UKRAINE: Enough CIRCUMSTANTIAL EVIDENCE to suggest Russian Government Incitement?

Let's review THREE KEY EVENTS in the Ukraine crisis and their related NARRATIVES which may or may not a suggest a heavy Russian government role in incitement and escalation.

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I have tried to focus on events which both sides seem to acknowledge, and stress the 'facts' which both seemingly agree upon (note my citing of both Western and Russian sources).

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1) The initial, tactical takeovers of government and administrative buildings in the eastern Ukraine cities included Russian national 'volunteers' (e.g. Kuban Cossacks in Simon Ostrovsky's interview). On the other hand, judging by some first hand interviews, disaffected Ukrainian veterans and Berkut also comprised these forces.

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Sources

Simon Ostrovsky interviews Kuban Cossack mercenaries involved in takeovers
www.vice.com...

New York Times article presents complexity of demographics among separatists
www.nytimes.com...

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2) The arson deaths of 40 people at the Trade Union House in Odessa, which did a significant amount to catalyze fear and hatred among eastern Ukrainians, occurred after prolonged street battles that day between the two protest groups. At the start of these skirmishes, both sides agree that the pro-Russian group was significantly 'infiltrated' by masked men carrying guns, and who fired these weapons indiscriminately into the crowds from behind barricades and atop roofs. While neither side can agree who these men were, both sides consider this a major incitement and therefore highly suspicious.

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Sources

Alleged 'pro-Russians' firing from roofs into pro-Kiev crowd
www.youtube.com...

RT's discussion of these individuals and their role
rt.com...

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3) The Ukrainian SBU released an alleged mobile phone intercept last Wednesday wherein a Donetsk separatist leader receives instructions from a member of Russia's ultra right wing party (Russian National Unity), on his need to proceed with the referendum (despite Putin's very diplomatic public request for them to delay it). In this recording, the separatist is told to fabricate an 89% YES vote which, coincidentally or not, matches yesterday's published result of 89.07%.

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Sources

Recording released by SBU
youtu.be...

Official referendum results given by RT
rt.com...

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PLEASE DO NOT PERSONALLY ATTACK ME OVER ANY SUPPOSED BIAS OR AGENDA!

I have honestly done my best to single out three key escalation events in this crisis along with the elements of the narrative which both sides seem to agree upon. Again, these events are (1) the Separatist takeovers of east Ukrainian buildings, (2) Odessa riots and deaths, and the (3) Donetsk 'referendum'.

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I have tried not to characterize or interpret anything here. In fact I am presenting this information in an extremely neutral way, definitely more so than most media outlets.

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I am not a citizen of any western European country, the States, Ukraine, or Russia but am in fact a citizen of an Arab country. I do have an educational background in the history and cultures of the region. Additionally, my career gives me somewhat of a firsthand familiarity with the intersection of Russian business and government.

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I want to know people's opinions on the following questions, from which a healthy discussion may hopefully emerge...

1) Do the agreed upon elements presented here taken alone give enough circumstantial evidence of Russian government involvement?

2) If not, what threshold of circumstantial evidence would?

3) Do these events suggest incitement by other groups (e.g. CIA, SBU)?

4) Are there any other events or narratives agreed upon by both sides that we might examine?

a reply to: ALoveSupreme

"Alleged 'pro-Russians' firing from roofs into pro-Kiev crowd "

Yes i too would be doing that given half a chance but then again you would have to forget the tanks all over the streets and all the nazi thugs being shipped in.

What you cannot argue about is the $5bn spent on starting this coup came from the west and the west is using more and more double standards each day.

"1) The initial, tactical takeovers of government and administrative buildings in the eastern Ukraine cities included Russian national "

Thats very selective and what about the tactical takeovers of government and administrative buildings in Kiev by people with guns who were not facing down tanks on the streets.

It is clear that the peope in the east want to side with Russia so maybe the answer is to respect the vote that three people got killed for by the army that was sent from Keiv

a reply to: ALoveSupreme


This video will give you a good amount of information on Odessa, you might not agree with it but give it a look.



Here is another video of an intercepted call of Victoria Nuland speaking about Ukraine before this all kicked off, citing a change of government



As for the tactical takeover of buildings, the people that took them over were Ukrainian, the people who died in Odessa were Ukrainian, there was no evidence of Russian involvement in the take over of these buildings, they are ordinary people that are afraid of what is in power in Kiev

A statement of those in power back in 2004

In 2004, Tyahnybok was kicked out of former President Viktor Yushchenko's parliamentary faction for a speech calling for Ukrainians to fight against a "Muscovite-Jewish mafia" - using two highly insulting words to describe Russians and Jews - and emphasising that Ukrainians had in the past fought this threat with arms.

The article is from the BBC from 2012 detailing the concerns of letting these people get power in Ukraine

www.bbc.co.uk...

