a 12 million man army believe it or not and every male is military trained+females fighting+children fighting=hell on earth. you will not be greeted as liberators no matter how much the young students hate ahmadenijad.

the troops in iraq would turn into basically hostages and probably exterminated there's also 25,000 americans in lebanon just to remind you. things would really go flip and china and russia would fund and train the arabs into a formidable force. some of you people think that the pashtuns will take the americans as friends or allies. you seem to forget that obl has a 60% aproval rating in this country. turkey could also likely not be overthrown. israel would be crushed like a bug though no doubt about it. what you'll see is the run being ran by 4 superpowers. the nau and britain who will probably will link up with south america or most likely run them over for land and resource. the india russian and chinese alliance. the caliphate and the european union. something directly out of george orwel''s 1984. no matter how you look at it iran will not and shall not be squashed like a bug. there's no possible way america can win an outright war against iran.

china clearly has interests in iran and would most likely train sell weapons too and supply the islamic world. this is a really big thing i wanna see how it turns out (not really but you get the drift)

Iran is under the controll of the "Illuminatii" haven't you seen the Iranian leader doing the "Satanic Horn Symbol" now I know why Iran doen't by enough Russian SAMS to realy defeat U.S. it's because they are being set up for NWO just like the rest of the world.

i don't know where you got that idear from but wherever it came from you need to take it back and put a stake in it's head

thank you

Originally posted by Ic weiner
i don't know where you got that idear from but wherever it came from you need to take it back and put a stake in it's head

thank you

Are you sure?
1. www.prisonplanet.com...
2. www.thetruthseeker.co.uk...

*disclaimer*i did not read the other 11 pages...only page one*/disclaimer*

was it mentioned of the denied american bases along the persian gulf and the Gulf of Oman?...i can tell you those bases are real and loaded with plenty of fighter aircraft, of all types....there are often 2-3 aircraft carriers right outside the GOO....and i can safely say we know the whereabouts of at least 95% of sam sites and other anti air weaponry.....

we know when they move one of their aircraft and where to and why for....

while they may cause massive damage initially....i seriously doubt it will take up to a year to resolve this....their best bet is to wait for their nuclear bomb....

All the Iranians would have to do is to not fall to the Americans and they would have achieved a military upset.

The nation is far larger than Iraq... and for the most part its population is unified; Persians and Shiia, who while they may not like the mullahs anymore, would rally behind them if we tried to attack or invade, and they have a strong military.... while we don't even want to be in Iraq anymore, much less invade anyone else... a reality that has not trickled up to the tin ears of bush minor and Cheney.

Add to that the fact that if we attacked or tried to invade Iran we would be sealing what the majority of the mid-eastern people already think; that this is a war against Islam and we would have handed Osama Bin Laden, Sunni or not the biggest recruitment ploy ever and we will have to deal with this for the next generation to come.

I was thinking and just about any surface ship in the gulf would be a reasonably easy target for advanced anti ship missiles that Iran may be hiding in the most unassuming looking boats. Or from the shore. I think Iran would have to be viciously attacked with cruise missiles to the point that it would be moderatly safe to bring in more and more air sorties against hardened targets in the iranin infastructure. The cruise missle attacks would have to be so horribly brutal that it psycologically breaks the enemy. Probably not an easy thing to do with Iranians. So I say keep most of the ships out of that gulf.

Use more and more subs to do the cruise missle thing and to nuetralize the Iranian navy. the gulf is shallow but the subs and UUV's have a better chance than a random surface ship. One of those Ohios retrofitted to cary 200 cruise missiles or something. Backed up with a few prowling 688's to keep it safe.

What to do with them attacking thereally soft underside of Iraq where a large section of our troops and equipment are held. No clue. Premtive overwhelming unprevoked strike against Iran? again not a good solution. A war with Iran would be very messy. We'd kick ass, but we'd get hit real hard. unless we have something new up our sleeve that will scare the iranian military into submission. Something terrifying like a deathstar or something.

Once again, why does everyone want to plop down our CBG in the Persian Gulf when you have numerous land Airbases there to handle that area. A CBG would stay in the more open Arabian Sea, they have plenty of reach to hit whatever targets they want, remember we used Carrier planes at the the start of the Afghan conflict.

As for Iran just having to "survive" to win a war with the US, I think that is incorrect. If it comes to full blown conflict, Iran will see it's heavy and military industries turned to rubble and will militarily be defanged. Their Airforce, Navy and missile systems will be destroyed and much of the armored force of the army will be taken out.

