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12% chance that Earth will be hit within 10 years

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posted on Jul, 24 2014 @ 02:53 PM
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On one of my news sources I had read an interesting article that lead me to a lot of contemplation. It mentions that back on July 23, 2012 a massive solar storm had just missed Earth, and it would have sent us back to the stone age for years. This was actually a VERY close hit. If the coronal mass ejection (CME) had shot out of the sun in a slightly different direction, all of our power would be gone, and we would STILL be cleaning up the mess today.





A solar storm is a generic term for increased activity in the Sun. In this case, the solar storm of July 2012 consisted of a massive solar flare, followed by a colossal coronal mass ejection (CME). A solar flare is initiated by the sudden release of energy stored in the Sun’s corona, causing the Sun’s plasma to heat up to tens of millions of degrees, accelerating and kicking out all sorts of radiation, and often creating a solar prominence or filament (eruption)...

...Suffice it to say, but it’s bad news if the energy and plasma from a big solar flare or CME hits the Earth. Much like a man-made electromagnetic pulse (EMP) weapon, the solar energetic particles strike the Earth with such force that it ionizes the atmosphere, creating a vast cloud of energetic electrons that bounce around inside the atmosphere destroying electronics and fusing conductive wires everywhere. It would probably take out a few satellites in Earth orbit, too.

Prior to the July 2012 storm, the largest recorded storm was the Carrington Event of 1859. A massive solar flare and CME struck Earth, destroying much of the Victorian telegraph network in Europe and North America. Other solar storms have hit Earth since then, but fortunately we’ve only been hit by one large storm during modern times, which caused the 1989 Quebec blackout.

source


Other than Global wars, Solar flares are my second, personal big fear when it comes to the most likely bad-situation. The article made me contemplate what I would do if my country was hit by that solar storm? To me, the best option would be to quickly run and grab any water and food I could, then head out into the bush. Fortunately, in my country (Canada), we have enough bush for everyone! It's just a matter of knowing how to survive in it.




If the solar storm had hit Earth back in 2012, the total economic impact is estimated to be around $2 trillion, or 20 times the cost of Hurricane Katrina. It’s not just about money, though: As I covered in our feature story The Machine Stops, it would take time to fix up the world’s power grid. You can’t just magically replace dozens of giant transformers and substations. There are only so many diesel generators to fill the gap. If a giant solar storm hit the Earth, large parts of society could be without power for months or years. Pete Riley, a physicist who looked at extreme space weather events for the last 50 years, says there’s a 12% chance that a Carrington-level storm will hit Earth in the next 10 years.


To me, 12% is very high. I'm not going to count on the event happening, but it is probable enough to consider it a major threat.

My question to all of you would be; If this were to occur on a global scale, and it occurred when you and anyone you are living with was home at the time (this includes family, roommates, apartment folk, what have you!), what would be your plan of action?
edit on 24/7/14 by Ghost147 because: (no reason given)




posted on Jul, 24 2014 @ 02:59 PM
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Meh. No one cares that about 10,000 of over 1,000,000 near earth asteroids have been discovered. There certainly hasn't been a huge increase in funding to find more of these things since that NEO blew up in Russia a while back. So why do you think they'll care about this?



posted on Jul, 24 2014 @ 03:02 PM
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originally posted by: Ghost147
On one of my news sources I had read an interesting article that lead me to a lot of contemplation. It mentions that back on July 23, 2012 a massive solar storm had just missed Earth, and it would have sent us back to the stone age for years. This was actually a VERY close hit. If the coronal mass ejection (CME) had shot out of the sun in a slightly different direction, all of our power would be gone, and we would STILL be cleaning up the mess today.





A solar storm is a generic term for increased activity in the Sun. In this case, the solar storm of July 2012 consisted of a massive solar flare, followed by a colossal coronal mass ejection (CME). A solar flare is initiated by the sudden release of energy stored in the Sun’s corona, causing the Sun’s plasma to heat up to tens of millions of degrees, accelerating and kicking out all sorts of radiation, and often creating a solar prominence or filament (eruption)...

...Suffice it to say, but it’s bad news if the energy and plasma from a big solar flare or CME hits the Earth. Much like a man-made electromagnetic pulse (EMP) weapon, the solar energetic particles strike the Earth with such force that it ionizes the atmosphere, creating a vast cloud of energetic electrons that bounce around inside the atmosphere destroying electronics and fusing conductive wires everywhere. It would probably take out a few satellites in Earth orbit, too.

Prior to the July 2012 storm, the largest recorded storm was the Carrington Event of 1859. A massive solar flare and CME struck Earth, destroying much of the Victorian telegraph network in Europe and North America. Other solar storms have hit Earth since then, but fortunately we’ve only been hit by one large storm during modern times, which caused the 1989 Quebec blackout.

source


Other than Global wars, Solar flares are my second, personal big fear when it comes to the most likely bad-situation. The article made me contemplate what I would do if my country was hit by that solar storm? To me, the best option would be to quickly run and grab any water and food I could, then head out into the bush. Fortunately, in my country (Canada), we have enough bush for everyone! It's just a matter of knowing how to survive in it.




