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originally posted by: roadgravel
I am waiting for the day that aliens arrive and tell us how we have the 'facts' of the universe all wrong. Much like the flat Earth and Earth concentric solar system days.
originally posted by: WalterWhite
originally posted by: roadgravel
I am waiting for the day that aliens arrive and tell us how we have the 'facts' of the universe all wrong. Much like the flat Earth and Earth concentric solar system days.
That makes both of us... I wouldn't be surprised if eventually aliens arrive and show us that we have a lot wrong about what is "fact" for us earthlings.
Now it is suggested as a reasonable proposition that intelligent life in the galaxy is very rare, perhaps so rare that we are alone. Can we prove that this is not the case? No.
Please be kind
originally posted by: amazing
Okay, now I’m not a mathematician or an astronomer but here are my numbers. Please be kind. This is just an estimate and theory and a posibility, but my numbers are all conservative.
On November 4, 2013, astronomers reported, based on Kepler space mission data, that there could be as many as 40 billion Earth-sizedplanets orbiting in the habitable zones of sun-like stars and red dwarf stars within the Milky Way Galaxy.
According to the best estimates of astronomers there are at least one hundred billion galaxies in the observable universe. They've counted the galaxies in a particular region, and multiplied this up to estimate the number for the whole universe, but that’s a conservative estimate because some scientists say it could be 500 billion galaxies! And that's just the observable universe!
I don’t think I’m being off the mark to extrapolate that to estimate that there are probably 40 billion possible life bearing planets in each galaxy ...therefore.
X is the number of the possible habitable planets in the universe. G is the number of Galaxies in the Universe. And P is the number of habitable planets in each Galaxy.
Therefore X=G X P That number is 4 sextillion. That's a 4 with 21 zero's after it. If I multiply that by 1% that leaves me with 40 quadrillion possible planets in our Universe that could hold life. I think 1% is a low estimate and we’re not even talking about moons. We guess that there are several moons in our own solar system that could harbor life.
Now it took 4.6 billions years for life to evolve to our current state on earth. I think it’s fair to assume that, for other planets with life forms. Some scientists estimate that there are many galaxies older than the milky way and others think they’re all about the same age. But give or take a hundred thousand or a million years of evolution in all of those possible 40 quadrillion planets with advanced life forms on it and there is a possibility of that millions or billions or even quadrillions of them have civilizations millions of years more advanced than us.
Again this is just a possibility. A theory but it’s based on Math and science. Not saying I ‘m right and there is no concrete proof, as of yet, but you must be open to the possibility. Yes? 40 Quadrillion is a huge number!!
originally posted by: glend
More likely they'd use their huge space telescopes to examine planets for signs of life and only send probes to the best candidates. With something like 1-2 million stars within 500 light years one would hope they'd find at least a few candidates. If they could build probes that can constantly accelerate at 1G they'd be able to reach them all within 8-10 years (probe time).
originally posted by: ZetaRediculian
a reply to: amazing
Please be kind
Always. I think there is a lot of misconceptions and misunderstanding when we try to express that life exists out there in mathematical terms. I think the terms "probability" and "likelihood" are often misused in this context. Those terms are used to determine the odds of something occurring based on sample data. The sample data consists of data where the thing you are trying to predict has occurred and when it has not occurred. Think of a deck of cards. We know Aces occur 4 times so we can determine probability of drawing an ace from the deck because of what we know. Now just because we are talking about billions of things, the math doesn't change. There is no point where the numbers get so big that the math changes.
So it doesn't matter how big or how many things there are. What matters is how many times you observed that thing happening. So what the Drake equation does is it makes up those values. We can call them guesses or assumptions but that is what makes up for the lack of observed data.
originally posted by: Moondoggie
a reply to: LogicalRazor
The issue I take with this.. is that these knuckleheads wasted resources,,ie gov. grants ,too watch computer simulations of what may or may not be possible for aliens too do , when they could of just read a couple ATS threads & concluded the same thing,,, Congratulation ATS users ...you now are deserving of a Bachelor's degree in Astrophysics & a Master's in Physics .
originally posted by: JadeStar
We know (fp) the fraction of stars of stars with planets = around 100% - for just about every star you see (especially stars like our Sun has planets circling it. Planets are a byproduct of star formation. - Finding this was one of the main reasons the Keck telescopes in Hawaii were built.
originally posted by: amazing
originally posted by: OccamsRazor04
originally posted by: amazing
I think there is a really good mathematical probability that alien probes have visited earth or at least our solar system.
Can you share with me the equations you are using?
why do you disagree?
originally posted by: PleiaDsClusterDck
The Drake equation is:
N = R_[\ast] \cdot f_p \cdot n_e \cdot f_[\ell] \cdot f_i \cdot f_c \cdot L
where:
N = the number of civilizations in our galaxy with which radio-communication might be possible (i.e. which are on our current past light cone);
and
R* = the average rate of star formation in our galaxyfp = the fraction of those stars that have planetsne = the average number of planets that can potentially support life per star that has planetsfl = the fraction of planets that could support life that actually develop life at some pointfi = the fraction of planets with life that actually go on to develop intelligent life (civilizations)fc = the fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into spaceL = the length of time for which such civilizations release detectable signals into space[8]
originally posted by: amazing
Therefore X=G X P That number is 4 sextillion. That's a 4 with 21 zero's after it. If I multiply that by 1% that leaves me with 40 quadrillion possible planets in our Universe that could hold life. I think 1% is a low estimate and we’re not even talking about moons. We guess that there are several moons in our own solar system that could harbor life.
originally posted by: JadeStar
Good points about the Drake Equation.
At the time the Drake Equation was written, it was all guesses.
But not anymore.