MH17 Black Box Data Shows Evidence Of Missile Strike

a reply to: strsla

So the Ukrainians have stealth fighters now? Because there is no radar data to show any other planes flying near MH17, not even the Russian data. And if you look at the tracking on FR24, and other tracking sites, the aircraft flew almost the exact same course the entire flight, with one very slight detour and back again, probably to go around a thunderstorm. That's using data taken directly from the aircraft transponder.

Gonna have to point the finger at Kiev on this one, those Buk missile launchers were placed too conveniently.

a reply to: AnarchistoOfTheNorth

So how did the rebels shoot down planes that MANPADS can't reach, a week prior? Or was that Kiev too?

a reply to: Zaphod58
Confrontational much?
All I did was place my opinion down of Kiev being a bit sketchy since this whole thing started.

a reply to: AnarchistoOfTheNorth

And I asked a simple question. The rebels shot down at least one plane that was flying above the altitude a MANPADS can reach a week prior to Malaysia 17 was shot down. People keep saying that they didn't have the ability to do this, or that the missile launchers in the area belonged to Kiev. So I'm honestly curious, if that's the case then how did they shoot down a plane that was higher than a MANPADS can reach?

a reply to: Zaphod58
You actually kinda just opened my eyes, I guess it is possible the rebels got a hold of some ex-soviet tech.
But (how would they/who would) benefit from shooting down a commercial plane?

a reply to: AnarchistoOfTheNorth

The system in question has no IFF or discrimination system that can tell a commercial plane from a military plane. So if they were expecting a military plane (there was an AN-26 that was supposed to have been in the area), and detected MH17, there was no way to tell other than the altitude of the contact. But with this type of radar, that would require training and practice, something that the rebels wouldn't have much of. So it would actually be pretty easy for this to have been nothing but a tragic accident.

a reply to: AnarchistoOfTheNorth

But (how would they/who would) benefit from shooting down a commercial plane?

There really is no benefit in doing it intentionally, which is why it was more than likely a mistake.

a reply to: Zaphod58

So the rebels still haven't allowed access to the crash site.

There are reports that they have even mined the road leading to the site and other reports that the debris has been cut up or moved.

My questions...

If this was an accident..what is the fate of the guys who actually operated the BUK SAM system?

If you are covering it up...

(A) You don't want to allow access to the crash site. (check)
Debris is telling on what munitions destroyed the craft...both in appearance and potential chemical analysis/signature of the explosives that effected the aircraft?...would their not be a chemical signature that could be traced to a particular missile system? Would that chemical signature diminish with time and rain?

(B) You would not want to allow access to villages in the proximity of launch where locals might recall seeing the missile launch. (Check) access denied.

BUT...do they also round up camera phones in those villages? Civilians spotted watching the launch who might one day repeat what they witnessed? And would it not be easier for those rebels responsible for the actual mistaken strike to disappear in a warzone or become causalities of war rather than risk them being caught, arrested or simply the victim of a guilty conscience?

I worry the cover-up involves more than restricted access, but rather "buttoning down" loose ends as well.

a reply to: Indigo5

TBH, I wouldn't be surprised if quite a few people that have been killed in recent fighting in that region have been "loose ends" to this whole situation. There have been quite a few people killed in the last few days.

originally posted by: AnarchistoOfTheNorth
a reply to: Zaphod58
You actually kinda just opened my eyes, I guess it is possible the rebels got a hold of some ex-soviet tech.
But (how would they/who would) benefit from shooting down a commercial plane?

More than likely (imo) Russia supplied both the weapon and the operator, as it's not an easy system to operate.

Shooting the commercial plane was an accident.

a reply to: OccamsRazor04

Actually according to everything I've read, the system was designed to be quite simple to operate. That's why it doesn't have IFF, or NCTR.

a reply to: Indigo5

Rebels do not have the kind of resources that would gag an entire population like you describe.

If there was any video of missile launch, it would have appeared by now. Likely there is no video.

The fact that rebels have no interest in the "investigation" is clear from the fact that they are being blamed from the first five minutes after the incident.

Chemical trace - the Buks in Ukraine inventory are built by the same plant. It is impossible to tell if misssile is Russian or Ukrainian.

originally posted by: Zaphod58
a reply to: OccamsRazor04

Actually according to everything I've read, the system was designed to be quite simple to operate. That's why it doesn't have IFF, or NCTR.