Their oil production capacity could be destroyed in a mere blink of an eye should we choose to, which would result in economic chaos among the citizens of Iran that would soon topple the government in Iran. Iran is a one product exporting country for the vast majority of it's income. Take that out and they are nothing.

Take a look at the borders of Iran and tell me where they are going to find help. It is no coincidence that the US has basically encircled Iran. That is part of a deeper overall strategy. Iran ultimately loses any open hostilities with the U.S. that results in full blown armed conflict.

[edit on 6-8-2007 by pavil]

well it might be true if leo zagami said it. afterall didn't ahmadenijad say allah talked to him? sort of like what bush and pat robertsons been saying

that picture looks kind of fake though

A new scenario, that leaves out most new acquisitions of equipment and any new levels of support from China. It would have to be set a bit in the future still, as Iran has not yet attained enough Uranium for one part of this, according to most estimates


D-60: Iran holds military exercises in the southern Zagros range based on a defense of that area against American forces. As part of the exercises they build defensive positions there.

D-30: Iran detonates 200kg of 20% enriched Uranium in an underground nuclear test. The initial data suggests that Iran may have successfully detonated a low yield nuclear device, although it won't take long for the US to figure out that they don't have a working weapon. Iran also fires a Fajr-3 over Saudi Arabia and into the Red Sea.

They claim to have proven that they have nuclear weapons and also to have proven that the Fajr-3 is stealth, as they have claimed in the past. The media goes nuts with bad analysis of the data, even though the intelligence community has a good idea of what is going on.
Iran has used most of its Uranium stockpile.

President Bush orders a carrier scheduled to take over in the gulf to depart early and extends the tour of the carrier on station. He also orders two Expeditionary Strike Groups into the area. Within 6 weeks, there will be two Carrier Strike Groups and 3 Expeditionary Strike Groups in the region.

D-28: Iran claims to have a few nuclear weapons and claims that this is sufficient defense for them. They are now willing to allow inspectors to verify that they have ceased enrichment activities and are not developing any further weapons. In return they demand non-aggression treaties with the US and Israel, a limit on US forces in the gulf region to be set at 100,000 and a ban on US Submarines, Destroyers, and Carriers passing the Strait of Hormuz.

D-21: Some analysts favor a counter offer of a non aggression pact, no SSBNs in the gulf, and a promise not to increase troop levels in Iraq. President Bush rejects any deal out of hand, saying that if Iran allows inspections it has nothing to worry about, and he's not signing away his authority to do what is 'best for America' otherwise.

D-20: Iran calls for 6 party talks between itself and the permanent members of the Security Council. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad makes a speech suggesting that Bush is leading his country to armageddon despite being offered peace, and that congress should impeach him before it is too late.

D-14: With the deadline for war if they cannot force the United States to back down approaching, Iran begins calling up martyr brigades and moves more troops to the West. The cat is now out of the bag as far as most most analysts are concerned- a war is coming.

The CSG and ESG already in the gulf are moved to Doha, out of the reach of Iran's land-based missile forces. Those enroute are ordered to take up station in the Arabian Sea, out of Iran's reach. A third carrier is ordered into the Med off of Syria.

The disruption to training and deployment cycles cues the media that Bush may be about to invade Iran. Civilian circles still can't believe that Iran might be contemplating a first strike.

American armored units in Iraq are moved to Basrah and prepared to make a limited invasion of Iran, with the goal of overrunning military bases and then returning to Iraq if Iran takes a major hostile action.

Britain announces that it is withdrawing its forces and will not support a war against Iran.

D-7: Two additional ESGs are now on station. The additional carrier is still two weeks away because of the difficulties involved in deploying it early.

A steady escalation of terrorist attacks in Baghdad is correctly blamed on Iran.

US intelligence reports indicate extensive movement of Iranian missile forces and air defenses. They have lost track of 25% of these and believe that Iran may have purchased intelligence on American surveillance from Russia.

50,000 Iranian civilians who have been selected as Martyrs gather in Abadan, near the Iraqi border, in a show of opposition to the "US Aggression".
Iran claims that the very moment they are attacked, an army of 1 million civilians, armed with whatever they can arm themselves with, will confront the invaders to weaken them for the military.

D-6: An additional wing of American attack aircraft arrives in Iraq, along with an additional infantry brigade which has been deployed early. All units scheduled to cycle out of Iraq are placed on hold for a minimum of one month.

D-5: "The Congressional Consent Bill of 2008" is defeated in the House of Representatives. It would have forbidden President Bush to go to war with Iran without first getting authorization from Congress.

