Could Iran pull off a military upset against the US?

Originally posted by ChrisRT
Please coma again... I don't understand.

If the tomcats are not operational why would Iran make the AIM-54? (Iran has copied this missile and is mass-prducing it). There is no other aircraft in Iran's inventory that can carry this missile. This leads me to believe that quite a few of them are operational otherwise the missiles that Iran is producing would be quite usless.

I did not know that... None the less, there are few if any operational F-14s left. You see how unreliable ours has become and that�s some of the youngest models with spare parts...
Current estimates put the number under 5 operational though.

Originally posted by ChrisRT
I did not know that... None the less, there are few if any operational F-14s left. You see how unreliable ours has become and that�s some of the youngest models with spare parts...
Current estimates put the number under 5 operational though.

What current estimates? Is there any chance you can provide me with a link or abook or anything like that? (I just want to see how reliable your source is because according to many people including Tom Cooper many of the western sources are very unreliable )Thanks

Here is an interview of assistant aircraft developer at SAHA (incharge of overhauling the F-14s) It is very old but it is better than nothing

Q: Mr. Amiri, would you please tell us briefly on how the F-14s are being repaired?

R: In the name of god the most gracious and merciful. After the great Islamic revolution which forced the western engineers and specialists (specially American specialists) to leave Iran were thought by a lot of foreign and domestic observers, that the overhauling of the Iranian F-14s would face great problems or would be impossible to be achieved by Iranian engineers and specialists. Their opinion on this matter was based on their believe, that Iranian engineers and specialists did not have the familiarity or the experience with these aircrafts, including its special hanger need or its basic repairs, especially since there was a western arms embargo imposed on Iran. But with the will of god and the hard working of the SAHA personnel and with help of our loyal engineer and specialists of IRIAF, in the year 1361 (1982-1983), the basic work on the overhauling was started.

Q: Please tell us about the problems that were faces with the overhauling of F-14s in the beginning?

R: The very first problem with the overhauling of F-14s, were the lack of needed engineers and specialists, overhauling packages, needed parts and tools and which the aircraft industry overcame the problem with the hard work and several years of experience in the field of aircraft repairs, and by extracting the needed information from available technical manuals and having access to plans for overhauling aircrafts. At the same time with help of our Islamic brothers and their experience from IRIAF, were called to relieve the pressure of lack of spare and tools needed for this job to be started.

Q: Please tell us about the steps takes in overhauling one F-14?

R: In short the overhauling of one F-14 is based on a 3-stage plan. The main stage which is it self made of 22 phases would be from entering the aircraft for overhaul to returning it. The stage for repairing parts of the aircraft is separate from the first stage (which is different for each individual aircraft) and technical overhauling.

Q: Would you please tell us about the advances made in the field of heavy repairs of F-14 aircraft in Iran?

R: Fortunately for us, the aircraft industry was able to focus on the need of IRIAF and to set plans for its repairing needs. It started from a slow and planned start in the year 1361 (1982-1983) and reached a proud and fast speed by the year 1371 (1992-1993). In this year several F-14s were repaired and one aircraft was finished with its overhauling and was returned and was returned to IRIAF. We hope with new years to come, that we perfect and get better in repairing the IRIAF aircrafts. Infect, with the full knowledge and the ability to fully repair any aircraft, we have announced to the IRIAF that we can repair any numbers of their aircrafts that they need.

Q: What self-sufficiency�s of this aircraft have we reached?

R: In the past 10 years, the repairing of these aircrafts were a big step and very knowledgeable for us in the fields of engineering these aircrafts and with the access to the powerful computer technology, we can say with certainty that we can completely overhaul these aircrafts. Also we have taken steps in the field of overhauling chassis�s and frames for these aircrafts, that with the availability of the needed funding we can continue doing this. We can do the same for other aircrafts in the IRIAF inventory. Also I would like to add that not only studies but steps in the field of manufacturing spare parts for these aircrafts are on hand on a day to day basis, and we have been successful up to now in this field.

Q: Was there any repairs done on damaged F-14s?

R: Yes, in this field we received great experience and knowledge from aircraft engineering section of SAHA, that has more to do with the years of imposed war. With in-depth focus on complicated engineering feats, out factories were able to exactly copy the needed parts with basic engineering knowledge.

Q: What are the effects of American embargo on repairing our F-14s?

