ATS Think Tank: Predicting Outcomes at the Bundy Ranch! Is A 2nd Civil War Immiment?

reply to post by DietJoke

The mindset of the Alamo guys is long gone.

For one thing, let's get our terms right - A Civil War is what happens when a country wars against itself. A Revolution is when a country wars against its government. Which one are we talking about?

This could have the potential to spark either one. Reportedly, Nevada is siding with Bundy at least in speech. Of course, talk is cheap. The feds assume they have the power to override Bundy's agreements with the state because they are the fed. Bundy pays his grazing fees to the state. Any major overreach on the part of the feds could spark dissent at the state level causing governors and states to rebel - Civil War. We know that there are states that are none too happy with the way that the feds are acting now.

On the other hand, if the states don't step up. Government approval with the people in general is at an all time low. One too many very public incidents at the wrong time that can be played as the government getting heavy handed, and really Bundy is a 67-year-old man, not a cult leader or a militia group (Waco or Ruby Ridge), isn't going to play well once the incident spreads around. Revolution.

Remember, when Ruby Ridge and Waco happened, we were all much better off economically and much less inclined to lash out in frustration.

DietJoke

Thanks to everybody for their replies!

I am getting the general feeling from my fellow ATS members, that this event has a short window of opportunity to become overblown or it will evolve into a stalemate or devolve into an impossible logistical nightmare.

I am also getting the general feeling that if things do boil over, that my fellow ATS members feel the Feds will win the battle!

Finally I am getting the general feeling from my fellow ATS members that if there is a battle and the Feds do win, that the rest of the USA will do nothing about that and the Bundy Ranch Massacre will simply pass into American History as a footnote akin to Waco and Ruby Ridge etc!

Does anybody else concur with those feelings so far?

Pretty much.

Now shush! MSNBC is stating that Bush caused something bad to happen against Obama again!

I'm going to be honest here, so please don't get offended. This is what I see around here in Illinois.

Nobody gives a damned. I ask everybody I know if they see what is happening there, nobody has heard of it. And they really don't care. Which is sad and it tells me where the the "state of revolution" is in the minds of the people.

There will be no revolution friends, not until it affects eery single person, in their house, in their yards, and on their dinner table. Hell the shrinking paychecks aren't even enough to cause a revolution, people will just go out and get second or third jobs.

Ask around if you live east of there, nobody gives a damn. Which is sad because in the long run it affects each and every one of us on a smaller scale.

America will not see a revolution any time soon. That is a fact.

reply to post by liejunkie01


The American Revolution was carried out by a minority.

What is needed is a small but very committed group who will fight, then that group needs the sympathy of a critical mass (at least 30%) of the rest.

So, no, you wouldn't necessarily find that your average person is going to be plugged in to this.

Uh no. Not even the smallest chance. Most likely nothing will happen, as of now the average person sees the story as some guy who has been ripping taxpayers (ie. them) off for 30 year. They also see crazy militia people talking about war over moving some cows. I mean have you seen these guys videos? You stick those on the news and the people will start putting pressure on the Fed to do something about these nut bags with guns. So this will end one of two ways, nobody will know what Bundy Ranch is or it will be remembered as a place where some crazy militia people with guns got killed after starting trouble over some cows. I know reality opening the door and peaking its head in kind or ruins the fanatsies but, to 99.5% of the American public militias/patriots groups ect. are crazy, cultish, racist people with guns. This idea is only reinforce by the militia people that make videos and by silly talk of civil war.

reply to post by ketsuko


Can you please compare the numbers of citizens and government of now compared to when the revolution happened?

This will not be the same.

Completely different times with completely different mindsets.

reply to post by DietJoke


I constantly find myself questioning whether the US Govt. is acting in the "best interest" of the citizens. I also find myself questioning whether any of the politicians truly believe in "by the people, for the people", because if that was the case, and they truly believed they were doing what their constituents wanted, than incidents like this would never escalate to where we see them today...

If we EVER want to get our country back we NEED to set term limits on ALL politicians, and not just the President. We need new, fresh ideas in our Govt. We need to get away from politicians who have been serving for 20-30 terms now. We need out with the old and in with the new. A president can only serve 2 terms... Why can't we have that be the same for all of Congress? If we truly want change we need people in the Govt. who can bring change... Now the tricky situation is what congressman in their right mind would vote for bringing in term limits to their career field? By doing this they are essentially killing off their jobs. So the question begs, how do the people do this? Can citizens develop a piece of legislature, get the signatures (whether it be 100k or 10 million, whatever the necessary figure is) to present to the Govt. that they ARE NOT working in our best interest...

Honestly, is this even a realistic idea to have? Are the logistics of it impossible? If an idea like this gained traction do you believe it could snow ball into something real?