D-4: President Bush tells reporters that "if Iran keeps it up, they're gonna have to be dealt with. Congress clearly sees that I'm right- they said so just yesterday. They know that the Commander in Chief has the power to make war for a good reason, and if there's an emergency I'm gonna do something about it."
A stream of Democrats go on the news claiming to clarify that their vote was not an authorization for war.

D-Day, 3 July 2008, 4 am local time, 2 July 8pm Washington, D.C. : Iranian Fast Attack Craft stream into the Persian Gulf and launch a missile barrage at the carrier Strike Group in Doha. The missiles saturate the defenses of the carrier. Multiple impacts cause severe damage. A fire breaks out on deck and the carrier goes down with all hands.
Retaliatory airstrikes from every American base within range are launched within the hour. The first wave destroys known air defenses and anti-ship missiles. B-2s and F-117s target known nuclear facilities.
Iranian troops begin crossing the border, focusing entirely the area from Basrah to Um Qasr at first. American armor and artillery inflict heavy losses on the Iranians. Helicopters stream into the area continuously from all over Iraq, busting tanks and delivering Marines to hold the best way into or out of Iraq.

Iran deploys CS gas repeatedly to force the defenders into MOPP gear in the scorching Iraqi summer. Late in the day, a human wave attack breaches the perimeter at Basrah. Fighting becomes street to street. American armor is concentrated outside of Basrah in an attempt to cut off the existing Iranian force from reinforcement and retake the city.

D+1: Despite staggering losses of vehicles, the Iranians manage to overrun American fuel supplies and force our tanks to temporarily withdraw. By the time Americans back home are waking up on the 4th of July, Basrah has fallen and over 100 American POWs are being paraded before cameras by the Iranians. British troops who have not yet left Iraq are also captured. Britain declares war on Iran, as does Australia.

D+7: Um Qasr has fallen. Iranian morale is waning but still fair despite repeated sacrificial attacks against a meatgrinder of American armor, artillery, and airpower which produces highly unfavorable kill ratios. Their commanders assure them that now they have done what is necessary by capturing the South, and that now the Americans are cut off and will surrender.

America thinks otherwise. American airpower has denied the iranians a crossing of the Tigris anywhere North of Basrah, and the Iranians will not be able to support their battle lines all the way to Nasiriyah. The American plan is to bleed the Iranians all the way to back to Nasiriyah, then counter attack and surround them.

Meanwhile, in America, political tensions are reaching near-riot levels, with many Democrats claiming that Bush provoked the war, and Republicans more angry than they have been since 9/11.

D+14: Advancing slowly in the face of repeated hit and fade attacks by the faster American forces, weary Iranian troops reach Nasiriyah. Their initial attacks are repulsed.

Two more American carriers arrive in the region, having been taken off of other duties and rushed their with all haste.

Several American brigades are being assembled in Turkey for the invasion of Iran, and Kurds militias are preparing as well, in hopes of uniting provinces in Iraq and Iran into an independent state after the war. America has secretly agreed with Turkey that Kurdish independence will not be allowed, in order to ensure that Turkey fully cooperates with the US.

Large scale deployment of heavy reinforcements is still a minimum of two months from the theater. For the time being this war will be fought with assets already in theater and significant reinforcements assets that can be moved by air.

D+21: Iran again begins the use of CS gas as reinforcements arrive outside Nasiriyah. President Bush initially favors an immediate reaction, but is convinced by his cabinet only to issue an ultimatum, for fear that lethal chemicals will be used otherwise. American air assets are tasked with the destruction of any and all major sources of dangerous industrial chemicals in Iran.

President Bush publically announces that Iran has 24 hours to cease the use of all chemical agents, lethal or non lethal, on the grounds that extended exposure to CS gas is killing Iraqi civilians who have no masks. Failure to comply will result in the destruction of Tehran by nuclear weapons.

International outcry is severe and threats of war crimes charges are raised, but no nuclear weapons state raises its defense posture. Speaker of the House Pelosi urges restraint and argues that a purely military target would be better, but does not mention the word impeachment.
Both of these things are an implicit acknowledgement that Bush will not be stopped.

D+22: The heaviest day of bombing since the war began virtually levels the city of Abadan and renders the city of Basrah virtually impassible.

Elements of the 1st Cavalry Division, 82nd Airborne, and 75th Ranger Batallion, and 2 Marine Expeditionary Units launch an air assault mission to retake Basrah and seal the trap on the Iranians.

US Mechanized forces encircle the Iranian forces attacking Nasiriyah. Cut off from resupply and from precious water, they have little time.

An American B-2 drops a single dummy bomb on a meeting of Iran's Expediency Council as a reminder that our nuclear threat is serious.

