Ebola: Facts, Opinions, and Speculations.

a reply to: ikonoklast

Hi,
Great work on the charts as always. This has been an ongoing issue....there have been no systematic empirical studies conducted on human viral shedding of ebola . Hence, there is no data to support the statement . I addressed this in a previous post and will place below with some other sources. Dr. Bausch just answered a similar question in a lecture given at Case Western a few days ago. One last fact, it attacks cells differently than HIV, "Ebola’s sucker punch is its speed of replication. At the time of death, a patient can have 1 billion copies of the virus in one cubic centimeter of blood. HIV, only infects two types of immune cells, Ebola first infects white blood cells that disable the body’s ability to destroy foreign substances, then seizes nearly every cell type.It’s a systemic viral infection throughout your body as opposed to an infection of just your immune system,” Saphire said. “Patients may die before they’re able to mount much of an immune response.” Erica Ollmann Saphire, PhD, professor, Department of Immunology and Microbial Science, The Scripps Research Institute. The body is left wide open, with no protection. Then Ebola starts copying itself like crazy, Amarasinghe says. "Multiple viruses can even invade a single cell," he says. "HIV can't even do that." (virologist Gaya Amarasinghe, of Washington University in St. Louis)

About the need for more scientific research on Ebola: "At what stage of the illness, and in what tissues is Ebola virus shed and may infect others?" he asked. No studies have been done on that. The research instead has been very product-oriented, focusing on vaccines and other therapies. "Now we wish we did understand more about the disease," he said.
www.cleveland.com...

The human viral shedding is at best an assumption and the data we do have is based entirely on previous outbreaks, well know strand (none or limited opportunities to mutate). The current genetic sequencing research is telling you it has mutated and continues to do so....this makes the boundaries of viral shedding as well as questions of when this occurs to the point of being infectious even more presumptuous.


"We don't really have lots of sound data of what period people start shedding virus and from what tissues. And so that would be incredibly valuable data. What we do have is the epidemiological data, and when we put that together from past outbreaks, it really appears that most infections occur from very sick people late in the course of their illness"(Dr. Daniel Bausch).

There is some limited data on people that have survived in terms of how long it remains possible to shed the virus.There are many studies from non human primates
www.ecdc.europa.eu...
Data on the post-recovery viraemic period are limited. Shedding of Ebola virus has been
reported in breast milk and semen after the virus has been cleared from blood [4]. Viable virus has been isolated
from semen up to seven weeks after recovery, and spermatogenic transmission of Marburg virus has been
documented [10]. There is a paucity of data on Ebola virus in human egg cells. The risk of Ebola transmission
should be considered in connection with reproductive cell donations, both for ‘partner’ and ‘other than partner’
donations.
However, the evidence that Ebola virus may persist for some time in the human body after recovery from EVD is
insufficient to define a specific deferral period for donors who have recovered from EVD. The current guidance
stipulates deferral for 12 months following recovery from a viral haemorrhagic fever [11] and this recommendation
also applies to donors who have recovered from EVD. In addition, living or deceased donors of SoHO should have
tested negative for Ebola virus by NAT.

a reply to: bella2256

Thanks, both for the feedback on the charts and for the excellent information!

a reply to: ikonoklast

I agree with you.

Wear a condom kids. It's not just aids anymore.

Here is my personal speculation about Ebola spreading in the US.



100 cases..............It is 24hr news on every channel. Government and health care start gearing up with a influx of money. People start really paying attention and some even start prepping. Flights out of West Africa are banned.


1000 cases.............Panic starts gripping the nation. Our obsessive American nature starts taking over. Mainstream media is covering this from every direction. Fear is being pushed and people buy it this time. Parents start keeping kids home from school especially in urban areas. The economy starts feeling the pressure and stocks start dropping. Service industries are really feeling the pinch places like fast food are down 50%.



10,000 cases...........We are in full swing panic mode. Everybody becomes a prepper overnight and store shelves empty especially in urban areas. Many service industries like fast food and restaurants are empty and begin closing the doors. Hospitals are over run with possible Ebola cases and begin cracking under the pressure. The level of care is dropping across the country. The stock market is crashing and only the health care sectors are strong. Schools are closing across the country because of fear and safety.



100,000 cases.........Martial law is declared and health care workers are forced to show up for work by newly signed laws. Trucking,trains,health care,grocery stores become nationalized by new laws signed by executive orders. Events like sports,elections,concerts,theater are all postponed until further notice by law. The people are scared and begin demanding action to prevent the spread any further. Entire cities are blocked off in a bid to stop the spread.