If the solar storm had hit Earth back in 2012, the total economic impact is estimated to be around $2 trillion, or 20 times the cost of Hurricane Katrina. It’s not just about money, though: As I covered in our feature story The Machine Stops, it would take time to fix up the world’s power grid. You can’t just magically replace dozens of giant transformers and substations. There are only so many diesel generators to fill the gap. If a giant solar storm hit the Earth, large parts of society could be without power for months or years. Pete Riley, a physicist who looked at extreme space weather events for the last 50 years, says there’s a 12% chance that a Carrington-level storm will hit Earth in the next 10 years.


To me, 12% is very high. I'm not going to count on the event happening, but it is probable enough to consider it a major threat.

My question to all of you would be; If this were to occur on a global scale, and it occurred when you and anyone you are living with was home at the time (this includes family, roommates, apartment folk, what have you!), what would be your plan of action?


First of all, one more thing that must be added into the equation is the acceleration of the reduction in force of the magnetosphere. That may make a smaller CME that much more important or damaging perhaps.
Now to your question: What would I do?
I imagine I would sit there for about half an hour thinking that it was a local power-outage, then try to call a friend and curse my mobile phone provider because there was non coverage...then I'd probably join all the other people talking in the street that I heard through my window saying "WTH is going on?". After that I have no clue what I would do. Probably get an idea into my head to stock water while I could.



posted on Jul, 24 2014 @ 03:05 PM
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a reply to: Ghost147




To me, 12% is very high.

Glass half full .... 88% chance Earth won't be hit in the next 10 years



posted on Jul, 24 2014 @ 03:05 PM
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a reply to: Ghost147


My question to all of you would be; If this were to occur on a global scale, and it occurred when you and anyone you are living with was home at the time (this includes family, roommates, apartment folk, what have you!), what would be your plan of action?


I live in SW Colorado... so unless the damn thing landed right on top of me... most likely I would simply open the front door and yell out,

Hey honey... come check out the pretty lights in the sky!

Action, reaction to such an event depends on where you live...



posted on Jul, 24 2014 @ 03:07 PM
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Does anyone remeber that so called comment by Werner Von Braun about how things would pan out? There would be first the Russians, then terrorism, then asteroids and finally aliens. Is it just me? But it seems like they are playing all four cards at ONCE!



posted on Jul, 24 2014 @ 03:11 PM
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Of all the doom events, I see this as the greatest threat, and is the main reason I keep an emergency kit ready to go. At 31, I feel confident that I'll see it in my lifetime. It's just a question of when and where. If it's anytime soon on an unprotected grid in any of the developed areas of the world, there will be casualties on a scale not seen since WWII.



posted on Jul, 24 2014 @ 03:16 PM
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a reply to: Jonjonj

That's a claim by Carol Rosin but did Wernher Von Braun actually say that ?
edit on 24-7-2014 by gortex because: (no reason given)



posted on Jul, 24 2014 @ 03:19 PM
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a reply to: Jonjonj



The strategy that Wernher Von Braun taught me was that first the Russians are going to be considered to be the enemy. In fact, in 1974, they were the enemy, the identified enemy. We were told that they had "killer satellites". We were told that they were coming to get us and control us-that they were "Commies."

Then terrorists would be identified, and that was soon to follow. We heard a lot about terrorism. Then we were going to identify third-world country "crazies." We now call them Nations of Concern. But he said that would be the third enemy against whom we would build space-based weapons. The next enemy was asteroids. Now, at this point he kind of chuckled the first time he said it.

Asteroids- against asteroids we are going to build space-based weapons. And the funniest one of all was what he called aliens, extraterrestrials. That would be the final scare. And over and over and over during the four years that I knew him and was giving speeches for him, he would bring up that last card. "And remember Carol, the last card is the alien card. We are going to have to build space-based weapons against aliens and all of it is a lie."


www.rense.com...




posted on Jul, 24 2014 @ 03:19 PM
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No power. Unless you live close to a natural gas field, no heat. (Natural gas lines are pressurized to move the gas to where it's needed. If you're close enough, there may be enough natural pressure to feed your gas stove if you have one. Note: The fan in your furnace would still not work - no electricity, remember?) Emergency generators at hospitals and other crucial facilities would quickly run out of fuel. No communications, meaning no calls to first responders who, in any case, would be lacking fuel for ambulances and fire trucks. How long would those first responders, including police, stay on the job before they decided it was more important to be at home watching out for their own families?

