Ebola - my visual charts & projections based on WHO data

originally posted by: Bishop2199
What do you guys know of this map? Is this reputable?

Ebola Case Map

If this can be trusted, there are many more possible cases being monitored, in the United States, than we have been told.

So long . . . and thanks for all the fish!

Bishop

I had mentioned doing this in another thread a couple for weeks ago.......brilliant if it is done right and honest. I was hoping it would be an ATS member. Our community is very unique and smart. Tear things apart and find the real truth......this is ATS.

WHO released another Ebola update yesterday, November 7, 2014. According to WHO, through November 4, 2014 (November 3, 2014 for Guinea), there were:

13,268 reported Ebola cases
4,960 reported Ebola deaths

I have updated the charts with the new data:









The numbers do not include the Congo, as that is allegedly an unrelated outbreak.

Ebola data reported is always subject to change as cases and deaths are reclassified, as data sources change, or as reporting methods change. These charts rely on the reported numbers, but the charts and projections can only be as accurate as the data they are based on. Please be aware that there are a number of possible issues with reported data.

1. WHO,the CDC, Doctors Without Borders (MSF), etc. have all stated that actual cases and deaths "vastly" outnumber reported figures. Most believe there are at least 2 to 5 times as many cases and deaths. This seems fairly likely given the reputation of the organizations or people saying this.

2. There have recently been a number of sudden large decreases in officially reported cases and deaths. It is unclear if this indicates an improvement or an inability to keep up. A sudden improvement seems unlikely, but let's hope.

3. Many countries have clamped down on journalists reporting on Ebola. Liberia has put laws or regulations in place to severely restrict journalists. Sierra Leone just put a journalist in prison who had been reporting on the Ebola epidemic there. In the USA, Forbes recently reported:

The Associated Press and other press outlets have agreed not to report on suspected cases of Ebola in the United States until a positive viral RNA test is completed.

4. There are many different theories or opinions circulating regarding Ebola that differ from the 'official' reporting of the epidemic. Some believe that there is no such thing as Ebola. Some that whatever is currently spreading is not Ebola. Some that there is no outbreak of anything at all. Some that people are purposely being infected with Ebola or something that is being called Ebola. Some that the Ebola epidemic is part of a depopulation plan. I really do not know whether any of these beliefs have merit or not. There are certainly many strange things that go on in the world, so who knows?

The same disclaimers and references apply to all of these charts:

Charts and future projections were done by me, not by WHO, except in cases where it is stated that a chart includes WHO projections. I am not an Ebola expert, epidemiologist, virologist, or MD, but I manually compiled the data used to create these graphs from news updates on the following websites:

SOURCE: WHO website 1

SOURCE: WHO website 2

SOURCE: WHO website 3

SOURCE: WHO website 4

SOURCE: CDC website 1

SOURCE: The New England Journal of Medicine

SOURCE: Guinea Situation Reports (posted on Humanitarian Response)
[NOTE: Situation Reports from Guinea are in French.]

SOURCE: Liberia Situation Reports

SOURCE: Sierra Leone Situation Reports

Please do not do anything you might regret based on charts or projections. Hopefully efforts to contain, quarantine, treat, prevent, or cure Ebola will eventually be successful, and hopefully sooner rather than later.

WHO released another Ebola update today, November 12, 2014. According to WHO, through November 9, 2014 (November 8, 2014 for Liberia), there were:

14,098 reported Ebola cases
5,160 reported Ebola deaths

I have updated the charts with the new data:









The numbers do not include the Congo, as that is allegedly an unrelated outbreak.

These charts rely on the reported numbers. Reported Ebola data is subject to change as cases and deaths are reclassified, as data sources change, or as reporting methods change.

The charts and projections can only be as accurate as the data they are based on. Please be aware there are a number of possible issues:

1. WHO,the CDC, Doctors Without Borders (MSF), etc. have stated that actual cases and deaths "vastly" outnumber reported figures, possibly by at least 2 to 5 times. This seems likely given the reputation of those saying this.

2. There have recently been a number of sudden large decreases in officially reported cases and deaths. It is unclear if this indicates improvement or inability to keep up. A sudden improvement seems unlikely, but let's hope.

3. Many countries have clamped down on journalists reporting on Ebola. Liberia has put laws or regulations in place to severely restrict journalists. Sierra Leone put a journalist in prison who had been reporting on the Ebola epidemic there. In the USA, Forbes recently reported:

The Associated Press and other press outlets have agreed not to report on suspected cases of Ebola in the United States until a positive viral RNA test is completed.

