Severe Weather Outbreaks 2014

Heads up to all those living in the area's highlighted below.

Spring 2014 has been a quiet tornado season thus far, but that's about to change this weekend, if the predicted forecasts that meteorologists are looking at hold true. Weather experts say conditions are lining up for a series of powerful tornadoes to hit an area ranging between Tennessee and Texas from Saturday through Monday. The National Weather Service predicts a "significant multi-day severe event" in the South plains on Sunday, moving into the Mississippi Valley on Monday.

The extreme warnings stem from an interaction between an East-moving low-pressure system over the Rockies mixing with wetness from the Gulf of Mexico. That will cause the creation of supercell thunderstorms, Slate's Eric Holthaus explains, all kept in place in the South-Southwest by a high-pressure system in Canada. That makes the area ripe for a "big severe threat" this weekend, according to The Weather Channel, an extra level on top of today's "severe threat."

Holthaus notes that the best historical comparisons to a weather pattern like this point to some of the worst tornado outbreaks in U.S. history. That includes the April 26, 1991, stretch of tornadoes from Texas to Iowa that caused a billion dollars in damage and included a rare F5-strength tornado. For those in need of a refresher, here are FEMA's guidelines for how to prepare for tornadoes.

[url=http://www.thewire.com/national/2014/04/forecasters-are-already-predicting-a-massive-tornado-outbreak-this-weekend/361156/#disqus_thread]link[/ur l]

Eye's on the skies. Stay safe everyone.

www.thewire.com...

Chemtrail that Canadian High......was it BC Grown?

I'm in Dallas... that looks troubling.

On the flip side, I work for a storm-restoration company so I generally look forward to severe weather as it makes my job much more lucrative.

So is South Dakota it danger zone of the nados??

My madre lives east of rapid, inside the orange zone.

I ask because what is posted doesn't mention SD and nothing to click to read more

a reply to: MrLimpet

Seeing as I'm in the orange on your map...I'll be parked in this thread for the weekend.

Thanks for the heads up. I can always count on ATS for the first word in weather events.

I never bother to turn on the weather channel anymore. It's always some prerecorded show that has nothing to do with weather these days.

Now, off to check generator, batteries and candles. And the fences on my goat pens.

Des

a reply to: MrLimpet

That's why we don't live in Kansas Anymore--- On average Central KS got 100 twisters per year.
Last summer we had an F3 come within a 1/4 mile of the old house south of Wichita.

Here in Western Colorado we supposed to get snow on Saturday. Which totally sucks because I'm chomping at the bit to get this years garden going.

And this means what? The map shown is a map of what is called Tornado Alley. The season normally starts about Feb, and runs until November. Living in this area, tends to have a bit more of a risk of Tornados that will hit the area, so those who live in this area, tend to take a bit more precaution and keep an eye out on the storms in the area.

a reply to: MrLimpet

Arkansas here....always prepare for the worst and hope for the best! Ya know, the usual.

This is the reason why we told our realtor that even all we got was a cement slab over a basement that was just a kitchen, our house absolutely had to have a basement and a kitchen. We had two tornadoes within 5 miles while we lived in an apartment complex up here. Now, we have a basement.

We are already assembling the TBK - toddler basement kit - for the season.

I grew up in Kansas and this is just a part of life like earthquakes on the coast.

Looks like there's a good chance for the weekend and most of next week. I can't see your map where I'm at right now though.
Stay safe everyone, I'd bet a good amount that there will be tornado producing storms coming up.

Saturday, April 26

Scattered severe thunderstorms and tornadoes likely by and in the evening in south NE, northwest MO, KS except extreme east, west and central OK (excluding west panhandle), east TX panhandle and west TX east of a line from near Childress to Del Rio and as far east at San Antonio and Dallas. TOR:CON - 4 south NE, central KS, west OK, northwest TX; 3 rest of area.

Severe thunderstorms are likely to continue past midnight in these areas and possibly spread into northeast NE, east OK, and northeast TX overnight. TOR:CON - 2 to 3 in these additional areas. At the moment the air looks rather dry and capped (warm layer aloft), which might hold down the tornado threat.

TOR:CON Saturday into Saturday Night

KS central - 4
KS northeast - 3 to 4
KS southeast night - 2 to 3
MO northwest - 3
NE south - 4
NE northeast night - 2 to 3
OK west half excluding west panhandle - 4
OK east night - 2 to 3
TX east panhandle, northwest - 4
TX strip near Childress and Fort Worth to Del Rio and San Antonio - 3
TX northeast night - 2 to 3
other areas - 1 or less

Sunday, April 27

Severe thunderstorms and isolated tornadoes in west and south SD, north and east NE, west and south IA, MO, west-central and south IL, west KY, west TN, extreme northwest MS, AR, northwest LA, east KS, east OK, east TX from east of Dallas to northwest of Houston eastward. TOR:CON - 4 east NE, southwest IA, east KS, MO, east OK, AR, northeast TX; 3 rest of area