Ask them about the new coup-appointed government:



They managed to ask the question themselves and majority of more than 5 million answered.

a reply to: sosobad

Thank you for the first video!

It definitely gives weight to the idea that there were specific individuals trying to incite violence among the greater crowd at Odessa.

Most if not all the footage are things I have seen.

They should have included the rooftop shooters too, and the circle of police who protected them from being torn apart by the pro-Maidan protestors after the shooting began.

But overall it was a decent job.

One huge assumption in this video question -- why assume that the Odessa police who are implicated here as cooperating with the red arm-banded 'agent provocateurs' are loyal to the Kiev government?

Why couldn't they be Russian sympathizers?

(If you remember the Berkut in Kyiv, most of them were loyal to the East and Yanukovych.)

More needs to be known about these police's identities.

Also, I would point out that the identities of the victims has not been published, not to the best of my knowledge. So it is is still unknown whether or not these persons included foreign nationals.

My point has already been said. The protestors in Kiev used the exact same tactics they were armed and killing police officers as well except they only had the police descend on them while these people get the Ukrainian Army mowing em down.

Yet this is all okay to those who want to simply blame Russia for everything, and not acknowledge the fact of how those in Kiev actually CAME into power. The exact same way those in the East did. But according to the Russia blamers they are all spetznatz...


For the record OP SnF and I do believe you are not biased and are simply searching for the facts. Props to you for that....it is so hard to find truth these days

a reply to: ALoveSupreme
Aw, you had me at Trane!

a reply to: ALoveSupreme

I added more to my original post

One huge assumption in this video question -- why assume that the Odessa police who are implicated here as cooperating with the red arm-banded 'agent provocateurs' are loyal to the Kiev government? - See more at: www.abovetopsecret.com...

That's the thing, the police intentionally let them provoke the pro-Kiev supporters then stood back and let them kill the anti-Kiev supporters at will, if the police were truly with the anti-Kiev supporters they would have tried to stop the violence against them but they didn't, why? They would have at least tried to save them and would have been attacked by the pro-Kiev supporters also, they were not and there is plenty of video evidence of them standing around letting them die.

originally posted by: maghun
Ask them about the new coup-appointed government:

They managed to ask the question themselves and majority of more than 5 million answered.

Thanks, but this video from RT does not really seem to address any of the agreed upon events or narratives I put forth.

I know that proponents of the referendum claim that a majority of Donetsk turned out and voted for independence. And even if that was agreed upon by both sides, it wouldn't really address the question of whether or not there has been incitement by Russia within its borders.

Hope this makes sense.

Screw our government! If this recent outing of Biden's son doesn't further drive home the fact that our government and our "leaders' are beyond reproach I don't know what does. I dont care how vile and corrupt Russia is. Putin and Russia now fully have my support. Screw Kiev and its western puppets/EU. Let eastern Ukranians do whatever they want to do. Just like the United States have the right to abolish government or secede from the "union" so do these republics o Ukraine. I mean WTF is going on in our country the USA? Are Americans so deeply buried up to their eyeballs in bull# they can't see what's happening? I mean it's pathetic where are country is headed and who's responsible for the direction it's going. We have leaders that keep failing their way to the top. Obama is a loser. Biden is a loser. Bush was a loser. Clnton was a loser. We haven't had a real leader for I don't know when. Maybe Kennedy could be our last true leader. Nobody shows any f'ing leadership. It's like these goddamn Boko Haram terrorists and these girls. Im sorry but if there is one f'ing cause to send US Spec Ops into harm's way in my opinion it's that. These girls were completely innocent and these thugs should be shot dead and taken out like the religious Islamist fanatics they are. If there is ever a time to show the Muslim world the US is not going to put up with your BS it's with this situation. But no……we sit on our hands, our big bad $650+ billion dollar defense budget hands like a bunch of cowards. AND YES I DON'T CARE>….LETS SEND A MESSAGE TO THE JIHADIST MUSLIM FANATICS YOU DO THIS ANYTIME ANYWHERE AND WE WILL COME AFTER YOU!!!!!! This whole nonsense of well what if it starts happening all over the place…..we cowboy the f'k up and go after them that's what!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I'm utterly disgusted and am ashamed to call myself an American anymore. We the people have lost complete control of our government. I hope the US and EU and Kiev keeps pushing the eastern defense forces and a full scale civil war breaks out. In fact I hope it draws US troops on the ground in and the full might of NATO. And I hope Russia invades and fights back. My country needs a big fat kick in the balls. I don't want to see US troops killed but I want to see my government eat some f'ing dirt for once! I'm sick of the way we have been throwing our weight around the world. Our foreign policy is a complete disaster and has been for the past 20 years with Clinton, Bush and now Obozo. I mean these two clowns would rather spend time golfing and posting selfies of each their ugly mugs than running a country that is circling the drain.