4. There are theories regarding Ebola that differ from the 'official' reports. Some believe there is no such thing as Ebola or that what is spreading is not Ebola. Some believe there is no outbreak at all. Some believe people are purposely being infected for economic or depopulation plans. I do not know if there is any truth to any of these beliefs, it can be a strange world.

The same disclaimers and references apply to all of these charts:

Charts and future projections were done by me, not by WHO, except in cases where it is stated that a chart includes WHO projections. I am not an Ebola expert, epidemiologist, virologist, or MD, but I manually compiled the data used to create these graphs from news updates on the following websites:

SOURCE: WHO website 1

SOURCE: WHO website 2

SOURCE: WHO website 3

SOURCE: WHO website 4

SOURCE: CDC website 1

SOURCE: The New England Journal of Medicine

SOURCE: Guinea Situation Reports (posted on Humanitarian Response)
[NOTE: Situation Reports from Guinea are in French.]

SOURCE: Liberia Situation Reports

SOURCE: Sierra Leone Situation Reports

Please do not do anything you might regret based on charts or projections. Hopefully efforts to contain, quarantine, treat, prevent, or cure Ebola will eventually be successful, and hopefully sooner rather than later.

a reply to: ikonoklast

It appears things seem to be leveling out. Do you concur?

Granted, we are still seeing a progression of the virus, but it seems to be slowing down and, as a result, pushing things out to later dates.

So long . . . and thanks for all the fish!

Bishop

a reply to: Bishop2199

The problem is what is the maximum capacity they can test per day?

Because that could give the illusion of leveling out when in actual fact they are just not capable of testing any more per day.

I am not saying that is the case but it has to be considered.

originally posted by: Bishop2199
a reply to: ikonoklast

It appears things seem to be leveling out. Do you concur?

Granted, we are still seeing a progression of the virus, but it seems to be slowing down and, as a result, pushing things out to later dates.

New cases seem to be leveling out a bit in Liberia. At first it looked to everyone (incluing WHO) like that might be an inability to keep up, as joho99 mentioned. Now WHO and MSF (Doctors Without Borders) are saying there do seem to be fewer new cases in some areas in Liberia.

WHO is still cautioning that it's not under control. And I don't think MSF is active in as many places in Liberia as they are in some other countries, so they may only be seeing very limited parts of Liberia. I think it's hard to say yet, but hopefully it is a good sign and the start of improvements in Liberia.

Looking at overall totals, including the increase in the number of days it takes to double, the slowdown seems to be mostly due to the reported leveling out in Liberia. The spread in Guinea and Sierra Leone continues at approximately the same pace as it has been. Liberia was previously the hardest hit, but now Sierra Leone seems likely to overtake Liberia if nothing changes.

I'd like to see cases drop below projections, but at least they are trending along the lower edge of the projection curves.

Much of the decreases in reported deaths is due to sudden large decreases in reported cumulative death totals in Liberia and Sierra Leone. Some of that is due to changes in how deaths are reported and the removal of many deaths that were suspected to be Ebola but were not tested. Interestingly, the government of Sierra Leone is reporting hundreds more deaths than WHO is reporting.

If it were not for the sudden major adjustments to the numbers of deaths, the reported deaths would be much closer to the lowest projection curves, though still trending slightly below the lowest projections. So hopefully that's a good sign, too.

WHO released another Ebola update yesterday, November 14, 2014. According to WHO, through November 11, 2014 (November 10, 2014 for Liberia), there were:

14,413 reported Ebola cases
5,177 reported Ebola deaths

I have updated the charts with the new data:









The numbers do not include the Congo, as that was allegedly an unrelated outbreak.

These charts rely on the reported numbers. Reported Ebola data is subject to change as cases and deaths are reclassified, as data sources change, or as reporting methods change.

The charts and projections can only be as accurate as the data they are based on. Please be aware there are a number of possible issues:

1. WHO,the CDC, Doctors Without Borders (MSF), etc. have stated that actual cases and deaths "vastly" outnumber reported figures, possibly by at least 2 to 5 times.

2. There have recently been sudden large decreases in officially reported cases and deaths. It is unclear if this indicates improvement or inability to keep up. A sudden improvement seems unlikely, but let's hope.

3. Many countries have clamped down on journalists reporting on Ebola. Liberia put laws or regulations in place to restrict journalists and Sierra Leone put a journalist in prison. In the USA, Forbes recently reported:

The Associated Press and other press outlets have agreed not to report on suspected cases of Ebola in the United States until a positive viral RNA test is completed.

4. There are theories regarding Ebola that differ from the 'official' reports. Some believe there is no such thing as Ebola or that what is spreading is not Ebola. Some believe there is no outbreak at all. Some believe people are purposely being infected for economic or depopulation plans. I do not know if there is any truth to any of these beliefs, it can be a strange world.