R: In the beginning we thought that we would face a lot of problems, but by doing some research and having access to spare parts received before the Islamic revolution, we came to the conclusion that with the strong spare part needs and the little spare parts available, forced us to increase our affords in manufacturing spare parts for our F-14s. In comparison to our other projects, our F-14 repair project had a lower cost.

Q: What do you think the future of F-14 will be in both Iran and the world?

R: It is a common knowledge that outside US Navy, Iran is the only nation operating F-14s, because US does not want to sell these birds to other nations do to the fact that this birds are very capable aircrafts. The development of this aircraft in US was excellent. Infect the fact that upgrading it�s A model to the D models with greater flying and fighting capability was a great improvement. Upgrading their engines, adding more powerful radars, adding advance electronic warfare systems, upgrading to more powerful computers, modern hydraulics and adding or updating other modern equipments created aircrafts that does not have any other aircrafts that comes close to them in comparison.
The changing of the aircraft to a multi-rule aircraft by US., probably shrank the market for other aircrafts.

Q: First I want to thank you for your time and effort in giving this interview and second I would like to ask you if there is anything else you would like to talk about on this matter before we finish this interview up?

R: Yes, I would like to say that SAHA, with its 20 some years experience in the fields of overhauling aircrafts, their engines, and specially its specialized personnel�s, has become a unique industry in the middle east, and in the amount effort and work being done has placed it unique in the world as whole This is the reason that why we need to protect this great investment at all costs and that we must still continue to work on it to make it even greater. At the end I would like to thank all the technicians, engineers and all personnel�s who are working in Iran�s aircraft industry who had backed us up in the past during the imposed war.

Magazine Title: Air Industries

Edition: 2nd year, 23 edition / page 64

Date: May 1993

Awesome!

What current estimates? Is there any chance you can provide me with a link or abook or anything like that? (I just want to see how reliable your source is because according to many people including Tom Cooper many of the western sources are very unreliable )Thanks

I have scraps of info from many different people with different sources. I have no one source. They are however people in the military and people that study military aviation extensively.
But that means nothing and from what you showed me it looks as if they do have a few more then first thought. It doesn�t matter to me as they will all be out of service before I�m trained enough to go into battle against them.

Hey, what version radar do they have?

I can not say anything for sure because as I mentioned before I am not an expert in this field but I think they still use the AWG-9 . There is a thread about F-14s in Iranian service in Air Combat Information Group if you want to have a look at it

www.acig.org...



[edit on 24-12-2004 by Sep]

!!! That's the site I have been trying to re-find for ages!!! Thank you so much!

Merry Christmas...

dude you are really off ey!

Your posting about something that happened over 20 years ago. Iran had a very impressive airforce at the time thanks to the American aid they received. After the revolution, though, they ended up scrapping most of their planes just to keep their airforce alive. They had no spare parts for their planes.

Originally posted by Disturbed Deliverer

dude you are really off ey!

Your posting about something that happened over 20 years ago. Iran had a very impressive airforce at the time thanks to the American aid they received. After the revolution, though, they ended up scrapping most of their planes just to keep their airforce alive. They had no spare parts for their planes.

dude why do you turn the point around? you said and I quote"Seems more likely it's more for testing then actual combat. I don't think they have any real capability, certainly not anything to pass on to Iran.
e."

my point was IAF(Iran Air Force) had the know how 3 decades ago so they don't need it to be passed on to them twice!

that was all and that is why I said you were off. Make sense?

out.

my point was IAF(Iran Air Force) had the know how 3 decades ago so they don't need it to be passed on to them twice!

Iran doesn't have the same capability they had three decades ago. They most likely lost the limited capability they had during the Revolution. They couldn't even keep most of their fighters during that time.

found a few pics of Iranian millitary hardware

Anyone else things their new MBT looks like an Abrams?

Takwar Jeeps



Zolfaqar 3 MBT





Zolfaqar 1



Chieftain MBT



Zelzal-1 tactical ballistic missile.



This light truck is carrying an unknown battlefield-surveillance radar, apparently based on the French-made Rasit, several of which are known to have been captured from Iraq...



T-72 upgraded with ERA



T-72Z, a T-55 MBT upgraded in Iran by addition of the ERA



Boraq IFV, reverse-engineered BMP-1 with local modifications....



Fajr-2 MLRS



Naze tactical ballistic missile....