America has become an utter Ineptocracy!!!!!! Inept leaders voted in by inept Americans!

Victims identities

1 . Unsociable persons Andrey Vasilyevich, 1978 year of birth — ognestrel.2. Zhulkov Alexander Yuryevich, ognestrel.3. Yavorsky Nikolay Anatolyevich, ognestrel.4. Petrov Gennady Igorevich, 1985 year of birth — ognestrel.5. Brazhevsky Andrey Gennadevich, 1987 year of birth — padenie.6. Papura Vadim Vadimovich, 1996 year of birth — padenie.7. Hare Igor Leonidovich, 1968 year of birth — padenie.8. Kushch Ruslan Olegovich, 1984 year of birth — padenie.9. Varenikina Anna Anatolyevna, 1955 year of birth — otravlenie.10. Guelder-roses Anatoly Andreevich, 1976 year of birth — otravlenie.11. Nikitenko Maxim Alekseevich, 1982 year of birth — padenie.12. Ostrozhnyuk Igor Evgenyevich, 1964 year of birth — padenie.13. Bulls Victor Dalkhakovich, 1956 year of birth — padenie.14. Ivanov Igor Vladimirovich, 1986 year of birth — ognestrel.15. Markin Vyacheslav Vladimirovich, 1969 year of birth — padenie.16. Negaturov Vadim Vitalyevich, 1959 year of birth — ozhogi.17. Gnatenko Evgeny Nikolaevich, 1952 year of birth — poisoning gazom.18. The semi-Pole Alla Anatolyevna, 1962 year of birth — poisoning gazom.19. Yakovenko Irina Vladimirovna, 1959 year of birth — poisoning gazom.20. Kushnaryov Gennady Aleksandrovich, 1975 year of birth — poisoning gazom.21. Mishin Sergey Sergeyevich, 1985 year of birth — poisoning gazom.22. Pikalova Svetlana Valeryevna, 1981 year of birth

rupaper.com...

originally posted by: sosobad
a reply to: ALoveSupreme

I added more to my original post

One huge assumption in this video question -- why assume that the Odessa police who are implicated here as cooperating with the red arm-banded 'agent provocateurs' are loyal to the Kiev government? - See more at: www.abovetopsecret.com...

That's the thing, the police intentionally let them provoke the pro-Kiev supporters then stood back and let them kill the anti-Kiev supporters at will, if the police were truly with the anti-Kiev supporters they would have tried to stop the violence against them but they didn't, why? They would have at least tried to save them and would have been attacked by the pro-Kiev supporters also, they were not and there is plenty of video evidence of them standing around letting them die.

I agree that the police's behavior is highly suspect here. As a whole that day, their performance of their duty seemed sporadic -- they equally protected or neglected both groups' safety and let the violence spiral completely out of control.

Knowing what I do about civil service, particularly low level law enforcement in the former Soviet countries, I could dismiss this as simple selfishness and lack of motivation -- that they simply did not want to put their own safety on the line. We have seen many police surrender or give up their weapons so far in this conflict.

However, I do think that the author of that video is right in one respect. The behavior of that particular officer does seem to implicate him as being cooperative with the most violent and armed members of the red arm banded group (i.e. the persons who incited the most violence).

Can we find any more information about him?

a reply to: GreenMtnBoys

Please try to stay on topic.

a reply to: ALoveSupreme

Can we find any more information about him?

I am trying but there seems to be a lack of information, he is gone, nobody knows where. Reports of him fleeing and reports of him hiding in Ukraine, I will try my best and see.

a reply to: ALoveSupreme

So far the answers would sugest that you should put a space before the "?" in the title incase no one sees it !

No way will the east go along with Kiev having voted by something like 90% to side with Russia even if we asume that 10% of the votes were double counted like I am sure some will argue.

The east is the rich part so letting Russia keep 1/3 of the country seems about right to me but quite what this would do to oil future contracts is above me and I would not know if I should be long or short, not that I ever bet.

Our media is so bias that they are saying that Russia is playing politics with gas but tell me what happens to you if you don't pay your gas bill and so far I think that Russia has been more than fair with Kiev but we are bound to see the pipes being blown soon I thinks and that will start a quick run on oil and a profit for an early bird that gets the timing right.

sosobad

Don't forget the 50 people who are missing after the fire not that we know for sure that they realy are missing or if its lies because this has been dropped from Russian news as far as I can see and they would not, should not have dropped it that easily if it was true.

