posted on Apr, 8 2014 @ 05:52 PM
This is a pretty cool article in which a group calling themselves The Good Judgement Project
asking regular, ordinary folks to make predictions about global political events and then comparing their accuracy to those made by the professional
intelligence community. Turns out, the average Joe, with access to just what he can find on Google search has a better success rate than the CIA & NSA
pros who have access to all the top secret info they can handle.
So You Think You're Smarter Than A CIA Agent
For the past three years, Rich and 3,000 other average people have been quietly making probability estimates about everything from Venezuelan gas
subsidies to North Korean politics as part of , an experiment put together by three well-known psychologists and some people inside the intelligence
According to one report, the predictions made by the Good Judgment Project are often better even than intelligence analysts with access to classified
information, and many of the people involved in the project have been astonished by its success at making accurate predictions.
When Rich, who is in her 60s, first heard about the experiment, she didn't think she would be especially good at predicting world events. She didn't
know a lot about international affairs, and she hadn't taken much math in school.
But she signed up, got a little training in how to estimate probabilities from the people running the program, and then was given access to a website
that listed dozens of carefully worded questions on events of interest to the intelligence community, along with a place for her to enter her
numerical estimate of their likelihood.
She's in the top 1 percent of the 3,000 forecasters now involved in the experiment, which means she has been classified as a superforecaster, someone
who is extremely accurate when predicting stuff
They say Rich is 30% more accurate than the intelligence pros, proving that the term "government intelligence" is a contradiction in terms.
It looks like they may be recruiting for new forecasters in the next few weeks so maybe anybody who thinks they might be a little bit psychic or just
likes to make wild guesses about geopolitical world events can apply to participate in the project to see just how accurate they can be when someone
Anyone interested can register at the site posted at the top of this thread. Good luck and happy predicting.