Is Obamacare support up or is it down? AP confirms both!

Well, this might be a little awkward for some folks around the media and net who have grabbed onto one poll or the other to declare it the definitive statement of the mood of the nation.

Polls often diverge by a few points, but it's rare to see well-respected polls come to opposing conclusions about the public's take on an issue. In the last week, however, an Associated Press-GfK poll found support for President Barack Obama's health care overhaul at a new low while a Washington Post-ABC News poll showed it had hit a new high.

They can't BOTH be correct, right? Well.....actually..Yes. In this case, it seems, they were both correct.

The seemingly contradictory findings stem more from question wording and timing than from either poll doing something wrong or even misrepresenting public opinion.

It seems it really comes down to one key difference and I seriously doubt it's one that was done intentionally. These polling services don't TRY to blow their own numbers to the point of opposite findings on the same issues, on or about the same time. Different results? Of course. That's the nature of political polling. OPPOSING results? No. Not intentional in my view, but it's caused quite a stir.

The difference is 2 choices versus 3, according to the article. One poll asked people if they Favored or Opposed, while the other added the third option of NEITHER favor or oppose. Apparently, the one offering the 3rd choice had enough people take it to measurably skew the results and show the statistical flaw likely inherent in the other.

The difference between the two polls lies in that neutral group, which tends to be more Democratic than the overall public. About half of them in each of AP's recent polls identify as Democrats, and their demographics generally lean Democratic: mostly women, only about half white, less likely to have formal education and younger than those who explicitly support or oppose the law. Half in the latest poll said they approve of the way Obama is handling his job as president.

Source

There is more to it and more suggested factors, so reading the whole story on this is important. Particularly given the sensitive politics involved and emotions it tends to stir in folks.

In this case, it seems, the emotions were valid, as far as they went, all around. Not because both polls were right or even to suggest one was actually right. It seems the data suggests serious flaws to consider in the results themselves.

I suppose most people around here could have saved them a lot of work for thinking about this by just pointing to the two opposite poll results and saying "Doh! Broken!", eh?

reply to post by Wrabbit2000

Just enough for each side to make their argument and take their stance.

Business as usual in American politics.

**steps aside to watch the endless bickering begin**

How can they have a poll with "neither" as an option.
Obamacare affects everyone, unless you are in Congress or have an exemption.

reply to post by Wrabbit2000


Hee hee, sorry Wrabbit looks like you're the big game in town tonight. Really I'm not stalking you.

So last night I replied to just this issue saying that polls can (do) lie. Objectively it follows that they can also tell the truth and more often than not differing versions of the truth. My post was deleted.

Lies, damn lies and statistics. I'm mostly surprised about the negative polls lately as they don't seem to follow the PC mandate from Washington DC. Guess the pollsters are feeling braver these days.

Don't delete me...

reply to post by mugger


Recall those Man on the Street interviews we occasionally see? You have to ask? (laugh)

Seriously tho.. I imagine the Neither is the same as the 'Other' or people who can't decide which side of the debate most angered them last. I hate to be so down about the state of political discussion these days but..well? It's an ugly picture out there at times.

Things like this absolutely do not help, eh? Talk about handing both sides a truck full of handguns with just a few bullets each. It makes me really wonder what the value of polling is. It's rarely right on elections and that's when they dump the mega-bucks into it. I am a bit surprised by how profoundly they got this one wrong though. A lot of hate and discontent has come from both sides having mutually exclusive ...correct.. positions.

Err...I doubt I'll ever have cause to say that last sentence again in life, for how rare those words actually DO go together. Anyone got some aspirin? My headache is big with this kind of thing.

I don't know if "age" was a factor on the "neither" poll.

But if some of the answers came from people on Medicare or SSI, that may be why they would say "neither".

Another "neither" answer could come from people already on Medicaid.

More "neithers" could come from people on long term disability (private that would include private insurance as well) or have had insurance at work for a long time already and don't feel *threatened*.

Most of the above may not be up to date or even all that concerned about Obama.Care in general because they are simply not affected.

We need to remember that the *full effects* have been delayed.

reply to post by xuenchen


I take your point about other factors and the original article mentions that as well. It is a long article and well worth clicking over to read all of it.

I think the main point is, two nationally respected and trusted polling services came out with opposite ends of result for the same general group of people on the same general issue.

Perhaps they need to read each others polls more often so they can at least be aware of major danger for numbers which can't logically exist. I mean, they can't all actually be right, when they are mutually exclusive, eh?

reply to post by xuenchen


I have the strong feeling that this has to do more with propaganda and the upcoming mid term elections than anything else, well beside which polling groups are been targeted by choice.

Is very common to see shifting of topics and polling results whenever political parties are soon to be exposed to peoples choices at the voting both.

I reckon what most people think about any given thing all comes down to what they saw on TV today.

Hey, this is wonderful. Something for everyone. Just believe whichever you wish to believe and be happy.

Never mind about the truth. We all know that no longer matters at all.

reply to post by Wrabbit2000


Poll for Obamacare.

1. Do you;
A)like Obamacare and think it is wonderful
B)or do you hate tiny kittens?

2. Did;
A) Obamacare make your life better
B)or are you racist?

3. What would you rather do?
A) Enroll in Obamacare
B) Encourage people to die


4. What do you think of Obama?
A) He is awesome and should be president for life.
B) He is great and should be supreme leader for life.

5. (Pick just one answer) I would like to;
A) Have Obamacare
B) Enroll in Obamacare
C) Enjoy Obamacare
D) Get Obamacare
E) All of the above.

reply to post by beezzer



Thanks for making this my day, I just could not stop laughing at the options in you poll.

reply to post by beezzer


Now Mr. Bunny, that would be a stacked and bias poll to funnel all answers to one outcome. That wouldn't be fair!

You don't think they really do that...do ya? (innocent smile)

~Lucidity
Hey, this is wonderful. Something for everyone. Just believe whichever you wish to believe and be happy.

Never mind about the truth. We all know that no longer matters at all.

Well, how will anyone ever know the truth unless they just mindlessly believe the talking heads? And even then, aren't they really just choosing they are going to have blind faith?