Ebola Cases Spike in Guinea, Sierra Leone

At least 21 people died and 37 new cases of suspected Ebola were recorded in Guinea between May 29 and June 1, the World Health Organization said on Wednesday, undermining the government's claims that the number of Ebola deaths was slowing.

The new figures take to 328 the number of cases linked to the disease in Guinea, of which 193 have been confirmed by laboratory tests.

In total, 208 deaths have been linked to Ebola, making the outbreak one of the deadliest for years.

Ebola Cases Spike in Guinea, Sierra Leone

This is really starting to get serious, 37 known cases in 3 days is very troubling to say the least. The only saving grace is it kills so damn quick it has been somewhat isolated, but as the numbers rise so will it spread.

When we look at the 2 to 21 days incubation period and 90% fatality rate this could hit a city near you very soon. Compared to the Black Plague that had 30 to 40% fatality rate of around 200 million deaths in the 1400-1500 this is crazy lethal, and there has been one known case of air born transfer in the US from monkey to monkey, and that can change very quickly too.

When we think of all the doom porn out there this is truly the one that is going to affect the world very soon.

More than half of the new deaths in Guinea were in the southern region of Gueckedou, epicentre of the outbreak which began in February, near the Sierra Leone and Liberian borders. The town is known for its weekly market which attracts traders from the region as well as from neighbouring countries.

From your link.
This is worrying, the market draws in people from other areas. You are correct in that this has the potential to explode quickly, all it takes is a few sick traders spreading it in another market area elsewhere for it to spread further. I think the only saving grace is indeed that it kills so quickly, imagine the snowball effect this could have if it was a speedy spreader that didn't kill so quickly.

originally posted by: Nyiah

More than half of the new deaths in Guinea were in the southern region of Gueckedou, epicentre of the outbreak which began in February, near the Sierra Leone and Liberian borders. The town is known for its weekly market which attracts traders from the region as well as from neighbouring countries.

From your link.
This is worrying, the market draws in people from other areas. You are correct in that this has the potential to explode quickly, all it takes is a few sick traders spreading it in another market area elsewhere for it to spread further. I think the only saving grace is indeed that it kills so quickly, imagine the snowball effect this could have if it was a speedy spreader that didn't kill so quickly.

I think it will come down to timing. The 2 to 21 days of incubation can put the disease anywhere in the world. Think of a person who boards a transatlantic flight during their contagious period. They use the airport's public restrooms a few times since they do not feel well spreading it to other parts of the world, and then they use the airline's rest room a bunch for the same reason over 18 hour flight in a confined area. Half the damn plane could be infected as they go home and kiss their love ones, and so on....

Also think of a terrorist group that might go to New Guinea and set up a lab to get cultures of this disease for their own use. No need to strap a bomb on a guy when you can infect him and do a hell of a lot more damage.

originally posted by: Xtrozero

When we think of all the doom porn out there this is truly the one that is going to affect the world very soon.

edit on 5-6-2014 by crazyewok because: (no reason given)

originally posted by: Xtrozero

This is really starting to get serious, ...The only saving grace is it kills so damn quick it has been somewhat isolated,

Erm, no. That very mistaken assumption pretty much caused the current epidemic to spread out of control.

Ebola Epidemic Could Become Global Crisis

originally posted by: soficrow
originally posted by: Xtrozero

This is really starting to get serious, ...The only saving grace is it kills so damn quick it has been somewhat isolated,

Erm, no. That very mistaken assumption pretty much caused the current epidemic to spread out of control.

Ebola Epidemic Could Become Global Crisis

I guess so since you sniped just this one line, and the rest of my post basically suggests it can get out of control, but I do stand by my line that so far it's lethality has been the only thing that has been preventing it to spread worldwide. This of course can be overridden with large enough pool of infected people.

a reply to: Xtrozero

Yes - ebola can be lethal with fatality rates up to 90%. BUT - the incubation time ranges from 2-21 days - plenty of time to spread. So the lethality really isn't much of a "protection" against its spreading. ...You may not know but the WHO minimized the importance of this epidemic, sat on it and did not take action soon enough. Left MSF (Doctors Without Borders) with no resources or support for way too long. All because they believed the 'lethality' was protective.

/rant

bbc link

The number of people killed by the deadly Ebola virus in West Africa has risen to 337, the World Health Organization (WHO) has said.

Fourteen deaths and 47 new cases were reported across the region over the last week, it added.

Guinea is worst-affected with 264 Ebola-related deaths. In Sierra Leone, there have been 49 deaths and in Liberia 24, the WHO said.

For Marie-Christine Ferir, emergency programmes coordinator at Doctors Without Borders (MSF), the data showed a "fresh outbreak because there have been new cases" in Guinea.
"We are facing a second peak of the epidemic," she said, adding that the fact that infected cases were not being isolated is complicating efforts at containing the outbreak.