Ebola: Facts, Opinions, and Speculations.

The latest death toll from Ebola is now at 953, and climbing. Fact. In a couple of days, it'll be over a thousand. Speculation.

There's many good threads on the Ebola Pandemic (not a fact yet), but I'd like to start a thread where we can talk about everything Ebola, and be able to talk about facts, opinions and speculations, and not have to worry being on-topic, as long as it is Ebola related.

This is a fork of Destinyone's thread: Ebola Patient in Atlanta Hospital

That thread contains a plethora of Ebola related information, but it's buried in 115 pages atm, and I'd like for the originators of that material to re-post their research here. It went way beyond the OP, and it could really help others to have that information summarized in this thread. Feel free to cross-link posts that you feel are valuable, and add any information you feel is relevant.

Other threads to check out:

Ebola - my visual charts & projections based on WHO data

IT'S SPREADING: Liberian dies in Morocco of Ebola

Saudi Arabia tests first suspected Ebola case; outbreak worse than people know

Creator of Experimental Ebola "Treatment" Once Joked About Culling Humanity with Engineered Virus

Ebola Watch 2014

I'll start with this FACT: Ebola is not currently airborne. My OPINION is that is was a bad idea to bring it to the US, but Emory will contain their samples just fine. A SPECULATION is that it will appear in other places, and will be uncontained, and cause millions of deaths this time around.

(Feel free to preface your post with FACT, OPINION, or SPECULATION, so members can have an Idea on your position of your post about Ebola. This virus is simply to deadly not to find some sort of method to organize all the information together.)

Have at it.

a reply to: Druid42

SPECULATION: Unreported numbers are far greater. We will learn this soon enough.

SPECULATION: The WHO and the CDC have projections they are not making public, but such projections are what prompted their public actions today.

SPECULATION: Nigeria's problem is much bigger than the 8 cases we know of today.

SPECULATION: Asia and Europe are at far greater risk than North America. They will be hit first.

SPECULATION: The virus is more virulent than previously assumed.

a reply to: Druid42

Great. I'll add this bit of brain sandpaper.

The leaked CBP report that shows the numbers of people from other countries who've crossed our border, including 71 from the 3 areas of Africa currently having ebola crisis.


LUBBOCK, Texas — A leaked intelligence analysis from the Customs and Border Protection (CBP) reveals the exact numbers of illegal immigrants entering and attempting to enter the U.S. from more than 75 different countries. The report was obtained by a trusted source within the CBP agency who leaked the document and spoke with Breitbart Texas on the condition of anonymity. The report is labeled as "Unclassified//For Official Use Only" and indicates that the data should be handled as "Sensitive But Unclassified (SBU)."


Among the significant revelations are that individuals from nations currently suffering from the world’s largest Ebola outbreak have been caught attempting to sneak across the porous U.S. border into the interior of the United States. At least 71 individuals from the three nations affected by the current Ebola outbreak have either turned themselves in or been caught attempting to illegally enter the U.S. by U.S. authorities between January 2014 and July 2014.

Link to article: www.breitbart.com...

Link to actual leaked document: www.scribd.com...

Does that worry you...it does me.

Des

a reply to: Druid42

Fact. You should read this study.

www.nature.com...

Opinion. Ppl on ats should be prepared.

Speculation. Its also a bit pretentious to callout fact/speculation like our word is god.

@destiny

good information on a very bad thing. thanks.
it worries me a great deal, but my thought is it's a ringing bell we cannot unring. so, what to do.
as everyone else said, be prepared.
But, can anyone ever really be prepared for something like that?
tetra

eta: anything and everything I say is probably speculation. and that's likely fact.

a reply to: Destinyone

INFECTIOUS DOSE: 1 - 10 aerosolized organisms are sufficient to cause infection in humans (21).

MODE OF TRANSMISSION: In an outbreak, it is hypothesized that the first patient becomes infected as a result of contact with an infected animal (15). Person-to-person transmission occurs via close personal contact with an infected individual or their body fluids during the late stages of infection or after death (1, 2, 15, 27). Nosocomial infections can occur through contact with infected body fluids due to the reuse of unsterilized syringes, needles, or other medical equipment contaminated with these fluids (1, 2). Humans may be infected by handling sick or dead non-human primates and are also at risk when handling the bodies of deceased humans in preparation for funerals, suggesting possible transmission through aerosol droplets (2, 6, 28). In the laboratory, infection through small-particle aerosols has been demonstrated in primates, and

airborne spread among humans is strongly suspected,

although it has not yet been conclusively demonstrated (1, 6, 13). The importance of this route of transmission is not clear. Poor hygienic conditions can aid the spread of the virus (6).

