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OP/ED: Operation: Pre-Draft, a Last Ditch Attempt

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posted on Dec, 1 2004 @ 03:22 PM
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It was a heated topic during the last Presidential Election, instituting a draft. While the US led coalition may gain control of certain cities in Iraq, insurgents brew up in the ones left unguarded. With the continuation of "The War on Terror," tensions rising in North Korea, Iran, and Ukraine, is the United States military properly staffed to combat any situation on the planet? Is the military planning a last ditch attempt at recruitment before a possible draft is started? Let's take a look.
 


During the second Presidential debate, George W. Bush said "Forget all this talk about a draft. We're not going to have a draft so long as I'm the president." To me this is a very bold statement which I do not think will hold up. We have too many situations right now that could get out of hand, North Korea and Iran come to my mind. Even if we do have support from other nations, I am sure the US would probably lead the way as far as money and troops go. Then you have the situation in the Ukraine, where Russian President Vladimir Putin warned that the crisis must be solved without foreign pressure. It is my belief that he is strictly referring to the US, because of pro-Western opposition leader Viktor Yushchenko. Regardless of whether or not the Kremlin believes the US is behind any operation to assure his Presidency, the consequences could turn ugly, and bring the US into another Cold War.

So far this week we had a Third Circuit Court of Appeals rule that Military recruiters could be banned from Universities. This would be a huge blow to recruitment. The United States Marine Corps is offering as much as $30,000 USD, some tax-free, to get people already trained to re-enlist. The idea, in my opinion, is not a hit. Reports I have seen have only had a short increase is the amount of re-enlisted troops, which will most likely fall far below expectations. The United States Army has turned to NASCAR for advertising and recruiting, mainly because of the age range for men who attend and watch. Not only are we suffering in the number of people enlisted, most of these are reserves that are part of the First Responders Network in the United States. Yes police, firefighters, and EMT's. This is leaving a hole in this network, so now you have two problems. More people would have died on 9-11 if it were not for the work of these brave people. What happens when we are attacked again? Less trained people to respond. What is the solution?

A draft?

Yes, a draft.

This to me looks like the beginning phase. A big push for recruitment, then; "Well, we tried going without it, but we will have to institute a draft." I see no feasible way for the government to go on with their plans, as is, without one. There is too much instability in the world today to not have enough troops. Unlike the Gulf War, there is more dislike for the war in Iraq. It seems to me that most citizens in the US were fine with going into Afghanistan in response to 9-11. Then, we diverted attention away from Osama Bin Laden, you know the guy behind 9-11 who is still roaming the Earth, to oust Saddam Hussein. Having more people not backing the reason for going into Iraq, I do not see them quick to jump into any facet of the United States military by choice alone. I do not think we have enough troops in Iraq to do the job, yet most of them have not even been able to be swapped out. The United States can not go any longer without bolstering the military, and the only way they can do that, in my opinion, is by instituting a draft.




[edit on 20-1-2005 by TrickmastertricK]




posted on Dec, 1 2004 @ 04:00 PM
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Originally posted by TrickmastertricK
The United States can not go any longer without bolstering the Military, and the only way they can do that, IMHO, is only by instituting a Draft.



I mainly agree, except for a few points.

The Department of Defense already rewrote key sections of the Select Service System (SSS), and created a back door draft. As it stands now, the President can call for conscription into the SSS, without the approval of Congress. Then, "as needed," troops can be seconded -or 'drafted'- directly from the SSS into the military, again, without the approval of Congress.

Technically speaking, it's not a draft. But you're right, it's gonna hapen one way or 't 'other. The only alternate is diplomacy.






posted on Dec, 1 2004 @ 04:15 PM
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Going to need more than theories and conjectures to convince me that we are heading anywhere near to a re-emergin draft, Trick.
As I posted in another like topic thread yesterday:


Currently, there are 499,000 active duty Army troops, backed up by 700,000 National Guard and Army reservists. That's a third less than when the U.S. fought its last big war in the Persian Gulf, in 1991;
130,000 Army troops are in Iraq. Pentagon officials had hoped to reduce that number, but the ongoing insurgency prevented it; 9,000 Army troops are in Afghanistan; 3,000 help keep the peace in Bosnia, as do 37,000 in South Korea.

THE SIZE OF THE U.S. ARMY


With an Army backed by 700,000 National Guardsmen, that could be called upon, where is the justification for bringing back the draft, short of a national catastrophe involving a major attack/terrorist attack within this nation? Do you have the latest retention numbers? Do you have the lastest enlistment numbers? They are compared with 'what' that causes many to add them up to declare that a draft is inevitable and coming?




seekerof



posted on Dec, 1 2004 @ 07:15 PM
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dior.whs.mil

You can go here and see the decline of Active Military Personnel, I would post it all here, but it is all in .PDF, also the total number includes people sitting around at a desk, not directly invovled in combat. I'm not saying they do not contribute, but they are not in harms way. The average age of a soldier in Iraq is around 27 years old. I have seen conflicting reports on this, The average age of a soldier KIA is 25. Could you imagine being killed, or have a close one killed before they are 26 years old? Suicides have risen :



Psycport.com

There were at least 24 suicides among U.S. soldiers in Iraq and Kuwait last year, according to the Army's count. That number may increase because the circumstances of some other deaths are still in doubt.

That equates to a suicide rate of 17.3 per 100,000 soldiers, compared with a rate of 12.8 for the Army as a whole in 2003 and an average rate of 11.9 for the Army during the 1995-2002 period, according to officials familiar with the mental health study. They spoke on condition of anonymity.

The 24 suicides do not include soldiers who killed themselves after returning to the United States.

