Putin BANS agricultural imports from sanctioning countries for 1 year

originally posted by: DJW001
Just checking in and bumping this thread. Here is the latest data on the "fruits" of Putin's sanctions:

www.tradingeconomics.com...

The rate of inflation of food prices has doubled since the beginning of the year. Good going, Vlad!

I was wondering if its continuing to get worse it is. Its also just not food either though food is being hit the hardest but in other industries imports are important including manufacturing. What can happen is there is a tipping point where inflation is guaranteed to crash an economy and unstoppable. Russia isnt to that point yet butif things continue it wont be more than a year.

a reply to: dragonridr

Simply put: if the price of food increases 10% per month, it will double in less than a year. At what point do you suppose there will be rioting in the streets? You can actually create a graph that predicts that point. Less than a year, I should think.

originally posted by: dragonridr

originally posted by: DJW001
Just checking in and bumping this thread. Here is the latest data on the "fruits" of Putin's sanctions:

www.tradingeconomics.com...

The rate of inflation of food prices has doubled since the beginning of the year. Good going, Vlad!

I was wondering if its continuing to get worse it is. Its also just not food either though food is being hit the hardest but in other industries imports are important including manufacturing. What can happen is there is a tipping point where inflation is guaranteed to crash an economy and unstoppable. Russia isnt to that point yet butif things continue it wont be more than a year.

The food inflation will be from currency exchange rate, rather than the fact source is changed.

The West can manipulate the currency exchange rate in the short term.

Russia can produce more locally and import more from central Asia, Iran etc. to offset this.

But the easiest is Russia can print more currency and increase the wages to offset exchange rate. The savings will be affected but most people (90%) care more about wages than money in the bank.

Russia can simply link the wages to US dollar. It can afford to do so as it is a net exporter.

India has been devaluing its currency by printing and increasing salaries for last 30 years (since I understood) and it never affected India's economy.

Curbs on trade can reduce Russia's GDP growth but cannot create panic on the street.

Russia with more than twice the land mass of USA and half the population can definitely feed its population. The Western audience is terribly misinformed.

There may be a deficit of grain, fruits and vegetables in Russia as the warmer areas of USSR have become independent states. However not all former SSRs have stopped trading with Russia. Russia can import grain from multiple sources - several Asian and South American countries.

Lower trade with EU will definitely benefit Asian countries as Russian traders will lift stuff from China and India etc.

The biggest issue remains gas. Russia has to build loading facilities and pipelines for evacuation of gas from its east coast. Russian gas will most likely give great leverage to China.

So while it may be true that Russian economy may stagnate, it is unlikely to go down.

Russia can sustain its economy due to heavy export basket which allows it to import stuff it needs.

The greatly enhanced military production in Russia to meet own needs will also bump up the GDP. Russian rearmament program is quite significant and may be adding significant number of local jobs.

a reply to: GargIndia

Where to begin? I suggest you crack open an Economics textbooks. Russia's demand for food is inflexible, meaning that it has no choice but to pay anything that the sellers ask. Even if other countries do not gouge, which they will, the added transportation costs will drive the price up.

Pegging the ruble to the dollar would be humiliating for Putin. Remember all that talk about replacing the dollar with some sort of BRIC currency?

Russia's breadbasket used to be Ukraine, that is why Ukraine's independence hurts Russia so much. Only a small percentage of its remaining land is arable, and few of its residents have any desire to farm.

Are you suggesting that Putin print more money? It was runaway inflation under Yeltsin that brought Putin to power!

a reply to: DJW001

Where to begin? I suggest you crack open an Economics textbooks. Russia's demand for food is inflexible, meaning that it has no choice but to pay anything that the sellers ask.

just curious...what do you know of russia's ability to produce food /?

a reply to: hopenotfeariswhatweneed

Although Russia is vast, only about 20% of its land is arable:



www.mapsofworld.com...

Agricultural production has improved since the collapse of the Soviet Union, and Russia has increased its exports to world markets. It is still highly dependent on imports for many items outside of the bare staples, being one of the largest importers of meat and sugar, and it is prone to sudden shocks caused by inclement weather, fires, etc. Historically, Russia has suffered from famines, so increased food prices lead to political instability. Further reference:

www.fao.org...

a reply to: DJW001

Want to know whats really going on in Russia with food.For one they have been going through a severe drought.This is causing internal grain shortages as farmers struggle to meet local grain contracts and food needs. The Kremlin launched a five-year program called “Accelerated Livestock Development” that started in 2007 saw around $11 billion in state and public funding invested in dairy production nationwide. But milk output rose less than 3 percent and they still have to import most of their dairy products. People dont realize how badly the Russian economy is dependent on the west. They have very little production of electronics even say car companies in Russia are owned by in part by the big three auto companies even worse they moved plants there like Ford Motor Company ZAO in Saint peters berg. Most people employed in the automotive industry work for US companies. Most of Russian industry is merely assembly plants with actually parts being made in western countries. Even there aircraft engines currently without aid from Ukraine or the west are impossible to build. Russsia would take a decade to get there manufacturing to be independent.

