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I don't see us going to war for Eastern Ukraine. And probably not for Ukraine proper
Gas maybe a part, but it's not the only part.
originally posted by: BobAthome
a reply to: SrWingCommander
yes Historically,,u may very well be absolutely correct, when you say ,"So I think Poland is the tripwire".
With the mysterious Plane incident happened, this was very, suspicious too say the least.
And then there is the ww2 grievence.
But mostly it is because of this historic Polish Tradition,,
Poles and Russians don't mix well,, in my opinion.
And like water and oil, only leads too problems.
originally posted by: SrWingCommander
I haven't posted in awhle, or even lurked, but the current world situation brought me back.
Lot's of post on the Ukraine situation. And it seems the prevailing concern is war with Russia. While I don't think that it is highly likely, it is certainly a more realistic possibility since say the late 80s.
Several have been comparing the US and Russian militaries. Which is fine, but one must look at several questions before any realistic comparison of forces and views of conflict can be made.
1) How far is Putin willing to go?
My current assumption is he wants at best a "buffer" between him and NATO. Poland and the Baltic States aligned with NATO makes the Russian's nervous. the Ukraine going NATO would be viewed as unacceptable. A huge portion of Russian military strategy is still focused around preventing a Western (German) repeat of WWII. At worst he wants to push the old Warsaw pact, but I don't think he is THAT crazy, as that would include Poland, Eastern Germany, and what was Czechoslovakia. OR he wants better staging to the Middle East. For the moment lets say he wants a strong Buffer, and maybe better staging to influence both Europe and the Middle East.
2) What is NATO and the US's line?
I don't see us going to war for Eastern Ukraine. And probably not for Ukraine proper (but I am not positive on that). Poland or the Baltic States are associate NATO members so by treaty we are supposed to defend them. Currently there is a hodgepodge group of US fighters in Poland, say a Groups worth, maybe a Wing. So I think Poland is the tripwire. I don't see Putin going into Poland/.
3) What strategy is used to defend Poland and/or Ukraine?
If it comes to conflict I don't see anyone "marching to Moscow" as stated in so many of these threads. If anything....a line will be drawn somewhere in the middle of the Ukraine, US and NATO will move forces into the area and essentially set up the "Fulda Gap Defense" only further east than it was in the actual Fulda Gap. NATO would fight a defensive action if Russia came across. NATO would win this initial action after 7 to 10 days. ASSUMING it could get sufficient forces in place. While The Russian army is not the force it was in the 80s, neither are NATO ground forces. If I get time I may post about that later. IF NATO cannot get size able forces in place, Russia can gobble up Ukraine almost as fast as it did Crimea, and the West will probably do nothing but sanctions....(which with the dollars instability might cause more harm to the West than Russia) and seriously draw the line at Poland.
4) What happens after that?
If there is a NATO v Russian action in eastern Europe, if it stays conventional....it ends after a very violent week or two of combat. At that point Russian would have to decide if they want to continue, and if so how far? NATO would have to do the same, or do both sided could just call it all off as their immediately available forces will be severely depleted on both sides OR does someone lose their mind and start using nukes or mobilizing for extended and continued combat. That's a whole other thread.
For this reason, I have a hard time seeing the NATO and Russia fighting. But the world is getting weird.
originally posted by: SrWingCommander
The British could likely only deploy 1 or 2 brigades, the Germans maybe 3 to 4 Panzer Brigades. I don't know what France, Belgium, The Netherlands, or anyone else could or would send. But that's the trick. Right now the only thing between Putin and Germany are the Ukrainian and Polish Armies, and western Air power (which would be a huge equalizer, but let's not kid ourselves, the WEST will actually have to FIGHT to gain air superiority).
originally posted by: SrWingCommander
4) What happens after that?
If there is a NATO v Russian action in eastern Europe, if it stays conventional....it ends after a very violent week or two of combat. At that point Russian would have to decide if they want to continue, and if so how far? NATO would have to do the same, or do both sided could just call it all off as their immediately available forces will be severely depleted on both sides OR does someone lose their mind and start using nukes or mobilizing for extended and continued combat. That's a whole other thread.
For this reason, I have a hard time seeing the NATO and Russia fighting. But the world is getting weird.
IF NATO cannot get size able forces in place, Russia can gobble up Ukraine almost as fast as it did Crimea, and the West will probably do nothing but sanctions....(which with the dollars instability might cause more harm to the West than Russia) and seriously draw the line at Poland.
So, I would say that we would see a defensive war of attrition and slowing down the enemy to buy more time for futher major defensive lines to the west and to give the US a chance of rallying and transporting their force to europe.
But it would take a massive force on the ground to do this, more than Russia can muster atm.