The Ukraine is a tinderbox
The split between Russia and Western nations over Ukraine is the deepest since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. Russia has said Western
nations are taking actions which have inflamed the tense situation in Ukraine in the wake of the disputed election. President Vladimir Putin even
accused the European Union of encouraging supporters of opposition candidate Viktor Yushchenko to take to the streets in mass demonstrations, which
Russia terms "anti-democratic". Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has taken it a step further, saying that certain countries want to "move things
beyond legal norms" and that they want to push the Ukraine "to be more with the West."
If Russia fails in its political machinations (likely) at putting a favorable leader in the Ukrainian Presidency that will bend to its will and the
Eastern districts of the Ukraine try to form an autonomous region then civil war becomes a high probability. This of course assumes that with an
unfavourable outcome the Russians don't take more direct action in the capitol Kiev first.
Disticts in blue may split off with Yushchenko victory
The Ukraine since gaining its independence from the USSR has been an important buffer between Western European countries and Russia.
With an independent and western leaning government Europe (And the US) can be assured that the old Soviet Empire will not be resurrected anytime
Russia depends on the Ukraine as an entry point into the EU economy with energy pipelines and import export across Ukrainian territory.
If and its yet still a big if - the districts of Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Zhitomir, Zakarpattya, Kyiv, Luhansk, Nikolaev, Odessa, Poltava and Kharkiv
oblasts, plus Crimea do eventually attempt secession and the rest of the Ukraine attempts to stop the secession with force then other foreign forces
could easily be drawn in on either side.
Russia to the aid of the break-away oblasts with a goal of making a corridor to the Crimean oblast which would be cut off to the southwest and
protecting the flank of its naval installations at Sevastopol to the south.
Poland located on the border of Ukraine to the North West could concievably come to the aid of Western Ukraine, if a NATO country were to at that time
have war declared on it for participation in aiding Ukraine then the situation could involve all NATO members due to security agreements.
I know I have painted a bleak worse case scenario but looking back into history no one in 1936-38 could envisage what was to come in 1939-45
I certainly hope that this crisis is peacefully resolved soon and cooler heads prevail because the stakes in this region are too high. To do otherwise
is a risk to the entire worlds security in my opinion.
When did Titor say war was to happen?
[edit on 29-11-2004 by Phoenix]