Shahab 3 IRBM





SS-1B/C Scud tactical ballistic missile



The IRIAF meanwhile operates an indigeniously-built version of the Chinese C.802 anti-ship missile. The air-to-ground version is known under the designation "Noor". The weapon passed extensive and very hard testing by the Iranian military before being accepted.



Finally, the IRIAF also displayed a series of PGMs it already has in service or is currently introducing. From left to right: Zoobin, Sattar-1, Kite-2000, and the M-117 GP-bomb caliber 750lb (350kg), equipped with retarding fins developed in the frame of the Project "Retard".



[edit on 25-12-2004 by Lucretius]

[edit on 25-12-2004 by Lucretius]

Note
Information on the Iranian Armed Forces is not widely available and post-revolution the forces are known to have gone through several major reorganisations (especially in the mid-90s). The information presented here is a reflection of what is know and published in open sources and not all reorganisations are reflected in this overview. Updates, additions and corrections are therefore very welcome!

A brief history
An Air Arm in the Persian Forces was established in the mid-20s. Operating De Havilland DH-82 Tiger Moths, Hawker Furies, Audax's and Hinds. In August 1955 the air arm (then called Imperial Iranian Air Force (IIAF)) gained independence and fell under the Ministry of War (Aviation Department). Under the Shas rule the USA supplied a large number of combat aircraft including 79 F-14A Tomcats, 32 F-4D Phantoms, 177 F-4Es and 16 RF-4Es, 140 F-5Es and 28 dual seat F-5Fs. Iran Air Defense relied heavily on western hardware until an arms-embargo was established when militant Iranian students seized the US Embassy in Tehran on 4 November 1979. Due to the seizure of spare parts delivery, the operational status of the western equipment deteriorated quickly (despite the US delivered equipment during the Iran gate scandal under the Ronald Reagan/George Bush Administration). The Iran-Iraq war resulted in a huge boost of the indigenous arms industry and through local production of arms and spare parts, the Iranian Armed Forces kept its assets airworthy. After the February 1979 revolution the only western deliveries were 35 Pilatus PC-7, 15 PC-6 Porters and 15 Brazilian-built EMB312 Tucano trainers. These deliveries took place between 1983 and 1990. The main non-western suppliers of aircraft and support have undoubtedly been China with their deliveries of F-7M (MiG-21) and and Russia with the MiG-29, An-74, Su-24MK (some ex Iraq AF) and Il-76TDs (some ex Iraq AF).

Mid 1991, during the 2nd Gulf War a lot of Iraq Air Force pilot fled to their neighboring country Iran, supplying the IRIAF with a large number of aircraft including Mirage F1BQ/EQ (which now forms at least one sauqdron at Mashhad), Su-24MK Fencer-Ds, MiG-29 Fulcrums, Su-20s, Su-22M Fitters, Su-25 Frogfoots, MiG-23s in several configurations and a number of Il-76s. At least the Mirages and the Su-24MKs gained operational status.

The air arm of the Iranian armed forces has drawn a lot of media attention lately by revealing some of the locally produced and upgraded hardware during the Khoramshahr Air Exhibition held in May and June 2002 and the Iran International Air Show held at Kish Island (OIBK) in October and November 2002. Iran is clearly trying to achieve a totally self-sufficient armaments capability and is doing quite well taking into account that the arms trade had come to a total stand-still since the 1979 revolution. Some of the projects currently undertaken by the local industries like the Iran Aircraft Manufacturing Industries (IAMI) in conjunction with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) are:

* The Simorgh is a Northrop F-5A to F-5B conversion by the Iran Aircraft Manufacturing Industries (IAMI) at Shahin Shahr Isfahan
* Shafagh, a two-seat Advanced training and Attack aircraft that is allegedly based on the Russian-Iranian "Project Integral". Plans are to produce three versions of the Shafagh. One two-seat trainer/light strike version and two one-seat fighter-bomber versions. They will be fitted with Russian ejection seats.
* Parastu (Swallow), a reverse-engineered Beech F33 Bonanza
* Azarakhsh (Lightning), a reverse engineered F-5E.
* JT2-2 Tazarv, the third prototype of the jet-powered Dorna (Lark) which is a light trainer
* Shahed 274, a locally designed light helicopter with a combination of components of several helicopter-types, mainly the Bell 206.
* Shavabiz 75, a reverse-engineered Bell 214C
* Project 2061, a reverse-engineered Bell 206
* Project 2091, an upgrade program of the AH-1J
* Iran-140, a license built Antonov An-140

Besides these projects the local aviation industry performs upgrades and overhaul programs on a high technical level on the complete fleet of fixed wing aircraft and helicopters.