The same disclaimers and references apply to all of these charts:

Charts and future projections were done by me, not by WHO, except in cases where it is stated that a chart includes WHO projections. I am not an Ebola expert, epidemiologist, virologist, or MD, but I manually compiled the data used to create these graphs from news updates on the following websites:

SOURCE: WHO website 1

SOURCE: WHO website 2

SOURCE: WHO website 3

SOURCE: WHO website 4

SOURCE: CDC website 1

SOURCE: The New England Journal of Medicine

SOURCE: Guinea Situation Reports (posted on Humanitarian Response)
[NOTE: Situation Reports from Guinea are in French.]

SOURCE: Liberia Situation Reports

SOURCE: Sierra Leone Situation Reports

Please do not do anything you might regret based on charts or projections. Hopefully efforts to contain, quarantine, treat, prevent, or cure Ebola will eventually be successful, and hopefully sooner rather than later.

a reply to: ikonoklast

Thank you so much for your updates (and all your work!). I suspect Liberia may be in a calm period before another surge (like what happened in Sierra Leone) and still think we won't know which way this is really going til mid- to end December. What do you think?


S&

a reply to: soficrow

Thanks, and you're welcome.

I think it's still very early in the epidemic but it's already reached a size where it will be very difficult to control. If the latest numbers from WHO are anywhere near correct and it continues doubling at about the same rate as currently for the near future, there will be 14,413 new cases by Christmas. Contacts that need to be traced and monitored could easily be in the hundreds of thousands.

At some point the number of contacts to trace and monitor, the number of cases to isolate and treat, and the number of bodies to bury safely could become so great that it would be impossible to control. I'm fairly sure that's why WHO, the CDC, and the UN have all said the window is closing if it can't be brought under control soon. They've got less than 2 weeks to hit the goal of getting 70% of all cases into beds in treatment centers by December 1, 2014.

a reply to: ikonoklast



Ok this is a conspiracy sight so here I go...........When the Ebola Czar took over things changed and the numbers started falling..........Something stinks about this whole thing.



I believe they are hiding the real facts about this and it is far from over. I believe the new czar used his power to silence the media and the coverage out of West Africa...........I believe it is all lies at this point.

Adding more news on 'Mali'.

600 in Mali under Ebola watch

Health Minister Ousmane Kone, who accompanied the president on the trip, said “577 people were under daily observation”, up from Sunday’s figure of 442 people who were being monitored for Ebola symptoms.

Teams of investigators have been tracking health workers and scouring Bamako and the imam’s village of Kouremale, which straddles the Mali-Guinea border, for people who could have been exposed.

www.nation.co.ke...

This could get out of hand in 'Mali' if its not nipped in the bud.

a reply to: SubTruth

The apparent changes in what is reported and how it is reported in the USA since the new Ebola czar was appointed are just the tip of the iceberg. In some countries in Africa, journalists have been arrested, newspapers have been closed, and permission from the government is even required just to report on Ebola or interview healthcare workers. Here is just one news article talking about this:

Ebola crisis 'being used to attack media freedom'

This is why I expanded some of what I say in the disclaimers below the chart updates now. The charts reflect the "official" reported numbers, and where they are likely headed if nothing changes. But who knows how much to trust the reported numbers?

originally posted by: TruthxIsxInxThexMist
Adding more news on 'Mali'.

600 in Mali under Ebola watch...

This could get out of hand in 'Mali' if its not nipped in the bud.

Thanks for the news!

That's a pretty big list, I hope they are able to nip it in the bud.

WHO released another Ebola update today, November 19, 2014. According to WHO, through November 16, 2014 (November 15, 2014 for Liberia), there were:

15,145 reported Ebola cases
5,420 reported Ebola deaths

I have updated the charts with the new data:









The numbers do not include the Congo, as that was allegedly an unrelated outbreak.

These charts rely on the reported numbers. Reported Ebola data is subject to change as cases and deaths are reclassified, as data sources change, or as reporting methods change.

The charts and projections can only be as accurate as the data they are based on. Please be aware there are a number of possible issues:

1. WHO,the CDC, Doctors Without Borders (MSF), etc. have in the past stated that actual cases and deaths "vastly" outnumber reported figures, possibly by at least 2 to 5 times.

2. There have recently been sudden large decreases in officially reported cases and deaths. It is unclear if this indicates improvement or inability to keep up. A sudden improvement seems unlikely, but let's hope.

3. Some of the countries most affected have clamped down on journalists, in some cases imprisoning journalists and even closing a newspaper. In the USA, Forbes recently reported:

The Associated Press and other press outlets have agreed not to report on suspected cases of Ebola in the United States until a positive viral RNA test is completed.