May be true, but from what I read hitting a target at that altitude would require experience. I don't know much about the system myself.

"If it was a Buk, that is a quite sophisticated system that would require some kind of knowledge about how it works," said Douglas Barrie, senior fellow for military aerospace at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London. "This is not the kind of system you can just pick up and use."

online.wsj.com...

Again I am just going by what I read.

a reply to: GargIndia

You'd still be able to tell if it was air to air or surface to air, which could completely change things, if it was the former.

originally posted by: GargIndia

The fact that rebels have no interest in the "investigation" is clear from the fact that they are being blamed from the first five minutes after the incident.

Except they are very interested. Interested in preventing it.

originally posted by: GargIndia
a reply to: Indigo5

Rebels do not have the kind of resources that would gag an entire population like you describe.

Not an entire population, only those few remaining in villages in the midst of a combat zone and specifically the village near launch...and more specifically those with appropriate vantage points to witness the launch.


While several video and pics have turned up near the projected/suspected launch site..of the BUK missile system departing..

as several witnesses told the Guardian they had seen what appeared to be a Buk missile launcher in the vicinity of the crash site last Thursday.

The sightings back up a number of photographs and videos posted online that put the Buk system close to the crash site on the day of the disaster.

www.theguardian.com...

The actual nearest village that would have potential civilian witnesses is

There have been suggestions that the missile was fired from fields on the outskirts of Snizhne.

Armed rebels at a checkpoint outside the entrance to Snizhe were turning away cars with journalists on Tuesday, saying they had received orders not to let the press into the town.

www.theguardian.com...

To date the rebels haven't allowed investigators or journalists into Snizhe to speak with anyone...

My fear for the safety of those villagers is warranted. At a minimum, I have little doubt that they have gone door to door collecting all phones and camera's. And it's entirely possible that any villagers living where they had a direct line of site of the missile launch have gone "missing" or been "caught in crossfire".

Many of the rebel commanders are Russian black-ops and FSS/Former KGB....all there voluntarily if Putin is to be believed.

originally posted by: GargIndia
a reply to: Indigo5

If there was any video of missile launch, it would have appeared by now. Likely there is no video.

Hmmm...Why? The minute the rebels had the "oh crap" moment after briefly celebrating the hit and boasting on twiiter and the Russian version of FB...what next? Cover-up...turn and look toward the closest town of Snizhe..."Go collect every damn cell phone and camera you can find from anyone left in that hell-hole. Bring me anyone that witnessed it...and no one goes in and out of this town"


Secondly...does Snizhe have internet access? How many villagers have internet and cell access in that town in the middle of a war? Also...any video released on the net could easily be triangulated back to the home of the video taker in Snizhe...and I imagine the video would be shot by people sheltering in their homes. Until the rebels allow reporters or investigators to speak with the remaining resident of Snizhe, assuming they are still living...we will never know for sure.

originally posted by: GargIndia
a reply to: Indigo5
The fact that rebels have no interest in the "investigation" is clear from the fact that they are being blamed from the first five minutes after the incident.

If they are innocent then why not welcome the investigators? It would clear their name and dispel the accusations? Why not at least let a single resident of Snizhe speak with them? They were not "blamed" immediately after the attack..they very publicly took credit for it, before they realized it was an airliner.

originally posted by: GargIndia
Chemical trace - the Buks in Ukraine inventory are built by the same plant. It is impossible to tell if misssile is Russian or Ukrainian.

They can tell if it was a BUK SAM...vs the physically impossible retort of Russian Propagandists that it was a Ukranian SU-25.

a reply to: OccamsRazor04

The BUK SAM system is remarkably simple, creating an upside-down radar "funnel" that directs the missile to it's target and detonates beside it to have maximum damage via shrapnel.

whether it required specific training or not is not necessarily relevant. The BUK system that was likely employed did not have the capability/components to identify enemy craft from civilian.

a reply to: Zaphod58

This is the most specific and plausible accounting of what happened thus far IMO:
www.miamiherald.com...

a reply to: Indigo5

That's pretty much what I figured happened honestly. With the clouds, and an AN-26 supposed to be in the area, a system that can't identify one plane from another would have a hard time telling them apart, and it would be easy to make a mistake.