TOR:CON Sunday

AR - 4
IA southwest - 4
IA northwest, southeast - 3
IL west-central, south - 3
KS east - 4
KY west - 3
LA northwest - 3
MO - 4
MS northwest - 3
NE east - 4
NE north - 3
OK east - 4
SD west, south - 3
TN west - 3
TX northeast - 4
other areas - 1 or less

Monday, April 28

Severe thunderstorms and isolated tornadoes in southeast SD, southwest MN, north and east IA, IL except northeast, west-central and south IN, west and central KY, west and middle TN, north and west AL, MS, LA, upper-coastal TX, south and east AR, southeast MO. TOR:CON - 5 south IL, southwest IN, west KY, west TN, MS; 4 north and central LA, northwest AL, middle TN, central KY, southeast IN; 3 rest of area

TOR:CON Monday

AL northwest - 4
AL northeast, southwest - 3
IA north, east - 3
IL south - 5
IL central, northwest - 3
IN southwest - 4
IN west-central, southeast - 3
KY west - 5
KY central - 4
LA north - 4
LA southwest - 3
LA southeast - 2 to 3
MN southwest - 3
MO southeast - 3
MS - 5
SD southeast - 3
TN west - 5
TN middle - 4
TX upper-coastal - 2 to 3
other areas - 1 or less

Tuesday, April 29

Severe thunderstorms, heavy rain and isolated tornadoes in north half IL (as far north as Chicago and Rockford), north, central, and southeast IN, west and south OH, west-central and south WV, east half KY, east half TN, southwest VA, west, central, and southeast NC, SC, north, central, and southwest GA, AL, east-central and south MS, southeast LA, west FL panhandle. TOR:CON - 4 AL, south MS, northwest GA; 3 east KY, east TN, south OH, southwest WV; 2 to 3 rest of area

TOR:CON Tuesday

AL - 4
FL west panhandle - 2 to 3
GA northwest - 4
GA central, southwest, northeast - 2 to 3
IL north half - 2 to 3
IN north, central, southeast - 2 to 3
KY east - 3
LA southeast - 2 to 3
MS south - 4
MS east-central - 3
NC west, central, southeast - 2 to 3
OH south - 3
OH northwest - 2 to 3
SC - 2 to 3
TN east - 3
VA southwest - 2 to 3
WV southwest, west-central - 3
other areas - 1 or less

Wednesday, April 30

Severe thunderstorms in VA (except southwest), central and east NC, central and east SC, east-central and south GA, central and east FL panhandle, north half FL peninsula. TOR:CON - 4 southeast VA, central and east NC; 3 east SC; 2 to 3 rest of area

TOR:CON Wednesday

FL central and east panhandle, north half peninsula - 2
GA east-central, south - 2 to 3
NC central, east - 4
SC east - 3
SC central - 2 to 3
VA southeast - 4
VA north, central - 3
other areas - 1 or less

Thursday, May 1

No severe thunderstorms. TOR:CON - near zero

Link

Move over Des. I hope you don't mind, I'll be parked right next to you.

This time of year we sleep with the TV on in the bedroom and tuned into the weather channel. If that BEEP, BEEP, BEEP goes off, my clothes and shoe's are an arm's reach away.

Between all the stress I am having with this move, I am keeping the wine glasses right on the counter.

originally posted by: stirling
Chemtrail that Canadian High......was it BC Grown?

You have to love it.. a regularly occurring Alberta Clipper
is on back order. Let's hold off for a big bowls of Gulf gumbo.

This is never good, and the wait for a 'normal' spring weather
system could result in everything the engineers have done to
forestall the inevitable and usual isobar action over NAmerica
making for a real nasty and overdue weekend wash.
Did I just infer the weather is being manipulated? Yes I did.

And my UPS just gave up the ghost again. I hate batteries....

The ones I really worry about are my folks who are sitting in an ancient pile of limestone (over 130 years) in the country with no clear warning system.

Well I live in Omaha..... But luckily I will be leaving and flying to Vegas for the week so I'll deal with it when i get back.

Southern Illinios here.

Thanks for the heads up. Going to make sure the cb weather alert radio is charged, and all gear is in place.

Stay safe folks.

originally posted by: Sremmos80
So is South Dakota it danger zone of the nados??

My madre lives east of rapid, inside the orange zone.

I ask because what is posted doesn't mention SD and nothing to click to read more

Take a look at Havox's post. 6 down from your post.

SD is listed on Sunday & Monday.

a reply to: MrLimpet

Ya I saw that one, thanks

For anyone who doesn't know what TorCon is

TOR:CON Value Descriptions

8+ Very high probability of a tornado
6 - High probability of a tornado
4 - Moderate chance of a tornado nearby, but hail and/or high wind gusts possible
2 - Low chance of a tornado, but hail and/or high wind gusts possible
0 - Near-zero chance of a tornado or a severe thunderstorm

The TOR:CON index ranges from 0 to 10. Multiply the value by 10 to get your percentage chance of a tornado within 50 miles of a location. For example, a TOR:CON index of 6 means there's a 60% chance of a tornado within 50 miles of any location in the indicated area.

a reply to: Havox

Good to know. Great info!

Thanks for the info and explanation.

Warning for TN