I'd really like to get others thoughts on this? Because I understand that I'm touching in on a bigger picture subject, but I do believe it can be related to any incident we see today where politicians are involved (ie, Harry Ried)...

I'm only 29 years old... Before the day I die (hopefully 50-60 years from now) I will see term limits in congress, well, I hope for that at least....

This will hardly start a civil war. I don't think there will EVER be an armed uprising of any significance against the US government ever again. The American people are way too divided against each other. Hell as Americans we can't even all agree on owning guns. It's pathetic. I see this further encroaching on the 2nd Amendment if anything. Another excuse to get all the guns from these "crazy" militias. If some sort of armed conflict does break out I hope the protesters or militias exact a heavy toll before they are put down. A lot of Americans are sick and tired of our government but then you've got a lot that are completely brainwashed.

reply to post by DietJoke


Probably not , however with the eclipse this week , whom ever took action the last few days may not have their plans work out.
What that can mean ,dunno. Still thinking. 1%

reply to post by ketsuko


I also wanted to directly reply to this statement.

So, no, you wouldn't necessarily find that your average person is going to be plugged in to this.

You are right about this.

The average person will call 911 when they feel threatened from people trying to revolt. "911 what is your emergency?, yes my neighbors are gathering their guns talking of armed revolution, I am fearful of my families security, operator- ok mam were sending someone now".

The mindset now days is to fear. Not fight.

30% of 300,000,000 is 9,000,000. They have/ can construct fema camps/ detention centers, capable of holding 9 million people in 50 states.

It is going to take 150,000,000 + people to create a succesful revolution.I don't see that happening.

liejunkie01
I'm going to be honest here, so please don't get offended. This is what I see around here in Illinois.

Nobody gives a damned. I ask everybody I know if they see what is happening there, nobody has heard of it. And they really don't care. Which is sad and it tells me where the the "state of revolution" is in the minds of the people.

There will be no revolution friends, not until it affects eery single person, in their house, in their yards, and on their dinner table. Hell the shrinking paychecks aren't even enough to cause a revolution, people will just go out and get second or third jobs.

Ask around if you live east of there, nobody gives a damn. Which is sad because in the long run it affects each and every one of us on a smaller scale.

America will not see a revolution any time soon. That is a fact.

edit on 12-4-2014 by liejunkie01 because: (no reason given)

I agree.

I do believe there is a revolution happening in the MINDS of alot Americans though.

reply to post by DietJoke


This won't be a very popular response, but I don't care. The best outcome for this situation would be for a few hundred or so federal tyrants to be shipped home in a pine box... it's time for the states and the residents of the states to reclaim their sovereignty.

reply to post by DietJoke

The feds have this guy surrounded. There's a division sized element of light infantry (militia) headed down thataway. The feds have control of the airspace and are in control of all lines of communication (including access to water). I don't see any significant persistent media presence. The state government and local law enforcement are mute. This is going to end badly very quickly for the government ... or end in embarrassment for the militia.

I hope the militia guys have some sort of leadership capability. I hope they're not stupid enough to believe occupying the Bundy ranch is going to solve anything as a form of armed intervention. I don't believe either of the two to be true.

Revolution ... not from there. But, if some nut-cases start a shoot-em up with the feds in lots of different places ... like this ... the pot might get stirred in a big way.

ETA: Wanna know what the government thinks? Drive by their buildings at night this weekend and see if the lights are burning.


ETA2: ... And the government quits!! Yay people!!

Maybe not imminent, but I definitely believe it is certain within the next 10 years easily. I think all that remains is the determinate factor that* resides on who we see succeed Barack Obama after his second term ends in 2016. From that point on anything is possible. If it is Rand Paul (which it won't be), is the only scenario I see a Civil War II not happening in, aside from, of course, the usual 'dud' events that the past 2 decades have been rife with. (Crimea for one.)

Davian
Maybe not imminent, but I definitely believe it is certain within the next 10 years easily. I think all that remains is the determinate factor the resides on who we see succeed Barack Obama after his second term ends in 2016. From that point on anything is possible. If it is Rand Paul (which it won't be), is the only scenario I see a Civil War II not happening in, aside from, of course, the usual 'dud' events that the past 2 decades have been rife with. (Crimea for one.)

As long as Hillary doesn't take office come election time.

I think this country will flip its bricks.

I'll quit life in general.

liejunkie01
reply to post by ketsuko

 

Can you please compare the numbers of citizens and government of now compared to when the revolution happened?

This will not be the same.

Completely different times with completely different mindsets.

Maybe, maybe not.

This is certainly unique in the U.S., but I think that the government has to understand that this could go very poorly for them. It just doesn't play well to murder 67-year-old men over turtles which is how the government is framing this.

a reply to: liejunkie01

it only takes one

thats the truth

thats why they are afraid