Iran accepts the fact that it wont be able to turn the tide and refrains from using chemical weapons in the hopes that China won't let a major fuel supplier be completely conquered. Unfortunately for them, Bush is going to let the chips fall where they may because the economic destruction of the civilized world is starting to seem like it might have something to do with what his masters want.

To make a long story short, the Iranian force in the South is forced to surrender, about 2 months into the war an invasion is launched in the North. The Iranians do a respectable job trying to defend the mountains but without the advantages postulated in previous scenarios, the issue is never in doubt.

An unwise occupation begins, and China begins selling off the dollar. With the economy already in bad shape, this probably triggers a depression and results in the birth of a serious cold war with China.

In 2009 the new president will probably try to patch things up with China but things won't quite be the same and the economic damage will be done, so we'll arrange a deal to steal a good amount of oil but we'll leave and hand over authority to the UN. There will be a big fight over who should pay for everything and take responsibility for Iran. With the global economy in bad shape, nobody will and Iran becomes a failed state.

American casualties for the war are between 10,000 and 20,000, plus one aircraft carrier, while if Iran hadn't seized the initiative at the beginning it could have been under 2,000.
Iranian military casualties are in the hundreds of thousands. Iranian civilian casualties are estimated at a quarter of a million. Iraqi civilian casualties are similiarly staggering.

Massive unrest in Iraq instigated by the Shias during and after the war results in an all out civil war that America can't really address until after they've finished off Iran, which means that Iraq is abandoned as well by the new president.

Iran has lost, but has America really won? We've been brought back into the real world- wars have consequences again. We're in huge economic trouble, and the outlook is that everything from Pakistan to Iraq will probably look a lot like Afghanistan did in 2000 by the year 2020 (Pakistan is in a lot of trouble all on its own).

So according to your scenario Iran is under US occupation in the end?

And if Iran has detonatable nukes they will use it tactically for any invading forces..

I expect more support from Russia for Iran if any invasion is being driven from the north(Turkey etc).
Similarly I expect continued, even overt military support from the Chinese.

Finally if the Iranians are pre-empting a carrier attack then th;ey would simultaneously target numerous surface vessels with other ordanance..
I expect more surface losses.. actually maybe not a carrier but a lot of surface vessel losses..

For the purpose of this scenario we're assuming that the USN does a good job of keeping most assets out of range, and that the Iranians try to concentrate their fire on the carrier figuring that it's the most expensive, hardest to replace, and most valuable to American operations.

Earlier scenarios involved more Chinese and Russian assistance and have been discussed a bit, but in this case I wanted to scale it down a bit.

Iranian tactical nuclear weapons just wont be happening. This scenario assumes that they are unable to develop a weapon in time, and end up using most of their Uranium in an impractically large bomb for a test in an effort to bluff their way out of the American attack they believe is coming.

A few things that were left out of that scenario could easily be included.

Iranian-backed terrorist attacks on US military bases. The Iranians could probably orchestrate a couple of truck bombings against US assets in Qatar and elsewhere.

Iranian use of mines off the coast of Iraq which might nail a US ship if America started inserting heavy assets via the Gulf after suppressing Iranian defenses.

Iran using its missiles to attack oil fields throughout the gulf once it realizes it is going to lose.

And of course the Van Ripper strategy I discussed in the previous scenario.
That one, if well targeted and allowed to happen by complacency on the part of the US, as was certainly demonstrated in the military exercise where it was invented, could cost us a heck of a lot, but would be less likely to operate on a very large scale, since this scenario stipulates that Iran puts the entire plan into action within just a few months, not after 1 or 2 years of preparation as before.

in this scenario, the best bet for iran would be

1. while moving martyr forces to the Iraqi and afgahnistan border, move most aircraft to the gulf. Fighters, Bombers, gunships(if they have them).
then before they launch the attack with the martyrs, they go on a bombing run. Air bases in Kuwait, and possible air bases in Qatar, the UAE and maybe Saudi.
Some Fighter and other aircraft are stationd in afgahn and iraq, (with the aformentioned distance bombers in Diego Garcia) Most are possibly Located within the denied exsitence bases.
Added to that kC-135's and kC-10's are located in Kuwait. If iran took those out, it'd make nearly any mission returning to point of origin would be hard to get out.
I'd say the US would lose 50% of thier deployed(to the middle east) airpower, and with no tankers it would limit what airpower they do have.

if they did this, even tho the civilians become combatants, it would be hard for the army and marines to take on due to few strafing runs but available aircraft. Even a Show of Force* would have to be carefully considered, due to demands of fuel conservation and other considerations on where the aircraft are needed.


a downside ,for iran, is that bases in Qatar, UAE and Saudi Arabia, are officially denied by their respective governments, and our own neither confirms nor denies the exsitence of said bases. Since they are denied, Iran may lose backing from other Muslim countries for attacking these alleged places.

but tho they lose backing it would be a serious consideration, giving them a better chance to overpower the ground forces before any reinforcements(ground or air) could arrive. Causing massive damages to the U.S. and more than likely making it last more than just a few months.