It is confirmed that an unknown number of "new" Su-25s were delivered to the Iranian Revolution Guards Corps Air Force (IRGCAF) in 2003. Where these Frogfoots originate from is unclear. During an arms exhibition at Tehran-Mehrabad set up to commemorate the 8-year war with Iraq, a Su-25 was shown to the public. Also an F-14A and a JT2-2 Tazarv were displayed.

Airbase structure
The IRIAF Airbase structure consists of a number of Tactical Air Bases which are numbered.

* 1st Tactical Air Base , Tehran Mehrabad Int'l (OIII)
* 2nd Tactical Air Base , Tabriz (OITT) (aka Janbaz and Shahid Bakeri)
* 3rd Tactical Air Base , Nosheh (OIHH) (aka Hamadan)
* 4th Tactical Air Base , Vahdati (OIAD) (aka Dezful)
* 5th Tactical Air Base , Omidiyeh (OIAJ)
* 6th Tactical Air Base , Bushehr (OIBB)
* 7th Tactical Air Base , Shiraz Shahid Dastghaib Int'l (OISS)
* 8th Tactical Air Base , Esfahan/Shahid Beheshti Int'l (OIFM)
* 9th Tactical Air Base , Bandar Abbas Int'l (OIKB)
* 10th Tactical Air Base , Chah Bahar (OIZC)
* 13th Tactical Air Base, Zahedan (OIZH)
* 14th Tactical Air Base, Mashhad (OIMM)




IRIAF


I mean most of Iranian Defence Idndustry is Secret so I don't know much but,
they had phantoms then, they have phantoms now(
* The Simorgh is a Northrop F-5A to F-5B conversion by the Iran Aircraft Manufacturing Industries (IAMI) at Shahin Shahr Isfahan
) They had tankers then, they have tankers now! so I guess they still can perfomr the air to air refulling procedure! simple ha?

[edit on 25-12-2004 by zurvan]

Originally posted by ChrisRT

!!! That's the site I have been trying to re-find for ages!!! Thank you so much!

Merry Christmas...

It is always a pleasure and Merry Christmas to you too.

Originally posted by Disturbed Deliverer
After the revolution, though, they ended up scrapping most of their planes just to keep their airforce alive. They had no spare parts for their planes.

What did you miss the last page? Iran makes its own spare parts for the planes. According to some sources Iran cn build 80% of the F-14s

What did you miss the last page? Iran makes its own spare parts for the planes. According to some sources Iran cn build 80% of the F-14s

At this point Iran can make cheap ripoffs of F-14's, yes.

I mean most of Iranian Defence Idndustry is Secret so I don't know much but,
they had phantoms then, they have phantoms now(
* The Simorgh is a Northrop F-5A to F-5B conversion by the Iran Aircraft Manufacturing Industries (IAMI) at Shahin Shahr Isfahan
) They had tankers then, they have tankers now! so I guess they still can perfomr the air to air refulling procedure! simple ha?

Nothing there ever said anything about whether Iran owned tankers. Saving a few fighters is easier. The Iranians had a few hundred, and could scrap them down. Iran only had a handfull of tankers.

Whether or not they can make new weapons is sorta irrelevant, because after the first five minutes of the war, the US would probably be ending it, one way or another.

Let us get something out of the way. I don't hate America, so anybody claiming such should be prepared to hear me scream libel. I don't hate the west, it's just a compass direction.

Iran has access to the munitions of two of the largest powers on earth, China and Russia. Iran also has the moral authority over millions upon millions of muslims worldwide. They are in a position of great wealth and prestige globally, mainly due to their oil concerns. A nation of this sort is not a good target for agression, for countless reasons, most of which were outlined already earlier in this mammoth thread. I just want to talk about the first five minutes of any hypothetical war with Iran.

The Iranian air force is not a piece of junk, and while they might not be highly trained, they're not looking for a dogfight. All they have to do is run from the barracks at the first claxon alarm, jump in their jets, all across Iran, and take off. Then, a minute or so later, when the American Battle group is 4 or 5 miles away, they have to push a couple of buttons and squeeze a trigger. Then, what happens is, a sunburn or onyx missle eats a carrier for breakfast. These things eat carriers without a nuke warhead, meaning the iranians can do this without escalating to a full on nuke battle.

