originally posted by: the2ofusr1
No need for the US to invade Canada and take it over .Both countries answer to the same over lords .
Yes the Blackwater merc.s showed up early on in the discussion and I think that the sniping that took place in Kiev were attributed to them
Actually they are not on my list of top suspect:
1) Just some overeager people in Yanukovych administration
2) False flag operation by Putin (if Yanukovych opened fire on bigger scale, he would be unable to ask the West for money, and would be forced to rely
3) Just someone lost control on security forces/Maidan side (there was big mess, and if he had a gun and saw that his men are being beaten...).
There are pics in other threads pointing that fact out but it is argued that despite them being a American firm they are for hire from any
country willing to pay .
I would not be shocked, but I would expect their involvement being rather small.
So what are the protesters protesting about on the Midan square ? Do you have any links that might answer ?
1) Yanukovych tried to play neutral policy ("neutral" means ask both the EU and Russia for money by threatening to join the other side)
2) He refused to sing a deal meaning joining the EU in the long run.
-Western Ukraine feels absolutely no affiliation with Russia. (no more "brothers" than other countries that used to occupy Ukraine like Poland or
Austro-Hungary). In western edges of Ukraine, Russians are new guests who ruled it for the first time in history from 1939
-Young generation treat the SU as old history, while they saw the West (on tourist trips, shopping, student exchange or illegal work)
-Kiev is in the west (Orange) Ukraine, a stronghold of opposition (it not worked in favour of Yanukovych) To make it more ironic it's also partially
Russian language speaking region.
-joining EU sounds for Ukrainians like a chance to develop economical and guaranteed right to work legally in the West
-Ukrainians see Poland - both countries economically were not far in 1989, while now they diverged - Poland is much richer, diametrically less
corrupted and part of the EU (technically speaking it had those features already a while before joining the EU, but in the last decade the gap
(If it's still unclear - let's imagine saying some Mexicans that the US offers them joining the US and they no longer have sneak through border. But
here is even more tempting because the EU is a looser federation.)
3) Yanukovych ordered to beat a small bunch of students occupying Maidan Square
It's seems like a serious error:
-there was a small group of students very low temperature, they might have dispersed at their own
-now there was a cause - instead of small group, united by hard to explain cause "pro-Europe", he got much bigger group: "anti-Yanukovych"
-to build "anti-Yanukovych" group helped: rampant corruption and economic crisis (he was neither fully responsible for any of those, but as
president he got blamed for all such stuff)
4) Without Putin mending there would be small discontent in East Ukraine ( a few demonstration, not more). Those people would not die for Yanukovych
(especially after showing his private palace on TV), they would just say that the new clique would not be any better.
5) Putin invaded Crimea and later east Ukraine - it seems that he miscalculated:
- assumed that Ukraine is in total mess unable to defend at all (it's just in partial mess, unable to defend effectively)
- that he has high support in east Ukraine (not special)
- he neglected that some local oligarchs dislike him and his not the only guy bringing to game paid thugs
From geopolitical perspective his move sounds now silly. Instead of invading Ukraine, he should have increase gas prices, force Ukrainians to make
unpopular reforms and see how new gov looses support. With that he could try to regain his position in a few years. Now instead he got tiny Crimea (2
mln people, poor, needs cash from any central gov that controls it) and became a public enemy in most of the Ukraine.
Putin behaviour makes sense if:
-we assume miscalculation
-we assume that he is indeed desperate, because if Ukrainians can overthrow a corrupted autocrat, then such success may inspire also Russians.
So far the reaction of the West is very mute, such inaction is quite openly mocked in my country (with jokes that Obama threats that he would
un-friend Putin on Facebook). Whole inciting was done indirectly - by earlier supporting pro-democracy NGOs or even by showing Ukrainians nearby
Slavic countries which implemented successful reforms.