BLEACH - ( sodium hypochlorite ):

SUSCEPTIBILITY TO DISINFECTANTS: Ebola virus is susceptible to sodium hypochlorite, lipid solvents, phenolic disinfectants, peracetic acid, methyl alcohol, ether, sodium deoxycholate, 2% glutaraldehyde, 0.25% Triton X-100, β-propiolactone, 3% acetic acid (pH 2.5), formaldehyde and paraformaldehyde, and detergents such as SDS (20, 21, 31-34).

PHYSICAL INACTIVATION: Ebola are moderately thermolabile and can be inactivated by heating for 30 minutes to 60 minutes at 60ºC [140ºF], boiling for 5 minutes, gamma irradiation (1.2 x106 rads to 1.27 x106 rads), and/or UV radiation (3, 6, 20, 32, 33).

SURVIVAL OUTSIDE HOST: The virus can survive in liquid or dried material for a number of days (23). Infectivity is found to be stable at room temperature or at 4°C [39°F] for several days, and indefinitely stable at -70°C [--94°F] (6, 20). Infectivity can be preserved by lyophilisation.

Public Health Agency of Canada - EBOLA VIRUS

.

Check this out!

FDA has AUTHORIZED use of an unapproved Ebola virus test under a special emergency-use provision, although efforts to develop a vaccine for the deadly illness are unlikely to bear fruit until 2015, officials say.

The test-tube diagnostic test was DEVELOPED by the U.S. military and is used to detect the Zaire strain of Ebola, which has infected at least 1,711 and killed 932 in West Africa.

"The test is designed for use in individuals, including Department of Defense personnel and responders, who may be at risk of infection as a result of the outbreak," FDA spokeswoman Stephanie Yao said in a statement.

latimes.com

I am gonna post the the other at about vaccine in the thread i started re vaccine.......

Pax

originally posted by: tetra50
@destiny

good information on a very bad thing. thanks.
it worries me a great deal, but my thought is it's a ringing bell we cannot unring. so, what to do.
as everyone else said, be prepared.
But, can anyone ever really be prepared for something like that?
tetra

eta: anything and everything I say is probably speculation. and that's likely fact.

Look at Africa...they are able to handle it well...not. Nurses on strike, hospitals full of dead and dying no one to care from them. It wouldn't take long to overwhelm our resources too.

Des

SUPER-DUPER SPECULATION: When we saw Brantly transported to Emory, that was not him. He was either transported at another time, by other means, or to another place.

Here.

Fact: Public Health Agency of Canada Pathogen Safety Data Sheet, Ebola
PHAC PSDS Ebola

originally posted by: loam
SUPER-DUPER SPECULATION: when we saw Brantly transported to Emory, that was not him. He was either transported at another time, by other means, or to another place.

I agree. when the huge media uproar was made about the lax procedure when whomever was transported to Emory...they put on a better show with Nurse Nancy yesterday...gurney and all.

Des

First, pardon me if I'm uninformed in the questions I'm going to ask. I've been in the hospital myself while this has been going on, so I'm behind on the info.

Now, as to my question, why would it be someone other than Brantley?
tetra
thanks in advance for any answers

Fact: You cannot trust the infected.
Fact: Ebola has an R nought of 1-4.
Fact: An R nought above 1 indicates the disease 'will' spread.
Fact: I loves me some doom porn.

Opinion: as the infection spreads to more people
Opinion: the longer the infected live
Opinion: the greater chance the virus has to mutate
Opinion: and become airborne
Opinion: increasing the R nought to upwards of 25

Conspiracy Theory: The vast majority of relevant facts are being downplayed
Conspiracy Theory: The 0bama administration allowed travel as a distraction

Are we having fun yet? I am.

a reply to: Snarl

You cannot trust the infected?
How do you know?

What does infection with Ebola have to do with character, credibility, or one's trustability?


Fact: Such a bizarre comment does not even warrant the brand of speculation.
Being an opinion, of course, which doesn't make it any less true. But at least I've been warned about your particular filter of factual….
Opinion: You probably can't trust anyone anyway, so the point is moot.

originally posted by: tetra50
a reply to: Snarl

You cannot trust the infected?
How do you know?

What does infection with Ebola have to do with character, credibility, or one's trustability?

Because the symptoms of ebola are basically the same as the flu. Most people who get sick will not think of ebola first.

Des

a reply to: Destinyone

I'm afraid I'm still not getting it. You mean, then, trusting them as in trusting they either know or don't they have ebola?
I've certainly considered it a possibility in my own current health crisis. But I assume after many blood tests, I wouldn't have been released from the hospital if I had it.

@Paxnatus: Is the test available to the public, and do you know where it can be purchased?
thanks.
tetra

Fact: a host is still contagious, for as long as two months after the virus has run its course, providing s/he survived the infection.

SPECULATION: The current virus might be transmitted by indirect means, not just close personal contact with an infected patient's body fluids.

