Gun Homicides Down Dramatically, Americans Unaware

I have to admit I was unaware just how dramatically the drop was. 49% lower in 2010 than in 1993, that's a BIG drop. I was under the impression it was more like a 15% drop.

Public perception graph:


I would have guessed it had dropped personally, but I was not surprised to see how many people thought homicide rates involving guns had gone up. Actually I was a little surprised, I figured more people would have chosen that over stayed the same.

I'm aware that there just might be a few conspiracy minded people on this site. I personally don't think the media is after anything but ratings and viewers, but I suppose the argument could be made that they are manipulating the public for a cause. My opinion is that these things are being hyped more because there aren't as many occurrences and things like mass shootings draw in readers/viewers/ad revenue.

It seems there is something in the news every day about gun violence. The recent mass shooting in Isla Vista, California, a movie theater riddled with bullets in Colorado, children and teachers gunned down at school in Connecticut, and the list goes on. While you may be seeing more and more shooting, the fact is, overall gun homicide rates have dropped dramatically over the past two decades, according to a recent study.

More than half of Americans believe gun violence has increased over the past two decades, but what you’re watching on the news, may be skewing your view.

That recent study said compared to 1993, the peak of US gun homicide, the rate was 49 percent lower in 2010, even though the population had grown. In other words, fewer people are dying by guns.

FAR fewer people. Apparently the number of suicides by gun has been going down as well, though not as quickly which isn't really that surprising to me.




The study goes on to suggest a few different reasons this decline may be happening. Of those, I found a decrease in lead to be a surprise.

Another theory links reduced crime to 1970s-era reductions in lead in
gasoline; children’s exposure to lead causes brain damage that could be associated with violent
behavior.

This next theory doesn't surprise me, but I find it rather sad.

According to
one hypothesis, legalization of abortion after the 1973 Supreme Court Roe v. Wade decision
resulted in fewer unwanted births, and unwanted children have an increased risk of growing
up to become criminals.

The study also suggests that a waning market for crack coc aine may have helped fuel the decline (starting in the early 90's) and a few others, worth a read.

I was wondering if there was going to be any mention of gun laws becoming less restrictive, and the massive upsurge that's been seen in Concealed Carry Permits, but nope. I personally think this has actually had an impact, though not as large of one as some people seem to want to believe. I can see why it wasn't included.

The firearm suicide rate (6.3 per 100,000 people) is higher than the firearm homicide
rate and has come down less sharply. The number of gun suicide deaths (19,392 in
2010) outnumbered gun homicides, as has been true since at least 1981.

I just wanted to throw this in too because I was unaware and figure some others here were too. I suppose I hadn't really given it much thought and it makes complete sense.

So our population numbers have soared, the amount of guns per capita has doubled since 1968 (and probably more than that recently) yet the numbers are going down. Seems an abundance of guns isn't really the culprit after all.

I'm not going to disagree with anyone that says if we could somehow get rid of all guns gun crime would go down. Obviously it would. The reality is that will never happen and we need to be looking at changes that were made during this gun homicide downturn more closely.

Any of this new to you? Agree with the study? Disagree? Surprised by anything? The first link is to a news article referencing the study, the second is the actual study which I hope people will actually read because it's rather interesting and has far more information/stats.

News Article
Study

ETA: I would be interested to hear what other members think would contribute to dropping these gun homicides/crimes/suicide numbers even lower. While I have some pretty strong beliefs about gun ownership, I would really like to hear all opinions, even if I don't agree with them. It's impossible to learn or change without being challenged.

I'm pretty sure most of us who advocate for gun ownership have been telling people this for awhile now. I mean even the FBI's own data shows that gun crimes went down..

New? Not really.

All them's needed killin', done been killed. Call it a day and move on.

a reply to: eXia7

Would probably be effective to get people advocating gun rights to start spreading this message. Just this alone would sway millions of people to the other side....

a reply to: Domo1

Thanks for posting this. I recently made a bit of a dick of myself regarding a related topic, so yeah thanks again.

I have done a little research into this and you are quite correct the numbers you quote are legitimate.

Additionally the number of persons killed by the police has remained relatively the same, although there appears to be some commentary that determining the real number is near impossible.

Of concern though is the following.



That is an upward trend of innocent people being senselessly mowed down by lunatics. How exactly that trend is reversed is the real question.

Thanks again.

Kind Regards
Myselfaswell

originally posted by: Euphem
a reply to: eXia7

Would probably be effective to get people advocating gun rights to start spreading this message. Just this alone would sway millions of people to the other side....

Trust me, information gets out. Sadly it falls on a vocal minorities deaf ears. It's not our jobs to hold people's hands and show them facts all the time.. it's in public domain, if people wish to know truth, they are free to look it up.

a reply to: myselfaswell

In relation to all the potential causes of death in the United States corresponding to the current population, the mass murders are statistically insignificant...as are the changes from year to year.

Put it this way:

Edit: www.cdc.gov...

Starting on page 37 you can see list of causes of death. Mass murders not even blip on the radar screen.

Legal Intervention caused 412 deaths...

I have no idea what that means

There could be multiple reasons for this but the facts are still the same. With the numbers of guns out there increasing, there is an inverse relationship with crimes committed with guns. This matches what a lot of people, and many republicans in congress are saying.

a reply to: Domo1

My friend, it's never been about guns.