*show of force for you non military folks, is where the ground requests a fly by of local assests...fighters bombers, anything that can kill. Sometimes the enemies run in terror, saving lives and ammunition. others they continue attacking and the same aircraft is requested back around for a straffing mission.

p.s. i removed anything that mentioned nuclear due to post that said they wasted it all....

[edit on 7-8-2007 by wenfieldsecret]

That would be an outstanding move for them, but I honestly doubt they have the airpower for it. Their stuff is pretty old and for much of it they have long lacked proper material support for maintenance, their pilots aren't even remotely first-world standard, and they would be decidedly outnumbered.

There only hope of any success at all would be to get to their targets completely unseen. Short of putting every radar station in the area offline with some sort of EM weapon other than a nuke, I don't see that happening.

They certainly have the means to rain missiles on those sites, the problem is that the cruise missiles in their arsenal at the moment, with a few exceptions have proven inaccurate in the past (the searsuckers fired by Iraq were variants of the silkworms that Iran bought from China), which means that even with a saturation attack the accuracy will be low.

The success of their ballistic missiles (conventional warheads) will be in large part dependent on the failure of American THAAD. Granted that the numbers from Desert Storm may have been skewed to make Patriot look better than it was, I don't think that ballistic missiles will be a war winner for them at their current level of technology.

Depending on the location of those bases and the prevailing winds, burning oil wells might at least hamper operations at some of them.

Or if they could smuggle some light artillery or katushas into those countries through a terrorist surrogate, they could try for a lucky shot on pilot housing or fuel storage to at least interrupt the operational tempo in the early part of the war. For that matter I suppose you don't have to even get the weapons through port security if the bases are near the coast- they could be fired from a ship in the harbor.


There are a lot of dirty little tricks a creative intelligence service could attempt in a war where they needed advantages, especially against a big lumbering enemy like the US which has got forces literally all over the world- some are bound to be exposed.
The only question is how much money and material can you spend, and how much movement can you get away with, before somebody notices that you're up to something.

recently (within the past year) Iran flew a ep-3 type aircraft into qatari airspace. neither the alleged US forces nor Qatari forces did a thing about it. It got within 1 mile of the shore and turned around. I believe it was testing to see if any air defenses came up, i dont know if they did, i dont know about those.

to my knowledge the fighters and bombers are not on alert. tho that may change if iran were to move it's assests around. However i believe a lot of the aircraft were already along the coast. if it was a surprise, (without the official build up along the edges) i'd say they'd be able to get the runways inactive...and only a couple fighters up, that were already on the ground.

Originally posted by The Vagabond
Iranian tactical nuclear weapons just wont be happening. This scenario assumes that they are unable to develop a weapon in time, and end up using most of their Uranium in an impractically large bomb for a test in an effort to bluff their way out of the American attack they believe is coming.

apologies.. I havent read your earlier scenarios.

As for Iranians using tac nukes; well I'm not talking about those low yiled minaturised hit-techies that only a select few have; I was talking about using a free fall bomb or a mine bomb or a truck bomb on invading forces.

i forgot to mention what israel would do....they have a decent air force and with our backing that they've been getting...(pristine f-16's and other awesome aircraft, i once heard that we built them an rc-135...tho that is just thru the grapevine)

but unless this is all a setup....it'd make the bombing of the air bases all that more important....because with current deployed assests....and israels quality goods.....well....air battles make the wars shorter....

blitzkrieg....(send in the planes first)
shock and awe....
the first gulf war...(100 hours)

Out of curiosity, couldn't the United States achieve it's aims with a defensive war?

Lay mines across the border, move as many forces as are available to watch available exits out of Iran, and entrances into Iraq in the relative region.

Meanwhile, bombard Iran solely with Naval, Air, and Missile assets.

Destroy everything without any significant human involvement.

I'm not saying a war of destruction, but a war to disable and decapitate.

man, you make it too easy, that's what they do know....they "hold" the ground with the ground forces these days, they're really no invasion forces planned for gaining ground....plus you need eyes on the ground saying "large group holding weapons, combatants, coordinates"..."school is being used as a staging ground, combatant, coordinates" etc....