FACT: Here is what I see as the problem. There is a distinction between droplet transmission and airborne transmission. The CDC describes droplet transmission as follows:

I.B.3.b. Droplet transmission:

Droplet transmission is, technically, a form of contact transmission, and some infectious agents transmitted by the droplet route also may be transmitted by the direct and indirect contact routes.

...

The maximum distance for droplet transmission is currently unresolved, although pathogens transmitted by the droplet route have not been transmitted through the air over long distances, in contrast to the airborne pathogens discussed below. Historically, the area of defined risk has been a distance of less than 3 feet around the patient and is based on epidemiologic and simulated studies of selected infections 103, 104.

CDC Link.

Now the CDC proceeds to say:

Droplet size is another variable under discussion. Droplets traditionally have been defined as being greater than 5 μm in size. Droplet nuclei, particles arising from desiccation of suspended droplets, have been associated with airborne transmission and defined as less than 5 μm in size...

Observations of particle dynamics have demonstrated that a range of droplet sizes, including those with diameters of 30μm or greater, can remain suspended in the air. The behavior of droplets and droplet nuclei affect recommendations for preventing transmission. Whereas fine airborne particles containing pathogens that are able to remain infective may transmit infections over long distances, requiring AIIR to prevent its dissemination within a facility; organisms transmitted by the droplet route do not remain infective over long distances, and therefore do not require special air handling and ventilation.

So infectious droplet range is under question. (I'll come back to this.)

The CDC defines airborne transmission as follows:

I.B.3.c. Airborne transmission:

Airborne transmission occurs by dissemination of either airborne droplet nuclei or small particles in the respirable size range containing infectious agents that remain infective over time and distance (e.g., spores of Aspergillus spp, and Mycobacterium tuberculosis).

Note that airborne transmission involves droplets too. So the distinction hinges on infectious droplets under 5 micrometers that remain infective over time and distance.

First, let's cover the distance issue.

In April of this year, a study published in the Journal of Fluid Mechanics, addressed this very issue:

Droplets from coughs and sneezes travel farther than you think

It is common knowledge that when we cough or sneeze, we should cover our mouth and nose with a tissue to prevent germs from becoming airborne. Now, new research from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology suggests this instruction is more important than ever; they found that droplets from coughs or sneezes can travel up to 200 times farther than previously thought.

...

The team found that, contrary to previous beliefs, each droplet from a cough or sneeze is connected through interaction with a gas cloud.

...

Droplets that are 100 micrometers in diameter were found to travel five times farther than past estimates, while droplets 10 micrometers in diameter were found to travel 200 times farther. In addition, the team found that droplets less that 50 micrometers in size are often able to stay airborne long enough to enter ceiling ventilation units.

That certainly calls into question the three feet language I've see thrown about in the media. Moreover, the question of "what happens to pathogens in the droplets carried by the gas cloud" is still under investigation.

Now, let's cover the time issue.

SURVIVAL OUTSIDE HOST: The virus can survive in liquid or dried material for a number of days (23). Infectivity is found to be stable at room temperature or at 4°C for several days, and indefinitely stable at -70°C (6, 20). Infectivity can be preserved by lyophilisation.

Source.

So Ebola can live outside a host in liquid AND dried material at room temperature for several days.

Finally, let's discuss the size of the Ebola virus:

It is an elongated filamentous molecule, which can vary between 800 - 1000 nm in length, and can reach up to14000 nm long (due to concatamerization) with a uniform diameter of 80 nm.

Source.

Incidentally, 1 micrometer equals 1000 nanometers, which is relevant when you consider the less than 5 micrometer airborne distinction described above.

Now all of this is not to say the current Ebola crisis we are facing is in fact airborne.

But it is meant to warn against DEFINITIVE pronouncements that it is not or can't be.

Wow i wish we could stop the fact speculation thing already. Its really annoying. I mean we are already on ATS, so everything's should be researched and such. Links and the like.

originally posted by: tetra50
a reply to: Destinyone

I'm afraid I'm still not getting it. You mean, then, trusting them as in trusting they either know or don't they have ebola?
I've certainly considered it a possibility in my own current health crisis. But I assume after many blood tests, I wouldn't have been released from the hospital if I had it.

I'm glad you are better. I could safely assume if you did have ebola, you wouldn't be posting here now. It sounds like you were really sick. I'm so glad you are on the mend.

I think that comment was based on the American who died in Nigeria, Sawyer who lied that he never was exposed to ebola when he had just left his sister's house who had died of ebola. He traveled through 4 airports, 3 connecting flights and got off the plane sick in Nigeria, and died 2 days later. He lied because he was trying to get back to MI in the U.S. to attend his daughter's B-day party.

Because of his lie, one Dr. who treated him is now dead, one nurse is dead, and 70 people have come down with the symptoms of ebola. They said there are a possible 30,000 people he exposed in his travels.

Des