Update: Forbes has since edited the article above and they now link a statement from the Associated Press.

4. There are theories regarding Ebola that differ from the 'official' reports. Some believe there is no such thing as Ebola or that what is spreading is not Ebola. Some believe there is no outbreak at all. Some believe people are purposely being infected for economic or depopulation plans. I do not know if there is any truth to any of these beliefs, it can be a strange world.

The same disclaimers and references apply to all of these charts:

Charts and future projections were done by me, not by WHO, except in cases where it is stated that a chart includes WHO projections. I am not an Ebola expert, epidemiologist, virologist, or MD, but I manually compiled the data used to create these graphs from news updates on the following websites:

SOURCE: WHO website 1

SOURCE: WHO website 2

SOURCE: WHO website 3

SOURCE: WHO website 4

SOURCE: CDC website 1

SOURCE: The New England Journal of Medicine

SOURCE: Guinea Situation Reports (posted on Humanitarian Response)
[NOTE: Situation Reports from Guinea are in French.]

SOURCE: Liberia Situation Reports

SOURCE: Mali Ministry of Sanitation and Hygiene
[NOTE: Situation Reports from Mali are in French.]

SOURCE: Sierra Leone Situation Reports

Please do not do anything you might regret based on charts or projections. Hopefully efforts to contain, quarantine, treat, prevent, or cure Ebola will eventually be successful, and hopefully sooner rather than later.

Thank you SO much for continuing your updated charts.
They seem to always be spot on in regards to the limited
information you receive. I hate to say that I do not
understand some of them therefore I am always very
appreciative of your commentaries at the end.

Cheers
Ektar

a reply to: Ektar

You're welcome, thanks for the feedback! Maybe I can add some more commentary in future updates, because a couple people have said they don't always completely understand the charts.

In the meantime, I think most people can probably get much of what they want to know from Charts 1 and 2 each time. Those are the charts that just graph total reported cases and deaths. The only difference between them is that in chart 2, the left axis or scale is in powers of 10.

A lot of the other charts evolved from trying to project the data out or to present the data in different ways, sometimes by special request of people who wanted to see how certain data looked when it was graphed.

Guinea is the one that is bothering me.

They have to put the least effort and resources into Guinea.

If they are failing in Guinea then i can not see how they will stop it in Liberia and Sierra Leone.

It would be smart to just go ahead and assume the worst. There is no vaccine, no cure. After the man Duncan perished the news became very quite. I subscribed to the Wall Street Journal because they give more news to an educated non panic crowd. The average people were panicking and acting differently. The authority people obviously didn't like the effects on the stock market, etc... Time reveals all, just wait and you will see.

There was a plane that landed a couple of weeks ago from Washington in Columbia SC because a person had a nose bleed. That story was buried after that afternoon. Some lady died in NYC yesterday at a hair salon with blood everywhere.
She was on a self monitoring list. So use hand sanitizer a lot, and just stand back from people you don't know. It is just smart. People have become over stimulated and lost interest in this news.

Nothing to say.

Accidental post.

I am a data analyst and I definitely appreciate your steadfastness in continuing with your updates. I began a similar endeavor but became too frustrated with the data in that the data coming from the WHO was inconsistent historically for the manner in which it was reported. Initially it appeared the WHO numbers were only reporting confirmed cases/deaths, but now they categorize into probable & suspected as well—its challenging to identify trends when you aren’t comparing apples to apples. What troubles me more, however, is the unknown manner in which they are deriving their data. It took a couple months to begin receiving numbers from the three countries consistently, which suggests they may be relying on the individual countries to report their numbers and if the country decides that a PR campaign is more important than facts the numbers could be essentially useless. I am doubtful that the WHO audits the data they are being given and unless they have people on the ground trained to report numbers in the exact same manner across all regions, we will likely never get true numbers whether by design or out of sheer incompetence.

Additionally, the mortality rate in reported numbers has dropped in recent weeks, which troubles me. The rate of mortality from reported numbers in all three countries remained above 50% through October but is now dropping. You could suggest that this is because of the increased supportive care being provided to infected patients, but if you look at the map illustrating the WHO response plan, they have barely begun meeting their goal for adding beds to address patient care and I would suspect existing hospitals continue to be stretched past their available resources.

To say we are not receiving the truth is an understatement, especially with the media blackout that was designed to protect us from unnecessary panic seems to also mean that our only source of information is a corrupt global organization and a non-profit that is not present in all areas of infection (and is also beyond its available resources). Do I think its cause for panic, rumor, and innuendo? No, we saw what happens with the US MSM circus but to go from global panic to barely a trickle of information just seems off.