1,000,000 cases........The government would have to nationalize the entire economy just to keep it afloat. Hospitals would be overrun and police forces would not be able to keep the peace anymore. The military would also have huge issues as soldiers go AWOL to take care of family members. The economy would crash and the dollar would be worthless as hyper inflation finally sets in.



This is only what I think could happen........Many what if's. Maybe I am underestimating the good inside all of us. I hope they find a cure or stop the spread before it ever reaches these numbers. God speed and good health to everyone trying to stop this terrible disease.

a reply to: SubTruth

Marshal law is declared and health care workers are forced to show up for work by newly signed laws.

As yes. The good old "Marshal law" thing.

Here ya go.
legal-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com...

a reply to: Phage

To be honest since 9/11 with the patriot act we are kinda under martial law all the time. What do you think of my what if's?


Or would you rather debate endlessly about nothing again? You tend to post a one liner about a certain context or words while missing the broader point. In my eyes it seems kinda arrogant.

a reply to: SubTruth
Well, knowing what you are talking about (martial law, not "marshal law") is a good start but I don't see much point on speculating on someone else's speculation. In particular, the speculation about ebola becoming epidemic in North America. In particular, speculation based on ignorance, sensationalism, and fear.

You don't seem to provide an actual timeline though. How long before there are a million cases?

originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: SubTruth
Well, knowing what you are talking about (martial law, not "marshal law") is a good start but I don't see much point on speculating on someone else's speculation. In particular, the speculation about ebola becoming epidemic in North America. In particular, speculation based on ignorance, sensationalism, and fear.

You don't seem to provide an actual timeline though. How long before there are a million cases?

I love grammar Nazi's my wife is epic. I have seen many of your one liner posts just like this last one. It comes off as arrogant in my eyes. Maybe I am seeing it wrong and your endless,petty insight into the small things is actually helping out the greater good.


I am not a writer or great thinker just some dude posting on a forum. I am not a expert in this subject.



OK rant over. I do not have a timeline just a what I think would happen if it reaches this number of cases.

originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: SubTruth

Marshal law is declared and health care workers are forced to show up for work by newly signed laws.

As yes. The good old "Marshal law" thing.

Here ya go.
legal-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com...

I fixed the spelling for ya. Thank you for expertly pointing out my spelling error,I am in your debt.

originally posted by: SubTruth

originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: SubTruth
Well, knowing what you are talking about (martial law, not "marshal law") is a good start but I don't see much point on speculating on someone else's speculation. In particular, the speculation about ebola becoming epidemic in North America. In particular, speculation based on ignorance, sensationalism, and fear.

You don't seem to provide an actual timeline though. How long before there are a million cases?

I love grammar Nazi's my wife is epic. I have seen many of your one liner posts just like this last one. It comes off as arrogant in my eyes. Maybe I am seeing it wrong and your endless,petty insight into the small things is actually helping out the greater good.


I am not a writer or great thinker just some dude posting on a forum. I am not a expert in this subject.



OK rant over. I do not have a timeline just a what I think would happen if it reaches this number of cases.

Since when is insight into the small things a bad thing? I thought it was the small things that count.

I really didn't want to start another Ebola thread so I'll post this here.

(CNN) -- It can be exhausting nursing a child through a nasty bout with the flu, so imagine how 22-year-old Fatu Kekula felt nursing her entire family through Ebola.

Her father. Her mother. Her sister. Her cousin. Fatu took care of them all, single-handedly feeding them, cleaning them and giving them medications.

And she did so with remarkable success. Three out of her four patients survived. That's a 25% death rate -- considerably better than the estimated Ebola death rate of 70%.

Fatu stayed healthy, which is noteworthy considering that more than 300 health care workers have become infected with Ebola, and she didn't even have personal protection equipment -- those white space suits and goggles used in Ebola treatment units.

Instead Fatu, who's in her final year of nursing school, invented her own equipment. International aid workers heard about Fatu's "trash bag method" and are now teaching it to other West Africans who can't get into hospitals and don't have protective gear of their own.

Every day, several times a day for about two weeks, Fatu put trash bags over her socks and tied them in a knot over her calves. Then she put on a pair of rubber boots and then another set of trash bags over the boots.
She wrapped her hair in a pair of stockings and over that a trash bag. Next she donned a raincoat and four pairs of gloves on each hand, followed by a mask.

It was an arduous and time-consuming process, but Fatu was religious about it, never cutting corners.