originally posted by: sosobad
Victims identities

1 . Unsociable persons Andrey Vasilyevich, 1978 year of birth — ognestrel.2. Zhulkov Alexander Yuryevich, ognestrel.3. Yavorsky Nikolay Anatolyevich, ognestrel.4. Petrov Gennady Igorevich, 1985 year of birth — ognestrel.5. Brazhevsky Andrey Gennadevich, 1987 year of birth — padenie.6. Papura Vadim Vadimovich, 1996 year of birth — padenie.7. Hare Igor Leonidovich, 1968 year of birth — padenie.8. Kushch Ruslan Olegovich, 1984 year of birth — padenie.9. Varenikina Anna Anatolyevna, 1955 year of birth — otravlenie.10. Guelder-roses Anatoly Andreevich, 1976 year of birth — otravlenie.11. Nikitenko Maxim Alekseevich, 1982 year of birth — padenie.12. Ostrozhnyuk Igor Evgenyevich, 1964 year of birth — padenie.13. Bulls Victor Dalkhakovich, 1956 year of birth — padenie.14. Ivanov Igor Vladimirovich, 1986 year of birth — ognestrel.15. Markin Vyacheslav Vladimirovich, 1969 year of birth — padenie.16. Negaturov Vadim Vitalyevich, 1959 year of birth — ozhogi.17. Gnatenko Evgeny Nikolaevich, 1952 year of birth — poisoning gazom.18. The semi-Pole Alla Anatolyevna, 1962 year of birth — poisoning gazom.19. Yakovenko Irina Vladimirovna, 1959 year of birth — poisoning gazom.20. Kushnaryov Gennady Aleksandrovich, 1975 year of birth — poisoning gazom.21. Mishin Sergey Sergeyevich, 1985 year of birth — poisoning gazom.22. Pikalova Svetlana Valeryevna, 1981 year of birth

rupaper.com...

Thanks!

So that's the best we have -- a list compiled via crowd sourcing on social media.

Makes you wonder if the authorities in Odessa will ever be forthcoming with an official one including forensic examination.

a reply to: VirusGuard

Don't forget the 50 people who are missing after the fire not that we know for sure that they realy are missing or if its lies because this has been dropped from Russian news as far as I can see and they would not, should not have dropped it that easily if it was true. - See more at: www.abovetopsecret.com...

That is true, there is People unaccounted for and no explanation has been given as to why, surely by now they should know what happened to them, why the delay?

originally posted by: ALoveSupreme

originally posted by: sosobad
Victims identities

1 . Unsociable persons Andrey Vasilyevich, 1978 year of birth — ognestrel.2. Zhulkov Alexander Yuryevich, ognestrel.3. Yavorsky Nikolay Anatolyevich, ognestrel.4. Petrov Gennady Igorevich, 1985 year of birth — ognestrel.5. Brazhevsky Andrey Gennadevich, 1987 year of birth — padenie.6. Papura Vadim Vadimovich, 1996 year of birth — padenie.7. Hare Igor Leonidovich, 1968 year of birth — padenie.8. Kushch Ruslan Olegovich, 1984 year of birth — padenie.9. Varenikina Anna Anatolyevna, 1955 year of birth — otravlenie.10. Guelder-roses Anatoly Andreevich, 1976 year of birth — otravlenie.11. Nikitenko Maxim Alekseevich, 1982 year of birth — padenie.12. Ostrozhnyuk Igor Evgenyevich, 1964 year of birth — padenie.13. Bulls Victor Dalkhakovich, 1956 year of birth — padenie.14. Ivanov Igor Vladimirovich, 1986 year of birth — ognestrel.15. Markin Vyacheslav Vladimirovich, 1969 year of birth — padenie.16. Negaturov Vadim Vitalyevich, 1959 year of birth — ozhogi.17. Gnatenko Evgeny Nikolaevich, 1952 year of birth — poisoning gazom.18. The semi-Pole Alla Anatolyevna, 1962 year of birth — poisoning gazom.19. Yakovenko Irina Vladimirovna, 1959 year of birth — poisoning gazom.20. Kushnaryov Gennady Aleksandrovich, 1975 year of birth — poisoning gazom.21. Mishin Sergey Sergeyevich, 1985 year of birth — poisoning gazom.22. Pikalova Svetlana Valeryevna, 1981 year of birth

rupaper.com...

Thanks!

So that's the best we have -- a list compiled via crowd sourcing on social media.

Makes you wonder if the authorities in Odessa will ever be forthcoming with an official one including forensic examination.

It is not looking that way, Kiev is stalling and dragging their feet, makes you wonder why. They may be fearful of telling lies or worse they may be fearful of telling the truth. If it was them and evidence shows that they would have a lot more people protesting besides just eastern

a reply to: GreenMtnBoys

Calm down!!

I really get your rant and I agree with almost all of it, but I don't want to see German soldiers, or US soldiers, or any NATO soldiers being sacrificed on the altar of profit for the oligarch overlords behind our usurped Governments AND this crisis.


*Actually, do not calm down...

I made the same thread post to Reddit, in case anybody is interested.

redd.it...