It's always been about control.

a reply to: Domo1

This is why I have always consider it the Main Stream Marketing, instead of (MSM) Main Stream Media. When you have CBS, ABC, NBC, MSNBC, CNN, PBS, even FOX lately how could the perception be any different. The first thing they can do is stop sensationalizing every shooting in America, especially mass shootings. These nut jobs want to make the news when it's over, look at the last one making videos of himself. These nuts get more press than returning vets from war.

a reply to: MarlinGrace

They get far too much press, and I personally think that there is only one way to combat mass shootings.

Thread on it

We need to all agree to not publish or use their names. Make the event seem trivial and ignore the thing. I'm all for free speech, but I think voluntarily choosing to not turn these jackasses into anti heroes and publish their manifestos giving them a platform and a place in history that they desire would help to curb things.

Uptick in mass shootings correlates well with how fast information is passed.

a reply to: Domo1

The way much of the media makes it sound, we should all be getting beaten and robbed on a regular basis. The gun lobby has the difficult role of portraying society as being highly unsafe (criminals and tptb) and safe (ccw, armed populace) at the same time. Lost in all that politicking and media salesmanship is the evidence that overall crime has been dropping for a long time in the western world.

The pdf you link has this >>

...and similar patterns have been noted in Northern Europe on recent years. There have been some interesting speculations that removing lead from petrol in the 80s has helped amongst other reasons like expensive alcohol.

It's more interesting to me as it cuts right through the BS politics that have come to fuel discussion on ATS. That decrease in crime isn't thanks to any colour of political party and no president can be blamed or saluted for it either. Likewise, it hasn't come about from arming everyone or gun sales because similar decreases are happening in European countries without guns.

originally posted by: Domo1
a reply to: MarlinGrace

They get far too much press, and I personally think that there is only one way to combat mass shootings.

Thread on it

We need to all agree to not publish or use their names. Make the event seem trivial and ignore the thing. I'm all for free speech, but I think voluntarily choosing to not turn these jackasses into anti heroes and publish their manifestos giving them a platform and a place in history that they desire would help to curb things.

Uptick in mass shootings correlates well with how fast information is passed.

You are spot on here Domo. I watched the video, again spot on. Of note in the video is a small section with Park Detz, noted shrink and at the time on retainer with the FBI owning a company called threat assessment. I haven't seem him in many years but he used to be a darn good shooter in Kalifornia in USPSA competition. Very interesting guy to talk to. He is the one that interviewed Jeffery Dalhmer, when I asked him about it, he said and if I remember the quote it was to the effect "they just need to kill that guy he is crazy". It was funny because he was so dry and serious. But a genuinely good person, as most shooters are.

a reply to: Kandinsky

it hasn't come about from arming everyone or gun sales because similar decreases are happening in European countries without guns.

So if you had to guess? It seems there has been a reduction in crime on a global scale. I have a few pet theories. Interested to hear others.

I also find it interesting that the US is proportionally equivalent to other countries in crime, save for gun crime.

originally posted by: beezzer
a reply to: Domo1

My friend, it's never been about guns.

It's always been about control.

Exactly. And coincidentally this is why outsourcing is competitive with us. Because we are being compared to other unarmed citizens. No longer, when one hires an American do they get someone with firearm, civics, logic, and arts training in highschool. Why not go overseas and hire. What's the difference.

If a corporation requires someone trained in legal, accounting, and public relations they'll just do it in house. That way no one else can have them, as generally they are no longer available from the pool of High School grads. In the course of dumbing down American education ( so the corporations could have more gullible consumers ) they have devalued our employment thus mitigating another cost.

Control someone's sense of place in the community and you control their value.


Mike Grouchy

There's an exception, a few weeks ago in Chicago there was around 40 killings with a firearm just over the weekend.
Chicago is going mad.

a reply to: Domo1

It's really, really hard to guess isn't it? Money? Folk were rich in the 80s and poorer in the 90s and we've just peeked outside of the recession without a big crime rise so that sorta casts doubts on the economic reasons. Different political ideologies across western Europe and the US over 3 decades takes the credit away from politicians and lobbyists. The media reports on events and, arguably, never misses the chance to fan the flames of public anxieties so it ain't them!

The more anti-war generations of the 60s and 70s maybe bore fruit and their offspring have slightly different views? Maybe enough to be catalysts for a decrease in crime?

From a sociological perspective, we still have small areas where crime is steady and always present. Heavily populated urban areas tucked away in the suburbs and inner cities of Detroit, London, Paris etc. Whatever causes their conditions *could* be less evident in the wider western world and therefore we see decreasing crime.

Scratches ass head in puzzlement...

a reply to: Domo1

I heart this thread.

My favourite theory honestly is the 'wider sphere of care' concept. Telecommunications and access to so many different types of people really increase the number of different types of people that we consider to be 'one of us'. The idea that humans mainly fight over resources has a lot of research against it that suggests otherwise, but there is plenty of research to say that we feel much more empathy for people we identify with versus people we don't.

As much as people often complain about persons being over sensitive and not respecting each others rights, I think they're very much mistake about how 'down hill' everything is going. We argue about people's rights to be in a restaurant, to refuse service, to yell or say abusive things ... we used to argue about people's right to live.

In the words of John Cleese, I'd like to think of all the arguing as progress.

I think the drop coincides nicely with the advent of computer games.
All the donkeys who were kicking about the streets looking for trouble are now safely in Mom's basement playing Call of Duty and the like.

PCMasterRace! (Sorry... I'm not a cod gamer, and I'm generalizing about it. Many types of games and even just the internet are keeping people busy and out of trouble. We really should fight to keep the net open and for the development of media. 'Keep em Entertained'