If this woman can use TRASH BAGS to protect herself, successfully, then there should be absolutely no excuse why any healthcare workers should contract Ebola. Someone start this women a Go Fund Me page so she can finish nursing school.

Now there's no reasons to spend millions and millions of dollars on PPE suits to send to the infected countries. We can just go to Costco/Sam's Club and send the boxes trash bags in bulk! Seems more effective. Millions saved right there. 💰💰💰

'Merica you could learn a thing from this.

Woman saves three relatives from Ebola- full article HERE.

a reply to: blackcatmagic
Read that last week. Amazing story...amazing courage and ingenuity...amazing love.

a reply to: blackcatmagic

How impressive. Goes to show that the Ebola death rate probably has a lot more to do with conditions and treatment than people give it credit for. I feel for this woman immensely for having to nurse family through this disease, especially since one of her patients who died was a family member.

Roundup of the status of all ebola patients in U.S, (that we know of and not including the potential in NYC today)...

Ebola Outbreak 2014 News Update, Watchlist & Death Toll: Spanish Nurse Aide, Nebraska Cameraman Cleared; Texas Nurses in 'Good Condition'

I updated the Ebola charts with the latest data from WHO:

Updated Ebola charts

According to WHO, through October 27, 2014 (October 25, 2014 for Liberia), there were:

13,703 reported Ebola cases
4,920 reported Ebola deaths

In perhaps one of those cosmic ironies (since I am all too well acquainted with the details of the various Ebola outbreaks), I had to travel this past weekend on business to Texas. Although I was not in Dallas, some of the people I had fairly close contact with were from Dallas, and some lived and worked near the neighborhoods and the hospital where the Ebola patients were (within 2-5 miles).

As far as I know, I had no direct contact with anyone who would have been exposed to Ebola, although some people I had close contact with were healthcare workers (nurses, EMT's, etc.). I'm not sure if any of the people from Dallas were healthcare workers.

I flew out of Chicago's Midway Airport to St. Louis and then on to San Antonio. All of the airport and TSA employees I saw in Chicago and St. Louis had rubber gloves on, but I only recall seeing TSA employees with rubber gloves at the airport in San Antonio.

For the first leg of the trip (Chicago to St. Louis), flight attendants all had rubber gloves on too, but from St. Louis to San Antonio, none of the flight attendants had gloves on.

Coming back, I had a direct flight from San Antonio to Chicago. The flight attendants on the return flight didn't wear gloves most of the time, but they put a glove on one hand when coming around and picking up empty drink cups and trash... but sometimes they used the hand without a glove to pick up the trash.

Both coming and going, no one at the airports or on the airplanes asked me any questions related to Ebola. The airplanes were packed completely, no sign of fear keeping people away. I did notice that almost no one was touching things like escalator or stair hand rails - except for one guy. I was walking behind him for a while and I don't think he passed a single thing without touching it. No gloves, and he was an airport employee. It was a stark contrast, seeing that guy touching everything and everyone else touching nothing.

A day or two after returning, I had to stop by a doctor's office to pick up some paperwork. The office is in a physician's office building attached to a hospital. There were brand new hand sanitizer dispensers that had just been put up everywhere in the building - by entrances and exits, elevators, reception windows and desks, etc. You couldn't hardly turn around in the building without bumping into 3 or 4 dispensers.

And at the reception window at the doctor's office, there was a new sign posted... a CDC sign. The sign said that under orders from the CDC, they would be asking all patients about any travel to areas with Ebola outbreaks.

Despite the CDC sign, they didn't ask me about any traveling. But before I left, I asked them if the hand sanitizer dispensers were all new and whether they were related to the CDC sign about Ebola. They said they didn't know if they were related, but that the hand sanitizers were all put up last week a day or two before they received the Ebola sign last Friday. I asked them if they had heard anything about there possibly being more Ebola cases in the US than were being reported, and I mentioned there were rumors. They said they hadn't heard anything, "but there are always rumors..."

I'm pretty sure I'm fine with no exposure, but it's getting weird out there...

This seems to fit here nicely:


Ebola scare on the Canaries:

www.dailymail.co.uk... -terrified-tourists.html

Unfortunately the Daily Mail is the only news outlet that seems to cover this at the moment or I would have added a few more.

"On 6 September the department of health reported an outbreak of the Reston Ebola virus in a research breeding facility under primates. Twenty five workers were tested for the virus. All of the workers tested negative for the disease." (2015, RESTV type)

How dose Ebola begin??? Where dose it start, if we learn this we can get rid of it all together.