They have more multi-million dollar missles than we have mega-million dollar carriers and battleships. The math is not in favor of our side. If America lost it's boats, it would probably strand the entire army in hostile territory, and a real bloodbath would begin. Without the ships, there is no good way to coordinate the removal of forces from the area. I think attacking Iran would be a bad idea. I thought attacking Iraq was a bad idea, but hey, that's life when you live in America. What does America do? Attack places. In fact, America has been at war nonstop since its inception.

I'm surprised that some people are surprised.

First off, that is some nice looking Irani hardware with some relatively impressive specs...

At this point Iran can make cheap ripoffs of F-14's, yes.

Not that I agree with this but replicas with near performance and a jolly set of electronics can still be labeled as dangerous as an Iranian F-14A.

All they have to do is run from the barracks at the first claxon alarm, jump in their jets, all across Iran, and take off.

Problem is that B-2, F-117, and possibly F/A-22 would be simultaneously destroying their airfields; that would be the alarm they where going to hear... This is not opinion but pure fact. You bring out you�re biggest conventional guns at first shot to ensure you�re enemy doesn�t have %100 in the response...
So you can scrap any idea of them getting more then a few fighters off the ground. If we have it good enough over there F/A-22s would be escorting the bombers and pounce any fighters that make it in the air.

Then, a minute or so later, when the American Battle group is 4 or 5 miles away, they have to push a couple of buttons and squeeze a trigger. Then, what happens is, a sunburn or onyx missle eats a carrier for breakfast.

They'd probably be letting them off allot further then 5 clicks... These things are absolutely no joke. You do know that we are replacing the Phalanx cannon which was initially supposed to foil incoming projectiles? I believe France or Germany is developing the system... This alone gives a good chance at only a few windows and whatnot being blown out.
Our military has been training to foil such attacks for more then a decade�
But hey, things do happen�

They have more multi-million dollar missles than we have mega-million dollar carriers and battleships.

Keep the Navy out of there, eh?

If America lost it's boats, it would probably strand the entire army in hostile territory, and a real bloodbath would begin. Without the ships, there is no good way to coordinate the removal of forces from the area.

Most of the troops got in and will go out by way of USAF transport. initial small groups of troops where transported by ship but after the main barrage the USAF takes over. Why would it turn into a blood bath? Lack of CAS from the Navy? The USAF and it's F-16 and A-10 would take over...

I think attacking Iran would be a bad idea.

So do %90+ of other Americans... I wonder if we and they could make out an energy package deal and in turn they scrap the Nuke works?




Think the best thing we can do is stay off their soil and closely monitor the situation at all times...

Great response Chris, and I'm not being sarcastic (for a change).

"Problem is that B-2, F-117, and possibly F/A-22 would be simultaneously destroying their airfields; that would be the alarm they where going to hear... This is not opinion but pure fact. You bring out you�re biggest conventional guns at first shot to ensure you�re enemy doesn�t have %100 in the response..."

Problem is, as I see it, Iran won't be crept up on so easily. They don't have amazing capability or anything, detection-wise, but they do have a large number of airfields on high alert. It is possible though, that the iranians would be just as surprised by a huge number of american jets coming over the mountains, as the americans would be by a huge number of iranian jets coming over the mountains. I do know however, that Russia has invested a lot of money in Iran, and is probably keeping an eye on its investment. I imagine Iranian inteligence is quite good also, as they have purged so many foreign spies. They might have advanced info of American attack, or they might not. Like any battle, surprise would be a deciding factor. If America managed to neutralize 70% of Iranian missle threat before it got off the ground, the threat to sea assets would be reduced tremendously, but I'm not convinced that's a feasible goal.

"They'd probably be letting them off allot further then 5 clicks... These things are absolutely no joke. You do know that we are replacing the Phalanx cannon which was initially supposed to foil incoming projectiles?"

Yeah, I just don't think Putin is completely B.S.ing when he says Russian missle are 10 years ahead of American defenses. I believe him, and the test data pretty much backs him up. There's no doubt that if an onyx missle strikes a ship, the ship goes down. Some people debate whether or not the missle is capable of hitting the ship. The speed alone is enough to convince me. The missle travels at, I believe Mach 2.9. Also, it has an erratic approach vector due to nifty new 'evasion tactics' programmed in. I presume they're random and designed specifically to throw off defense systems. I think laser might be effective, not sure though, there's no test data to indicate one way or another. Bottom line, these missles were designed by the Russians to eat American ships, an effort to neutralize American sea power in the eastern hemisphere. I think it worked, at least for the time being. The war drums are still being beaten, but the pace is not what one could describe as frenzied.