With that comes the problem of the nature of Russian society itself … does not foster innovation that is economically successful.But one industry which never fails them is oil and gas but the dirty little secret there is it relies heavily on foreign investment.For example the $700 million exploratory drilling project in the Arctic Ocean site overseen by the state-owned oil giant Rosneft. Guess who is actually doing the drilling yes its Exxon Mobil Corp. And Without western help oil production will drastically decrease. Bottom line is Russia has two paths both will be hard one being short term hardship meaning for about a decade Russia is going to slide backward until they get there industries up and going. Or the alternative is all those Russians arent going to want to give up there iphones and laptops and all those other neat gadgets available though import and in that case we have a Russian revolution. Well another one anyway seems like there is one every generation?? The out come with that could be total collapse of the economy because the only thing saving it is huge investments by the Russian government.

a reply to: dragonridr

Oil which brings in the vast revenues can get hit max 25 %, and while big, Russia can cope with that. China can deliver electronics, and with iPhony 6 easily bending Huawei isn`t such a bad choice now.China is able to deliver all the Fruits and vegetables, Brazil is able to provide lots of dairy, etc., and Russia has the money to pay for food.

Japan is stagnant since the 90s, and Europe is also now for years, so Russia can also cope with that.

You do realize it`s not only hurting Russia but lots of other countries too, don`t you ?

Western sanctions, Russia’s retaliation to deal hard blow on world economy - Kazakh FM

He recalled that the countries involved in the campaign of sanctions accounted for 60% of the world’s GDP.

“This will certainly cause a disastrous effect on global development and economic growth,” he warned.

Source

See, it`s not only hurting Russia, but also other countries.

So why are you so desperately trying to proof it`s only Russia who gets hurt, while it`s not only them ?

9.5 mil. farmers in the EU are getting hurt badly and there are already companies going bust in the EU right now because of the sanctions.

originally posted by: BornAgainAlien
9.5 mil. farmers in the EU are getting hurt badly and there are already companies going bust in the EU right now because of the sanctions.

No there is not.

post your source.

originally posted by: Xcathdra

originally posted by: BornAgainAlien
9.5 mil. farmers in the EU are getting hurt badly and there are already companies going bust in the EU right now because of the sanctions.

No there is not.

post your source.

Why ask for source, you already know I have always been able to provide a source with my claims ?

But here you go :

Russian Food Imports Ban to Hurt 9.5 Mln European Farmers

Russia’s restrictions on food imports from the European Union can potentially hurt some 9.5 million European farmers, according to the estimates voiced Wednesday by the European Parliament.

“The overall restrictions currently applied by Russia could jeopardize 5 billion euro worth of trade and affect the incomes of 9.5 million EU farmers. The value of banned fisheries products amounts to almost 144 million euro,” the European Parliament said in a press release.

Source

a reply to: BornAgainAlien

Not even the Russian website you link to claims that any businesses are "going bust because of the sanctions."

originally posted by: DJW001
a reply to: BornAgainAlien

Not even the Russian website you link to claims that any businesses are "going bust because of the sanctions."

And you taught I wasn`t able to provide that proof too ?

Source

originally posted by: BornAgainAlien

originally posted by: DJW001
a reply to: BornAgainAlien

Not even the Russian website you link to claims that any businesses are "going bust because of the sanctions."

And you taught I wasn`t able to provide that proof too ?

Source

Broken link. Try again.

a reply to: DJW001

Link is working fine for me.

a reply to: BornAgainAlien

The price received by growers for their apples and pears, has dropped from 50 cents to 25 cents. According GroentenFruit House for an unknown number of Dutch growers already filed for bankruptcy.

Your source

"An unknown number" could be zero.

Time that Putin put more sanctions on the west for giving money to the FSA who turned into the ISIL and for having Nazi's in the Ukraine kill people in the east of the country.

Putin is not attacking people all over the world but we know who is and yes its the american tax payers then get to pick up the bill.

This all goes back to 9/11 and most logical people now understand how towers can fall at free faill speed and it has nothing to do with a man in a cave living on the other side of the world.

a reply to: VirusGuard

There is no advantage is putting reverse-sanctions.

Better way is to establish alternatives.

Life has not stopped in Moscow due to sanctions. May be super-wealthy are feeling the pinch but nothing that causes riots on the streets. I think Putin has the correct advice - just ignore.

a reply to: VirusGuard

Putin is not attacking people all over the world but we know who is and yes its the american tax payers then get to pick up the bill.

America didn't invade and annex Crimea, and they didn't send troops and military weapons to Ukraine...but we know who did.

To all ATS, do not show data on the effect of said sanctions.
The most important things is the moment the sanctions were announced with vigor,determination,charisma and confidence.
That is how this works, if you do a follow up on it you will be disappointed...and we all know how most ATS members react when disappointed.