I imagine at least several thousand people learned a hard lessons from hurricanes and have some supplies on hand, but the vast majority would still be up the creek after a few weeks at most. Chaos, looting, civilization crumbling, Mad Max, The Road, etc. Rural communities would be able to hold out far longer than the cities, which would rapidly become hell holes, death traps. Many would be dead within weeks, those with medical needs depending on electricity among the first to die; most of us within a couple of months at the most. Dark ages, indeed.
edit on 24-7-2014 by Cohen the Barbarian because: Poor proofing



posted on Jul, 24 2014 @ 03:21 PM
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originally posted by: Ghost147
If a giant solar storm hit the Earth, large parts of society could be without power for months or years.


I read that "large parts of society" as "South America, Africa half of Asia"... America would be one of the first to rebuild, along with Europe and probably Russia and China... I think Major Cities area would be back up within a week or so.

Maybe I'm being naive... but I'm sure we'd manage.



posted on Jul, 24 2014 @ 03:22 PM
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a reply to: Ghost147




and it would have sent us back to the stone age for years.


Not that far back actually.

More like the Victorian / Steam Power Age.



posted on Jul, 24 2014 @ 03:23 PM
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a reply to: Ghost147

Why do people refer to the "stone age" as a description of what life would be like without electricity? There's a big difference between the stone age and the 19th century technologies.

I think it would be a catalyst for change that we need but it sure wouldn't be a painless one. I doubt very much we would end up rebuilding society in the same fashion we have today. The world would look far different than today after everything was back online.

One of the pangs of bitterness I would have about that situation is the delay in all the awesome sciences and tech that we are on the cusp of rolling out today. When religion caused the dark ages, it put us back scientifically several centuries. It's crazy to think what life would be life if not for that.



posted on Jul, 24 2014 @ 03:25 PM
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Hence why I called it so called, whoever said it, the word I would use would be prescient though

a reply to: gortex



posted on Jul, 24 2014 @ 04:12 PM
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originally posted by: Cuervo
a reply to: Ghost147

Why do people refer to the "stone age" as a description of what life would be like without electricity? There's a big difference between the stone age and the 19th century technologies.

I think it would be a catalyst for change that we need but it sure wouldn't be a painless one. I doubt very much we would end up rebuilding society in the same fashion we have today. The world would look far different than today after everything was back online.

One of the pangs of bitterness I would have about that situation is the delay in all the awesome sciences and tech that we are on the cusp of rolling out today. When religion caused the dark ages, it put us back scientifically several centuries. It's crazy to think what life would be life if not for that.


The homes that I lived in were built before electricity. We had a fun time stripping out the old bakelite cables, light fittings and put in modern wiring.

If we went back to the days before electricity, we'd have gas lamps for the streets and in our homes. We wouldn't have refrigerators, but ice rooms and ice boxes. Food would have to be sourced from nearby farms. We'd have to put in orders to the butcher, fishmonger, baker and they would send round a delivery person the following day.

We'd probably need to plant more trees to create fuel for heating, or even reopen old coalmines.

But other things wouldn't be so different. In the 1900's, most items were bought from department stores, and they gave away free catalogs. You'd put your order in, and it would be transported from the London warehouses overnight by steam train, ready for collection or delivery the next day. Though delivery would be by horse-drawn wagon.



posted on Jul, 24 2014 @ 04:24 PM
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a reply to: Ghost147

I wonder what the odds are for two years then?




posted on Jul, 24 2014 @ 04:54 PM
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How many people would have a means of detecting radiation on hand?

It would be useful when a whole lot of nuclear power plants melted down like Fukushima did as they run out of diesel fuel for their emergency generators that would power cooling water pumps.



posted on Jul, 24 2014 @ 05:01 PM
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originally posted by: Cuervo
a reply to: Ghost147



Why do people refer to the "stone age" as a description of what life would be like without electricity? There's a big difference between the stone age and the 19th century technologies.


Because they lack rational perspective.



posted on Jul, 24 2014 @ 05:21 PM
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So what your saying is that it would be better to retire at 62 than wait until 66 and 7 months, cause hey, what the hell?



posted on Jul, 24 2014 @ 05:35 PM
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I am looking forward to a return to the stone age... hopefully it doesn't happen when I or my wife is on an Airplane.

If I am at home, bunker in and wait for the initial wave of chaos to occur, load up and hoof it to my closest bug out point and re-asses.

On a slight side track note, I have noticed a trend in peoples plans and Doomsday Preppers makes it worse (yes I watch the show, I laugh a lot and occasionally go wow good idea gotta write that down.) Lots of people say I am prepared for anything, and my experience is when you say that Old Mr. Murphey wakes up and kicks you in the jimmy.

how much thought have you put into surviving the initial chaos?

I mean I could spend every penny I have to prepare for a CME hit and if I am on a plane when it happens I am screwed.

Is it just me or is surviving the Initial chaos of a SHTF scenario based a lot on Luck?




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