I think it could become an unmanageable situation due to lack of air support from the navy yes, but more so because of the lack of extraction that would be in place if the Navy lost some ships and buggered out. The USAF can fly a lot of fellows, that's for sure, but can it zip in and out without preparing landing strips first, and where would they take off from? We don't have enough planes already on the ground in the middle east to make up for the lose of a carriers jet allotment. The carrier is an integral part of the air war. Also, I think men in the hills with mortars and SAMS will make a mess out of the landing zones and the descending aircraft. Thoughts on this?

Problem is, as I see it, Iran won't be crept up on so easily. They don't have amazing capability or anything, detection-wise, but they do have a large number of airfields on high alert.

True, though, how is one to detect a stealth attack force in the black of night at angles 30? One can neither hear, see, or electronically see the force while it�s going through its system checks and waypoints... A well coordinated attack can have flights at the needed airbases at ~the same time as to catch everyone off guard. This plan would of curse take a great deal of planning and combed over with a fine tooth comb; and that�s just the initial bombing of key EW stations and airfields.

I think laser might be effective, not sure though, there's no test data to indicate one way or another. Bottom line, these missles were designed by the Russians to eat American ships, an effort to neutralize American sea power in the eastern hemisphere.

We will never know until it is tested in real life. For the sake of my sanity I hope they are never used.
Lasers are in the testing phase for use on a variety of airforce devices. It's only a matter of time before the Navy picks up on the already researched technology from the airforce and sees its defensive/offensive capabilities. With accurate sensors and a powerful enough laser a ASMs would be no match...

USAF can fly a lot of fellows, that's for sure, but can it zip in and out without preparing landing strips first, and where would they take off from?

Yep, there are plenty of specialized task forces all over the world for just that purpose... Most of our cargo transports are designed to take off on improvised/no runway.

We don't have enough planes already on the ground in the middle east to make up for the lose of a carriers jet allotment.

There are plenty of attack squadron over there... Most of the time it�s the USN that call in Hornet strikes. These aren�t called in as often as you'd think. They usually have a dozen or so in the air at any one time on assigned routs waiting for the call to action if needed.

The carrier is an integral part of the air war.

Yes it is. The airforce is far more of a power air element the Navy is. The Navy is meant to be flexible and efficient. The airforce is unquestionably dominant when need be...

Also, I think men in the hills with mortars and SAMS will make a mess out of the landing zones and the descending aircraft. Thoughts on this

That is always a problem. These transport aircraft are rigged with chaff/flair dispensers like the fighter/attack jets. The transport however spew them out like death is on its 6. They can easily loose 1 engine and finish the job and if need be loose 2...

Like I said before, it�s best if we stay off of their soil and monitor the situation. Only intervene when/if we see sour arms deals arise...

well first of all i'd like to say that the consequences of israel or america bombing iran or attacking iran would be devastating and drastically changing everything around. the first thing that would happen is that insurgency in iraq afghanistan would increase and musharraf's weak government could possibly be overthrown along with egyptian government. now i know alot of people on here want to bad mouth iran as some sort of camel army but these people are trained determined and proffesional. iran has a 12 million man army believe it or not and every male is military trained+females fighting+children fighting=hell on earth. you will not be greeted as liberators no matter how much the young students hate ahmadenijad.

the troops in iraq would turn into basically hostages and probably exterminated there's also 25,000 americans in lebanon just to remind you. things would really go flip and china and russia would fund and train the arabs into a formidable force. some of you people think that the pashtuns will take the americans as friends or allies. you seem to forget that obl has a 60% aproval rating in this country. turkey could also likely not be overthrown. israel would be crushed like a bug though no doubt about it. what you'll see is the run being ran by 4 superpowers. the nau and britain who will probably will link up with south america or most likely run them over for land and resource. the india russian and chinese alliance. the caliphate and the european union. something directly out of george orwel''s 1984. no matter how you look at it iran will not and shall not be squashed like a bug. there's no possible way america can win an outright war against iran.

china clearly has interests in iran and would most likely train sell weapons too and supply the islamic world. this is a really big thing i wanna see how it turns out (not really but you get the drift)