The overall U.S. civilian suicide rate during 2001 was 10.7 per 100,000, according to the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The U.S. civilian rate for the 18-34 age group, which is the age range of most soldiers, is 21.5 per 100,000.

Please visit the link provided for the complete story.


This comes to an increase of 5.4 per 100,000 in one year. This is an increase of about 41% since 2002.



Armytimes.com

About 30 percent of the 3,664 Individual Ready Reserve soldiers who have been called to active duty failed to report for mobilization, an Army Reserve official said.

The soldiers submitted papers for a delay and exemption process, claiming personal and professional matters that prevent them from showing up.

Please visit the link provided for the complete story.


1 in 3 failed to report, and this is in just five mobilization stations nationwide.

On July 21, 2003 the total deaths in Iraq jumped over the total Killed during the Entire Gulf War. Hear we are a year and 3 months later and the number has risen drastically.

Soldiers themselves returning from Iraq do not agree with this war
www.vaiw.org...

From the same site:


STRATFORD A serviceman, apparently distraught over the prospect of being sent back to the war in Iraq, threatened to kill himself as he stood naked and screaming outside his house.


Seekrof, I have the utmost respect for you, all of your knowledge and contributions to this site. But I think this is more of a matter of pricipal than uttering off numbers. This is NOT what the US Military is. I do not think it is a matter of serving the US as a Proud Soldier, but rather serving someone elses desires at the cost of their very life. The Troops in Iraq are not there because of an Imment Threat, or a clear and present danger. And if you believe so, then why are we not in Iran and North Korea? They present a more clear and present danger to the US as well as the rest of the world than Iraq would ever have. So this argument does not hold up well with me.

March 28,2003
Senator Frank R. Lautenberg (D-NJ)


PoliticsNJ.com

We should not sacrifice the security and safety of our communities when we confront threats abroad, said Lautenberg. Its important to bolster our military capabilities both here and abroad, but we shouldnt do so at the expense of our domestic ability to respond to terrorist attacks, natural disasters, and other emergencies.

Not surprisingly, many police, fire, rescue, emergency medical service, and emergency hazardous material disposal personnel serve in the National Guard and Reserves. More and more of these men and women are being called up for longer and longer tours of active duty, especially now that the war with Iraq has begun,


Please visit the link provided for the complete story.


These reservists are a backbone to the First Responders in the US, we take from one and give to the other, yet we are still going to be down 1 somewhere.

I am also looking at the perspective of American Youth. To me it seems that 18 and 19 year olds, who are among the most targeted in recruitment, have a severe disdain for Law and Order Now than 12 years ago, when I was 18.
To me it seems that Families have been suffering so much financially that both parents have to work to make ends meet. This leaves a kid without any Obtainable sense of Morals. I speak from experience, I am not saying that these are horrible parents, but something does become lost. I do not think many are jumping up at the chance to fight for George Bush, but would for the United States, there is a difference.

Again this is just my opinion.



posted on Dec, 1 2004 @ 07:58 PM
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Does anyone have any numbers on how many of the active duty troops it takes just to keep our overseas bases staffed (even at a skeleton crew level)?

IE, we've got some 490,000 active duty troops, but how many of those can we deploy @ will without having to start shutting down some overseas bases? I'm not an expert in military affairs, but was under the impression we had > 1000 or so overseas bases, and although I'm sure these vary in size it seems reasonable (to me, who has little military experience) that keeping a typical base staffed and operational probably takes a couple hundred people (people who know what they're talking about feel free to correct my impressions).

It seems unlikely that the US would abandon its overseas bases en masse in a short timespan even if an urgent need for more deployable troops arose; although in a lengthy conflict there'd be time to properly wind down some less-important bases and then redeploy their troops where more urgently needed, it doesn't seem like it's something you can do right away...at best, it seems like you can move out all non-essential personnal from each base, but with a thousand or so bases keeping a skeleton crew at each base probbably cuts into our 490,000 active-duty troops.



posted on Dec, 13 2004 @ 11:47 AM
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On a related note: don't we have plans to pull out of Europe?

I couldn't find any hard numbers, or when though.


www.globalsecurity.org...



posted on Dec, 13 2004 @ 02:03 PM
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It is so funny, that people liek you could actually before the presidential Election ride George W. so hard ... That is right only you people riding George W. would talk about these issues. But me I like them too hehe ... Anyways ... It is so funny that you can tell me all these reasons why we need to institute a draft but, when ever it comes you say you don't want it. I would guess you are fat ... seeing how you think like that ... You probably think if you eat whatever you want it will not affect you I mean look at you you just ate that McDonalds and fries but you are in good shape. Why is that going to change you ?



posted on Dec, 13 2004 @ 02:39 PM
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Just thought I would note that the Army alone has 490,000 Active
and somewhere between 500,000 - 700,000 reserve that does not even take
into account the other Armed forces Branches..!!!

I think that actual figure is somewhere along the lines
of 2 million if you count all active and reserve together in
one group.



posted on Dec, 13 2004 @ 10:53 PM
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Originally posted by geocom
Just thought I would note that the Army alone has 490,000 Active
and somewhere between 500,000 - 700,000 reserve that does not even take
into account the other Armed forces Branches..!!!

I think that actual figure is somewhere along the lines
of 2 million if you count all active and reserve together in
one group.



If this is the case, why are troops basically being held against their will to stay in Iraq? Why is the rotation Gone? We have about 150,000 troops in Iraq right Now. Some have been there the whole time, while others are on their second tour. If we have the Manpower, which I thought we did, why are these troops not being Properly rotated? If they need to pull troops from outside bases, Im sure they could at least swap them out. I'm sure that if we truly bolstered up our presence there, we would be out of there in no time at all. It seems that no other Nations will be sending troops, so we do have to finish it, and from the looks of it, we do not have enough troops readily available.



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